Liberal Party now favoured to win Kooyong and Goldstein and postal votes drive collapse in Teal MPs' margins
The Liberal Party are now favoured to win two Teal-held seats thanks to the number of postal votes swinging against the Climate 200-backed independents.
Kooyong MP Monique Ryan had a lead of more than 1800 votes on Monday morning, but this has fallen to just 1,001 votes.
About 7,000 postal votes are yet to be counted, with these ballots currently flowing in favour of Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer on a margin of 62.1 to 37.9 per cent.
Ms Ryan confidently declared victory in the formerly blue ribbon seat on Saturday night, appearing before cheering supporters with a sign stating 'Kooyong, we did it'.
But the Teal MP has since walked back her claim on Monday, while Ms Hamer has confidently told supporters the Liberals 'can win this seat'.
Sky News Chief election analyst Tom Connell said on Tuesday that Ms Hamer was now 'slight favourite' to win the seat, although it was still too close to call.
According to the AEC, there are 7,214 postal votes still to be processed.
'Amelia Hamer, she'll hit the lead in this seat. Then it comes down to some of the other votes that we haven't counted yet… We don't have any absents in yet. We don't have any provisional or declaration pre-polls,' Connell said.
'If (Ms Hamer) can get that lead up to 1,000 or so, which on these current votes would happen, she's going to be hard to run down.
'But these postal rates can slow down. You can have different batches depending on the day people voted, so it's not a sure thing.'
Goldstein Teal MP Zoe Daniel also celebrated too early on election night, with the Sky News election analyst declaring Liberal candidate and former MP Tim Wilson was now a 'clear favourite' to win the seat.
Ms Daniel currently leads on razor thin margin of just 95 votes, with the Liberals currently recording a massive postal vote margin of almost 65 to 35 per cent.
'That's tracking really well at the moment for Tim Wilson,' Connell said.
'Let's just see if that (postal) vote holds up that strongly. See what his lead is. If it's in the order of 2,000 or 3000, Zoe Daniel, can't make that up.'
In an Instagram post on Sunday Mr Wilson said while he was 'battle weary' and 'tired' he remained 'incredibly optimistic' about his chances of winning the seat.
'In Goldstein, the largest booth is postal votes. There were 27,000 postal vote applications, and we're watching them roll in,' he said.
'Every single batch of votes counted, it continues to collapse.'
The former Liberal MP, who was turfed from office in the Teal wave of 2022, said while there was a statewide swing of two per cent against the Coalition, there had been a swing of nearly four per cent towards the Liberal Party in Goldstein.
'We have bucked the trend by nearly six per cent, and that has come down to all of the people who have been part of this campaign,' he said.
'This was a real grassroots, real community campaign that spoke to hope, the aspirations and the opportunity of what the values of this community can live out and dream and build for the future of this country.
'And that's why I'm so proud of it, whatever the result is, I'm proud of everything you guys did, and I'm so proud to have stood by you in this campaign.
'For all of the people who voted Liberal in Goldstein on Saturday and the days leading up to it, I just want to say a massive, big thank you. To those that didn't, of course we respect your decision, but we seek to always earn your trust.'
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ABC News
37 minutes ago
- ABC News
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The Advertiser
43 minutes ago
- The Advertiser
Embattled premier's request for early election granted
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Labor, whose no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff was backed by the Greens and three crossbench independents, had called on the premier to step down. "We've gotten to this point because of Jeremy Rockliff and his refusal to resign," Labor MP Shane Broad said. "I come from a farm and no matter how much you love that old sheep dog, if you can't round up sheep anymore it's time to get a new one." Mr Rockliff claimed the no-confidence motion was a deceptive power grab, while Labor says it was because of the Liberals' poor budget and project mismanagement. The premier took a crack at Mr Winter for failing to "front up" and hold a press conference on Wednesday. The Liberals had already appeared to be in fully fledged campaign mode, visiting a hospital to announce a four-year elective surgery plan. They were returned to power in March 2024, winning 14 seats and cobbling together enough support from the crossbench to govern. Tasmanians will go to the polls on July 19 after the embattled Liberal premier's request for an early election was granted. Jeremy Rockliff returned to Government House on Wednesday evening to meet with Governor Barbara Baker, six days after he lost the confidence of the parliament. In a statement after the meeting, Ms Baker confirmed she would dissolve parliament and issue the writ for an election to be held on July 19. It will be the fourth state election in seven years after early polls were also held in 2021 and 2024. "Notwithstanding the recent 2024 election, the public interest in avoiding the cost of another election and the prevailing public mood against holding an election, I have granted Premier Rockliff a dissolution," Ms Baker said in the statement. "I make this grant because I am satisfied that there is no real possibility that an alternative government can be formed." Mr Rockliff has resisted pressure to resign and insisted the backing of his partyroom remains solid, despite reports former senator Eric Abetz and ex-deputy premier Michael Ferguson were willing to be leader. "I have a commitment from my team to support me as leader and I am not going anywhere," he said earlier on Wednesday. Mr Rockliff denied he was "driven by ego" in not standing aside from leading the minority government. Liberal MP Jacquie Petrusma didn't directly answer when asked if the party was doing numbers to roll Mr Rockliff. "The premier is a fantastic leader and he has 100 per cent support of the PLP (parliamentary Liberal Party)," she said. Ms Baker also met Labor leader Dean Winter on Wednesday afternoon. Labor, which has just 10 of 35 lower-house seats, had said it would not look to form a minority government with the Greens. "In that meeting (with the governor) I reiterated my position that Labor will not be doing a deal with the Greens," Mr Winter said. Labor, whose no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff was backed by the Greens and three crossbench independents, had called on the premier to step down. "We've gotten to this point because of Jeremy Rockliff and his refusal to resign," Labor MP Shane Broad said. "I come from a farm and no matter how much you love that old sheep dog, if you can't round up sheep anymore it's time to get a new one." Mr Rockliff claimed the no-confidence motion was a deceptive power grab, while Labor says it was because of the Liberals' poor budget and project mismanagement. The premier took a crack at Mr Winter for failing to "front up" and hold a press conference on Wednesday. The Liberals had already appeared to be in fully fledged campaign mode, visiting a hospital to announce a four-year elective surgery plan. They were returned to power in March 2024, winning 14 seats and cobbling together enough support from the crossbench to govern. Tasmanians will go to the polls on July 19 after the embattled Liberal premier's request for an early election was granted. Jeremy Rockliff returned to Government House on Wednesday evening to meet with Governor Barbara Baker, six days after he lost the confidence of the parliament. In a statement after the meeting, Ms Baker confirmed she would dissolve parliament and issue the writ for an election to be held on July 19. It will be the fourth state election in seven years after early polls were also held in 2021 and 2024. "Notwithstanding the recent 2024 election, the public interest in avoiding the cost of another election and the prevailing public mood against holding an election, I have granted Premier Rockliff a dissolution," Ms Baker said in the statement. "I make this grant because I am satisfied that there is no real possibility that an alternative government can be formed." Mr Rockliff has resisted pressure to resign and insisted the backing of his partyroom remains solid, despite reports former senator Eric Abetz and ex-deputy premier Michael Ferguson were willing to be leader. "I have a commitment from my team to support me as leader and I am not going anywhere," he said earlier on Wednesday. Mr Rockliff denied he was "driven by ego" in not standing aside from leading the minority government. Liberal MP Jacquie Petrusma didn't directly answer when asked if the party was doing numbers to roll Mr Rockliff. "The premier is a fantastic leader and he has 100 per cent support of the PLP (parliamentary Liberal Party)," she said. Ms Baker also met Labor leader Dean Winter on Wednesday afternoon. Labor, which has just 10 of 35 lower-house seats, had said it would not look to form a minority government with the Greens. "In that meeting (with the governor) I reiterated my position that Labor will not be doing a deal with the Greens," Mr Winter said. Labor, whose no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff was backed by the Greens and three crossbench independents, had called on the premier to step down. "We've gotten to this point because of Jeremy Rockliff and his refusal to resign," Labor MP Shane Broad said. "I come from a farm and no matter how much you love that old sheep dog, if you can't round up sheep anymore it's time to get a new one." Mr Rockliff claimed the no-confidence motion was a deceptive power grab, while Labor says it was because of the Liberals' poor budget and project mismanagement. The premier took a crack at Mr Winter for failing to "front up" and hold a press conference on Wednesday. The Liberals had already appeared to be in fully fledged campaign mode, visiting a hospital to announce a four-year elective surgery plan. They were returned to power in March 2024, winning 14 seats and cobbling together enough support from the crossbench to govern. Tasmanians will go to the polls on July 19 after the embattled Liberal premier's request for an early election was granted. Jeremy Rockliff returned to Government House on Wednesday evening to meet with Governor Barbara Baker, six days after he lost the confidence of the parliament. In a statement after the meeting, Ms Baker confirmed she would dissolve parliament and issue the writ for an election to be held on July 19. It will be the fourth state election in seven years after early polls were also held in 2021 and 2024. "Notwithstanding the recent 2024 election, the public interest in avoiding the cost of another election and the prevailing public mood against holding an election, I have granted Premier Rockliff a dissolution," Ms Baker said in the statement. "I make this grant because I am satisfied that there is no real possibility that an alternative government can be formed." Mr Rockliff has resisted pressure to resign and insisted the backing of his partyroom remains solid, despite reports former senator Eric Abetz and ex-deputy premier Michael Ferguson were willing to be leader. "I have a commitment from my team to support me as leader and I am not going anywhere," he said earlier on Wednesday. Mr Rockliff denied he was "driven by ego" in not standing aside from leading the minority government. Liberal MP Jacquie Petrusma didn't directly answer when asked if the party was doing numbers to roll Mr Rockliff. "The premier is a fantastic leader and he has 100 per cent support of the PLP (parliamentary Liberal Party)," she said. Ms Baker also met Labor leader Dean Winter on Wednesday afternoon. Labor, which has just 10 of 35 lower-house seats, had said it would not look to form a minority government with the Greens. "In that meeting (with the governor) I reiterated my position that Labor will not be doing a deal with the Greens," Mr Winter said. Labor, whose no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff was backed by the Greens and three crossbench independents, had called on the premier to step down. "We've gotten to this point because of Jeremy Rockliff and his refusal to resign," Labor MP Shane Broad said. "I come from a farm and no matter how much you love that old sheep dog, if you can't round up sheep anymore it's time to get a new one." Mr Rockliff claimed the no-confidence motion was a deceptive power grab, while Labor says it was because of the Liberals' poor budget and project mismanagement. The premier took a crack at Mr Winter for failing to "front up" and hold a press conference on Wednesday. The Liberals had already appeared to be in fully fledged campaign mode, visiting a hospital to announce a four-year elective surgery plan. They were returned to power in March 2024, winning 14 seats and cobbling together enough support from the crossbench to govern.
Perth Now
an hour ago
- Perth Now
Snap election called after week of chaos
Tasmanians will face a snap election on July 19 after days of confusion following a no-confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff succeeded. Governor Barbara Baker granted approval for the election a day after Mr Rockliff made the request in order to end the state's political deadlock. She said she was 'satisfied that there is no real possibility that an alternative government can be formed'. In a statement, released on Wednesday night, the Governor said she would dissolve Parliament and issue the writ for an election on July 19. 'Notwithstanding the recent 2024 election, the public interest in avoiding the cost of another election and the prevailing public mood against holding an election, I have granted Premier Rockliff a dissolution,' Governor Baker said. Mr Rockliff had refused to resign as losing the no-confidence motion 17-18 in order for another Liberal MP to take over as Premier, saying he would seek a snap election to decide the future of the government. Ms Baker on Tuesday said she would take 'the time necessary to give due consideration to all available options'. She met with Labor Opposition Leader Dean Winter on Wednesday, before Mr Rockliff returned for a second meeting just after 6pm. Premier Jeremy Rockliff has called a snap election after losing a no-confidence motion in the lower house of state parliament last week. Nikki Davis-Jones Credit: News Corp Australia Mr Winter last week moved the motion against Mr Rockliff over the minority Liberal government's handling of the state's troubled economy, following the handing down of the state budget on May 29. The budget forecast net debt was expected to approach $11bn by the end of the decade. Labor also took aim at the bungled handling of the rollout of the new Spirit of Tasmania vessels. Mr Rockliff lost last Thursday's no-confidence motion 17-18 in the lower house of parliament, making his position untenable, with key independents refusing to back his minority government. He held onto the leadership, while Labor's Mr Winter ruled out forming a minority government with the Greens. Mr Rockliff had delayed visiting Government House until Tuesday to ensure parliament passed emergency legislation to ensure public servants would be paid during and after an election. More to come
