Martinelli's Escape Is Testing Panama's Government—and Its Democracy

Yahoo

27-05-2025

In early May, former Panamanian President Ricardo Martinelli quietly boarded a flight from Panama City to Bogota. The move ended Martinelli's 15-month stay at the Nicaraguan Embassy in Panama, where he had taken refuge to avoid serving a 10-year prison sentence for money laundering. His departure, which was sanctioned by a discreet safe-conduct granted by Panama's Foreign Ministry and transformed into territorial asylum upon his arrival in Colombia, marks more than the exit of a fugitive politician. It underscores the fragility of democratic institutions in Panama and the tactical resilience of its political elite.
The entire episode, with its opaque legal maneuvers and strategic calculations, reveals a convergence of judicial evasion, partisan brinkmanship and international complicity. It forces a reckoning with how Panama's institutions function under pressure—and for whom.
Martinelli's predicament stems from his conviction in 2023 in the 'New Business' case, a high-profile corruption scandal involving public funds funneled into the purchase of a media conglomerate. Martinelli initially counted on a return to the presidency and the immunity it would provide as a way out of his legal troubles, and in June 2023 he announced his candidacy for the country's presidential election, scheduled for May 2024.
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But in February 2024, after a court ordered his pre-trial detention while his appeal was decided, Martinelli sought asylum at the Nicaraguan Embassy. When his final appeal failed later that same month, resulting in him being barred from running for office, Martinelli pivoted to a new strategy, remaining in the embassy while working toward leaving Panama for political asylum abroad.
Initially, the administration of President Jose Raul Mulino granted Martinelli safe-conduct to travel to Nicaragua in March 2025, but that plan collapsed amid reports of an unresolved Interpol red notice for Martinelli's arrest and Nicaragua's sudden withdrawal of landing clearance. A second safe-conduct was quietly issued in May, and only after Martinelli's arrival in Colombia was the operation made public, raising public debate about transparency and elite influence.
Martinelli's maneuver was far from a retreat—it was a recalibration. Even from his refuge in the Nicaraguan Embassy, where his movements and associations were restricted under the rules of diplomatic asylum, he continued to exert political influence through social media and orchestrated visits, directing his Realizing Goals, or RM, party and pushing legislation tailored to secure his legal reprieve. Chief among these efforts was a controversial amnesty bill that would nullify his conviction along with those of other political allies. The bill has stalled in the National Assembly, but its mere proposal exposes the depths of Panama's institutional vulnerabilities and the lengths to which Martinelli's faction is willing to go to secure his political future.
Complicating matters is the increasingly tense relationship between Martinelli and Mulino, who was initially Martinelli's vice presidential running mate in last year's election but became his handpicked successor when Martinelli was barred from the race. While Martinelli's support was instrumental in Mulino's electoral victory, fissures have emerged since then. Martinelli loyalists have accused Mulino of betrayal, and the legislative alliance between RM and Mulino's broader coalition is fraying.
Amid the tensions, the amnesty debate has become a litmus test. Backing it signals loyalty to Martinelli. Opposing it signals a commitment to legal accountability and institutional integrity, but comes at a political cost. Disavowing the bill distances Mulino from Martinelli's legacy, allowing him to assert his independence, but it also risks alienating RM's legislative bloc and inviting retaliation from Martinelli's still-powerful network.
Beyond its domestic repercussions, the circumstances surrounding Martinelli's departure have taken a toll on Panama's global standing. Observers across the region view the episode as emblematic of elite impunity. While legal under the 1954 Caracas Convention, Martinelli's transition from diplomatic to territorial asylum reads to many as a procedural workaround to avoid accountability.
Territorial asylum means protection granted by a country when the individual is physically on its soil, allowing greater freedom than diplomatic asylum inside an embassy. In Colombia, Martinelli gained rights such as freedom of association, and his designation as a 'politically persecuted' individual blocks extradition efforts for now.
Unsurprisingly, Colombia's role in his flight has raised eyebrows. By accepting a convicted ex-president on grounds of political persecution—a claim widely disputed by legal analysts—President Gustavo Petro's government broke with precedent and triggered criticism at home and abroad. Colombian journalist Daniel Coronell summed up the sentiment succinctly, declaring that '[t]he only winner is Martinelli.'
The optics since Martinelli's arrival in Colombia have only worsened the backlash. Having previously claimed serious health issues, Martinelli appeared smiling in Bogota and even posed with Panama's ambassador, who was later reprimanded by the Mulino administration. The performative nature of Martinelli's public appearances not only contradicted his asylum narrative but also undermined the seriousness of his legal case. Rather than a fugitive in hiding, Martinelli projected the image of a seasoned operator playing the system.
Martinelli's ambitions remain unchanged: a return to the presidency, but in 2029 rather than 2024. Achieving that goal hinges on either overturning his conviction or rendering it irrelevant through legislation like the amnesty bill. His continued control over RM—the second-largest party in the National Assembly—gives him considerable influence within the legislature, and by all indications he has every intention of using it.
Despite his legal troubles, Martinelli remains very popular in Panama. Before he was forced to withdraw from the race, he was favored to win the 2024 presidential election. While sheltered in the Nicaraguan Embassy, he used social media prolifically and strategically, sharing political commentary alongside casual, relatable content like videos of barbecues and selfies with his dog. That kept him visible and engaged with supporters, fueling his influence even in exile.
All of this sets the stage for a high-stakes political struggle in the years ahead. Should the amnesty effort succeed, Panama risks institutional backsliding and a further erosion of public trust. If it fails, Martinelli could leverage his exile as a rallying cry, positioning himself as a persecuted leader poised for a comeback. Either way, Mulino must continue to manage complex relationships among Panama's political elites, including with his predecessor.
Martinelli's escape to Colombia marks not the end of his political story, but the beginning of a new chapter—one where exile is used as part of a calculated political strategy. Whether he will continue to shape Panama's political landscape through 2029 remains uncertain, largely dependent on the fragile dynamics within the National Assembly and the country's resilience in this test of its democratic institutions.
The broader regional implications are, of course, sobering. The use of political asylum to protect convicted elites could further weaken judicial independence across Latin America, where corruption and impunity already test the resilience of democratic systems.
Cristina Guevara is a Latin America policy analyst and writer. She previously served as a policy and legislative adviser in Panama's National Assembly. In addition to World Politics Review, she has written for Foreign Policy, The Miami Herald, Rolling Stone, Americas Quarterly and The Dallas Morning News, among other outlets. A Chevening scholar, she is currently pursuing her second master's degree focused on inequality and governance in Latin America at University College London.
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