Why Gen Z and millennial voters could deliver unexpected election results

Australia Broadcast Center

01-05-2025

They're disillusioned, resentful and many suspect the system is rigged against them.
For the first time, Gen Z and millennial voters outnumber baby boomers at the federal election — and most of them aren't reaching the same milestones as their parents.
More than 7 million Australians
Political analysts say their grievances could deliver unexpected results in marginal seats.
A widening wealth gap
Paul Strangio, emeritus professor in politics at Monash University, said generational inequality could be driving "unpredictable" voting patterns among Gen Zs and millennials.
"They're not reaching the sort of milestones that previous generations did, such as home ownership, marrying [and] having children," Dr Strangio said.
"Those things used to predispose people to becoming more conservative in their outlook."
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A woman holds a black dog overlooking the beach.
To understand why 30-somethings feel like they're struggling financially, the ABC analysed five factors — housing, healthcare, debt, tax, and income.
UNSW economics professor Richard Holden said while many young voters earn higher incomes today than their parents did at their age, it was now much harder to build wealth through property ownership.
"I'm not sure there's rising intergenerational income inequality, but there's a good case to worry about wealth inequality," he said.
"And I'd say that aspect is getting worse."
Many young Australians say they can't compete with older buyers at auctions.
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ABC News: Michael Coggan
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Tim Harcourt, an economist at the University of Technology Sydney, agreed the wealth disparity between generations was becoming increasingly acute.
"It's really starting to bite now as the Baby Boomers retire into their defined benefits superannuation schemes and extra properties," he said.
"I think housing is a red button issue … and that's where the youth reaction will be really important."
Young voters 'a ticking time bomb'
Dr Strangio said voters typically became more conservative as they grew older, but now they're skewing further to the left and feeling increasingly dissatisfied with the major parties.
"Young voters are a ticking time bomb," he said.
"They're facing real wage declines, high costs for education, difficulty in getting into the housing market and yet so far I think they've been quiet tolerant."
Photo shows
A smiling, dark-haired young woman in flared jeans stands in bare feet on a house veranda.
Young people in some of Australia's most expensive regional towns are disappointed with both major parties, as experts warn their policies are likely to push house prices up even further.
But he warned their patience wouldn't last forever.
"When we look overseas to places like Trump's America, young men are being attracted to aggressive, populist policies because of inequalities," he said.
"I think it's a warning that we do need to address those things with some urgency because we don't want to see those sorts of trends."
Professor Harcourt said while the youth vote typically skewed to the left in inner-city electorates, voting patterns would be harder to predict among tradies or factory workers in rural areas.
"It's quite unpredictable in the outer suburbs where there's housing stress and population stress, where there is a view that the infrastructure is not keeping up with the population growth," he said.
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Climate change remains a concern
Aside from housing affordability and the cost of living, a new YouGov poll suggests young voters remain deeply concerned about the impacts of climate change.
Earlier this year, Australians' social media accounts lit up with videos of
A kayaker navigating floodwaters in Lockyer Valley in south-east Queensland.
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Supplied: Michelle Badke
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According to the YouGov poll, four-in-five young voters said climate change would influence their vote in the federal election.
The poll of 1,622 adult Australian voters, commissioned by Solutions for Climate Australia, found 79 per cent of Gen Zs and 73 per cent of millennials said climate change was an important part of their decision-making at the polling booth.
About 67 per cent of undecided voters also said climate change was important in determining their vote.
Australian Youth Climate Coalition national director Grace Vegesana said the issue wasn't going away.
Grace Vegesana says young people will continue to prioritise climate action.
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Supplied: Grace Vegesana
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"I think the parties who ignore young people will pay the price at the ballot box,"
she said.
"Young people under 40 do deeply care about the climate crisis and if they're not seeing solutions … they will vote accordingly."
She said many young voters reported feeling left behind this election.
"We are going to see a shift away from the major parties as people realise [we] want to see ambition, and not just be handed baseline policies that continue business as usual," she said.
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