Trafigura warns of volatility in 2025 as first-half profit inches up
LONDON :Commodities traders could struggle to capitalise on politically driven market volatility rather than supply and demand disruptions in 2025, trading house Trafigura said on Thursday, as it reported a slight rise in first-half net profit.
The unlisted Swiss-based trading house reported a 3 per cent rise in net profit to approximately $1.52 billion for the six months ending March 31, stabilising after a sharp drop in its 2024 full-year results, when the company discovered a $1.1 billion fraud in Mongolia.
Trafigura, alongside rivals Vitol and Gunvor, also reaped lower profits in 2024 as the post-pandemic recovery and commodity price shocks following Russia's invasion of Ukraine faded, ending a boom period for commodities in 2022-2023.
The first half of its 2025 financial year coincided with the beginning of U.S. President Trump's second term, whose trade and foreign policies have thrown global markets into turmoil.
While market volatility is often seen as an opportunity for traders, Trafigura struck a cautious tone about the nature of the volatility rocking markets in 2025.
"Increased volatility may not necessarily translate into physical trading opportunities, as current market movements are driven more by policy-focused decisions rather than traditional supply-demand disruptions, Trafigura Chief Financial Officer Stephan Jansma said, adding that he anticipated that turbulence would continue in the second half of the year.
"This is clearly a volatile environment and not one that supports strong commodity demand," the firm's chief economist, Saad Rahim, said.
The period also marked a leadership transition at Trafigura, with Richard Holtum taking over from Jeremy Weir on January 1.
Holtum said the firm serves as a "shock absorber for volatility and risks in global supply chains."
REVENUES DOWN ON OIL AND GAS
First-half revenues fell by 4 per cent to $119.2 billion, due to lower commodity prices, the firm said, with oil and gas volumes unchanged on the year at around 7.2 million barrels per day.
Trafigura traded 9.9 million metric tons of non-ferrous metals, down from 10.4 million in the same period last year, citing a focus on "profitable tonnages." Bulk minerals volumes fell to 43.4 million tons, compared to 54.7 million in the first half of 2024.
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