G20 faces a generational test amid geopolitical challenges
Image: DIRCO
Alvin Botes
Since December 1 last year until the Leaders' Summit in November 2025, South Africa chairs the world's most influential economic forum, that is the G20, under the theme: 'Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability'. The theme signals our determination to put people — not profits — at the centre of global decision-making.
Our high-level priorities are clear and interlinked. Firstly, inclusive economic growth, industrialisation, employment and the reduction of inequality. Secondly, food security in an era of climate disruption. Thirdly, harnessing artificial intelligence and broader technological innovation for sustainable development.
Complementing these three priorities is our drive for disaster-risk resilience and fair debt-relief architecture so that climate-vulnerable and heavily indebted countries are not forced to choose between servicing loans and saving lives.
The stakes could not be higher. The International Labour Organisation (ILO) reports that global unemployment is hovering near a historic low of five per cent, yet globally the average for young people remains stubbornly high — about 13 per cent worldwide, and more than double that in many developing economies.
Here at home, 4.8 million South Africans aged 15–34 are unemployed; 58 per cent of them have never had a single day of paid work, and our youth unemployment rate climbed to 46.1 per cent in the first quarter of this year.
Beyond the headline numbers lurk deeper structural hazards: one in five young Africans is classified as NEET—'not in employment, education or training'—and those already in work face a future in which artificial intelligence-driven automation could render up to 40 per cent of entry-level jobs obsolete by 2035, according to the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report.
Compounding that uncertainty are intersecting crises of mental-health fragility, climate anxiety, escalating conflict-driven displacement, and the rising cost of living that now consumes, on average, 38 per cent of a young person's monthly income across the G20.
Add to that what the economist Adam Tooze calls a global 'poly-crisis' which includes, amongst others, geopolitical polarisation, climate-related disasters, food-price shocks and widening digital divides. And it becomes clear why the South African presidency has framed 2025 as a make-or-break moment for multilateral cooperation.
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Geopolitically, the world is also experiencing what some economists such as Mark Blyth, Mohamed El-Erian and Michael Spence call a 'perma-crisis': the United States and China are locked in an uneasy dance of de-risking, Russia-Ukraine war continues to reshape energy and grain markets, and simmering conflicts from the Red Sea to the Sahel threaten already fragile supply chains. At the same time, global public debt has surpassed US $100 trillion, forcing developing nations to divert scarce resources away from youth programmes toward interest payments.
In the Employment Working Group of the Sherpa Track, we are negotiating a compact on youth employment and skills, building on the Antalya Goals (which were agreed to during Türkiye's presidency of the G20) but adding targets for digital-economy apprenticeships, recognition of micro-credentials and mutual portability of qualifications across G20 members. If endorsed by leaders, the compact will potentially translate into an estimated 10 million paid internship placements over five years, with a gender-parity clause and an annual public scorecard so you can hold the G20 accountable.
In the Finance Track, we are advancing an 'Innovation & Inclusion Facility' financed through blended public-private instruments to support start-ups led by women and young people in frontier technologies and green manufacturing. Its first-phase endowment of US $3 billion will be disbursed via challenge funds that prioritise township and rural enterprises, with a target of 150,000 sustainable jobs by 2027.
In the Agriculture Working Group and the Environment and Climate Sustainability Working Group, we are championing a Just Agri-Transition Facility that links smallholder farmers, including youth, to climate-smart finance and regional value chains. Beyond financing climate-resilient seed and drip-irrigation systems, the facility will underwrite a Pan-African farmers marketplace app that is targeted at youth and guarantees offtake agreements with regional supermarket chains.
Finally, our AI priority aims to deliver a 'Pan-G20 Youth Digital Corps,' a volunteer-to-employment pipeline that pairs South African coders with continental and global partners to solve public-sector data challenges.
The G20 was born out of the 1997 Asian financial meltdown and re-energised amid the 2008 crash. It now faces a generation-defining test: can it propel the global economy so that young people inherit not debts and droughts but opportunity and hope? South Africa believes it can—if the world finally listens to its largest demographic - the youth.
* Alvin Botes is Deputy Minister of International Relations and Cooperation.
** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL, Independent Media or The African.
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