Trump's plan to hit Mexico's drug cartels will only make them more popular

Miami Herald

18 hours ago

President Trump's reported secret order to develop military options for a cross-border intervention against Mexico's drug cartels could backfire spectacularly. Instead of keeping drugs out of your neighborhood, it could actually make the cartels more popular at home and even more powerful.
Even some of Trump's toughest former advisers admit it — a solo U.S. invasion or drone attack without Mexico's green light would be a dumb idea. It would spark a wave of nationalism south of the border and likely push Mexico's government to ditch anti-narcotics and migration deals with Washington.
John Bolton, Trump's former national security adviser and hardly a dove, didn't mince words when I interviewed him recently. A U.S. attack on Mexico's cartels 'doesn't make any sense at all,' he told me.
Bolton told me there's no question Mexico's drug cartels are a problem and something needs to be done about them. But believing that the United States can fix things militarily, without Mexico onboard, is a fantasy. If anything, 'it will make things worse,' he told me.
Trump has reportedly sent a secret directive to the Pentagon asking for options to attack Latin American drug cartels that the U.S. has branded as terrorist organizations, The New York Times and NBC News reported on Aug. 8. U.S. officials said later that Trump is considering all options, although no decision has been made. U.S. officials say the president is just weighing his options for now but nothing's set in stone.
I wouldn't be shocked if all this talk about military action was a White House leak intended to nudge Mexico into okaying a military attack and spinning it publicly as a joint operation.
But if Trump decided to go it alone, here's why that could blow up in his face.
First, as Bolton told me, such a move could actually boost the cartels' popularity in Mexico.
Drug traffickers bankroll many people in rural communities, essentially buying local support and protection. Musicians belt out ballads— 'narco-corridos'—in their honor. A U.S. attack might just gain them even more support.
Second, a unilateral U.S. attack would trigger a nationalistic reaction across Mexico. President Claudia Sheinbaum would be under serious pressure to scrap key anti-drug and migration deals with the United States.
Sheinbaum has already stepped up fentanyl seizures and border checks in response to U.S. pressure in recent months. But she has drawn a hard line: unilateral U.S. military action is 'absolutely ruled out,' she said.
Third, and maybe the biggest issue, a U.S. military strike on a Mexican drug lab would do little to slow down the drug trade. As long as the U.S. remains a giant, illegal-drug-consuming country, the flow of illicit narcotics will continue.
Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera, a director of George Mason University's Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center, told me Trump is following a mistaken diagnosis. Fixating just on foreign cartels ignores the bigger picture.
Without tackling both supply and demand — meaning more drug prevention at home — the problem will stick around, she said.
Even if you kill some cartel bosses, drug trafficking rings will split into more cells and continue operating. They are networks that adapt and survive. 'The cartels aren't vertical structures anymore, like in the days of [Colombia's drug baron] Pablo Escobar,' she told me.
Odds are, Trump's secret order to the Pentagon was just him asking for every possible option. But I wouldn't be surprised if, down the road, he decides to order a strike against Mexico.
Trump is a master of distraction. One of his trademarks is being very good at shifting the spotlight. If the U.S. economy sours because of his tariffs, or if the political scandal over late financier Jeffrey Epstein's files grows, Trump could be tempted to launch a military attack. It would certainly make huge headlines.
Many in his nationalist, anti-immigrant base would cheer him on, even if the end result is stronger cartels and less safety here at home.
Don't miss the 'Oppenheimer Presenta' TV show on Sundays at 9 pm E.T. on CNN en Español. Blog: andresoppenheimer.com