UFC Nashville Fight Card: Odds, Lines, Prop Bets, Predictions, Picks
Saturday's UFC Nashville fight card features a potential changing of the guard in the heavyweight division in the main event. In that contest, former UFC heavyweight title challenger, and all-time UFC knockout leader, Derrick Lewis faces Tallison Teixeira, who is entering his second UFC contest. In the UFC Fight Night co-main event, two-time UFC welterweight title challenger Stephen Thompson meets the rising Gabriel Bonfim at 170 pounds. We look at the betting odds, line movement, potential prop bets, and picks for the UFC Nashville main card.
UFC Nashville takes place at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN. ESPN and ESPN+ carry the fight card.
UFC Nashville Fight Card Main Event: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions - Derrick Lewis Vs. Tallison Teixeira
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - JULY 11: Derrick Lewis poses on the scale during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in ... More on July 11, 2025 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Derrick Lewis (28-12-0-1) is the No. 9 fighter in the official UFC heavyweight rankings. The 40-year-old former UFC title challenger is coming off a May 2024 knockout win over Rodrigo Nascimento. Lewis, who owns the record for most knockouts in UFC history with 15, is 2-4 in his past six trips to the Octagon dating back to February 2022.
Lewis has been with the UFC since 2014. He also has the UFC record for most finishes in the heavyweight division with 15. No active UFC heavyweight has as many fights in the Octagon as Lewis does at 29. Lewis has a UFC heavyweight record eight fight-night bonus awards.
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - JULY 11: Tallison Teixeira of Brazil poses on the scale during the UFC Fight ... More Night weigh-in on July 11, 2025 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Tallison Teixeira (8-0) joined the UFC in 2024 with a knockout win on a Dana White Contender Series card. The 25-year-old made his official UFC debut in February 2025, scoring a first-round knockout, and a 'Performance of the Night' bonus in a win over Justin Tafa.
The UFC is wasting no time in throwing Teixeira into the deep end of the heavyweight pool, giving him a veteran opponent in a main event contest. All eight of Teixeira's career wins have come via first-round stoppage (seven knockouts, on submission). He has been a pro since 2021. He is ranked No. 13 in the UFC's heavyweight weight class.
When the opening betting odds were first published for Lewis vs. Teixeira, Teixeira opened as the -200 betting favorite over the +165 Lewis. The betting line has shifted. Today, Teixeira is -300 to Lewis's +240.
Lewis has picked up 72 percent of the bets on the UFC Nashville main event, but Teixeira has 71 percent of the handle.
SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - FEBRUARY 09: Tallison Teixeira of Brazil reacts after a knockout victory against ... More Justin Tafa of New Zealand in a heavyweight fight during the UFC 312 event at Qudos Bank Arena on February 09, 2025 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
If you're looking for an outcome for Lewis vs. Teixeira, I'd say lean toward the fight ending via knockout, and maybe even a first round knockout.
My expectation is that the veteran who has been in the Octagon against some of the heaviest hitters in the UFC's heavyweight division is going to be anxious to test the young man who only has 35 seconds of UFC fight time to his name.
We don't know much about Teixeira outside of the fact that he's bigger and younger than Lewis. And while this matchup won't answer every question we have about Teixeira, it should tell us if he is able to use his size and reach as well as take a punch from the UFC's all-time leader in knockouts.
The big concern is Teixeira's defense. He can get tagged and tagged clean. That is an enormous concern.
In an ideal world, Teixeira uses his length to use his kicks to hurt Lewis to the body and then finish him when Lewis is hurt.
The betting pick is Teixeira to win via knockout, but that is not a very confident pick because of his limited UFC fight time and the fact that this is a UFC heavyweight scrap.
UFC Nashville Fight Card Co-Main Event: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions - Stephen Thompson Vs. Gabriel Bonfim
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - JULY 11: (L-R) Opponents Stephen Thompson and Gabriel Bonfim of Brazil face ... More off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in on July 11, 2025 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
In the co-main event of the UFC Nashville card, Stephen Thompson faces Gabriel Bonfim. Thompson has been with the UFC since early 2012. He is the No. 12 fighter in the UFC's welterweight division. Bonfim joined the UFC in 2023. He is currently unranked.
The opening odds for the UFC Nashville co-main event saw Bonfim open as a massive -400 favorite over the +310 Thompson. Those odds have shifted slightly. Today, Bonfim is a -425 favorite, while Thompson is a +310 betting underdog.
Thompson has 66 percent of the bets, while Bonfim has 74 percent of the handle.
The betting pick is Bonfim to win via decision.
UFC Nashville Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions - Calvin Kattar Vs. Steve Garcia
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - JULY 11: (L-R) Opponents Calvin Kattar and Steve Garcia face off during the ... More UFC Fight Night weigh-in on July 11, 2025 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
When the betting odds were first published for the Calvin Kattar vs. Steve Garcia featherweight clash, Garcia was listed as a -140 betting favorite over the +115 Kattar. The odds have tightened a bit, but Garcia remains the favorite at -125 over Kattar, who is a +105 betting underdog.
Sixty-one percent of the bets have come in on Kattar, while 69 percent of the money has been on Garcia.
The pick is for Garcia to beat Kattar via decision.
UFC Nashville Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions - Nate Landwehr Vs. Morgan Charriere
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - JULY 11: (L-R) Opponents Nate Landwehr and Morgan Charriere of France face ... More off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in on July 11, 2025 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
The opening odds for the Nate Landwehr vs. Morgan Charriere matchup found Charriere as the -225 favorite over the +185 Landwehr. Charriere remains the favorite at -275, while Landwehr comes in as the +225 underdog.
Bettors are going with Landwehr. He has picked up 88 percent of the bets and 95 percent of the handle.
The betting pick is Charriere to win via decision.
UFC Nashville Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions - Vitor Petrino Vs. Austen Lane
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - JULY 11: (L-R) Opponents Vitor Petrino of Brazil and Austen Lane face off ... More during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in on July 11, 2025 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
The first of two heavyweight bouts on the UFC Nashville main card finds Vitor Petrino facing Austen Lane. Petrino opened as a whopping -650 favorite over the +475 Lane. Today, Petrino is a bigger favorite at -700, while Lane comes in as the +500 betting underdog.
It's no surprise to see the bettors going with the underdog in this one because of the lopsided odds. Lane has 90 percent of the bets and 85 percent of the handle.
Petrino is likely to win via knockout, but the odds might not make it worth placing a wager on Petrino in this matchup.
UFC Nashville Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions - Junior Tafa Vs. Tuco Tokkos
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - JULY 11: (L-R) Opponents Junior Tafa of Australia and Tuco Tokkos of England ... More face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in on July 11, 2025 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Opening the UFC Nashville main card is a light heavyweight matchup between Junior Tafa and Tuco Tokkos. Tafa opened as a -160 favorite over the +135 Tokkos. Today, Tafa is -185 to Tokkos's +150.
Tafa has 54 percent of the bets and 86 percent of the handle.
The pick is Tafa to win via knockout.
*Odds via BetMGM
UFC Nashville Fight Card Prop Bets To Consider
Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira does not go the distance: -900
Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira does not start Round 2: +110
Tallison Teixeira to knock out Derrick Lewis in Round 1: +135
Derrick Lewis to knock out Tallison Teixeira in Round 1: +600
Gabriel Bonfim lands more than 2.5 takedowns on Stephen Thompson: -115
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Stephen Thompson does not go the distance: -160
Steve Garcia to beat Calvin Kattar by KO/TKO: +200
Nate Landwehr Vs. Morgan Charriere either fighter by KO/TKO: +125
Vitor Petrino Vs. Austen Lane either fighter by KO/TKO: -365
Junior Tafa vs. Tuco Tokkos either fighter by KO/TKO: -250
*Odds via BetOnline
UFC Nashville Fight Card: Date
Saturday, July 12, 2025
UFC Nashville Fight Card: Location
Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee
UFC Nashville Fight Card: How to Watch Or Stream
Main Card: ESPN
Preliminary Card: ESPN
UFC Nashville Fight Card: Fight Card Time
Prelims: 6:00 p.m. ET
Main Card: 9:00 p.m. ET
UFC Nashville Main Card
Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira - Heavyweight
Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim - Welterweight
Calvin Kattar vs. Steve Garcia - Featherweight
Nate Landwehr vs. Morgan Charriere - Featherweight
Vitor Petrino vs. Austen Lane - Heavyweight
Junior Tafa vs. Tuco Tokkos - Light Heavyweight
UFC Nashville Preliminary Card
Max Griffin vs. Chris Curtis - Welterweight
Jake Matthews vs. Chidi Njokuani - Welterweight
Lauren Murphy vs. Eduarda Moura - Women's Flyweight
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Valter Walker - Heavyweight
Mitch Ramirez vs. Mike Davis - Lightweight
Fatima Kline vs. Melissa Martinez - Strawweight
We will have more on the UFC Nashville fight card, inclduing full fight card results, reactions and highlights on fight night.
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