Should You Buy The Dip In Upstart Stock?
CANADA - 2025/02/06: In this photo illustration, the Upstart Holdings logo is seen displayed on a ... More smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
Upstart (NASDAQ: UPST), a cloud-based artificial intelligence lending platform in the U.S., recently announced its Q1 results, which significantly exceeded market expectations. The company reported revenue of $213 million and earnings of $0.30 per share, surpassing the consensus estimates of $201 million and $0.17, respectively. However, its forward guidance fell below expectations. Despite the strong quarterly results, UPST stock plunged 15% in after market hours. Separately, see How Will D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Since the start of the year, UPST stock has seen a decline of 15% (as of May 6), underperforming the S&P 500 index, which is down 4% over the same period. The company's stock price has been weighed down by tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and its impact on the overall economic growth, consumer spending as well as interest rates. Upstart has established new partnerships lately to fund consumer loans, which should bode well for its business. But, if you are looking for an alternative with steadier growth than an individual stock, you might consider the High-Quality Portfolio, which has delivered over 91% returns since inception and has outperformed the S&P 500.
Upstart's revenue for Q1 reached $213 million, reflecting a 67% year-over-year increase, driven by strong loan origination growth. The company facilitated the sale of 240,706 loans totaling $2.1 billion, marking a 102% increase from the previous year's quarter. The loan conversion rate also improved significantly, rising to 19.1% from 14% in the prior-year quarter.
Upstart's adjusted EBITDA margin surged to 2% in Q1 2025, a significant 400 bps improvement from 16% in the same quarter of the previous year. The combination of higher revenue and improved margins helped the company achieve earnings of $0.30 per share, compared to a loss of $0.31 per share in Q1 2024. Looking ahead, Upstart projects Q2 revenue of approximately $225 million and adjusted earnings of $25 million, with full-year 2025 revenue expected to reach $1.01 billion.
UPST stock has shown significant volatility, and its annual returns over the past few years have been notably inconsistent when compared to the broader S&P 500 index. Specifically, the stock delivered an exceptional return of 271% in 2021, followed by a steep decline of 91% in 2022. It then experienced a substantial rebound with a 209% gain in 2023 and is currently up 51% year-to-date in 2024.
In comparison, the Trefis High-Quality Portfolio, which consists of 30 stocks, has demonstrated significantly lower volatility. It has also outperformed the S&P 500 over the last four years. Why? The portfolio consists of stocks that offer higher returns with lower risk, making for a less volatile investment, as evident in the HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Given the current uncertain macroeconomic environment, including tariff and trade wars, it remains to be seen whether UPST will outperform the S&P 500 over the next year or face challenges similar to those in 2022.
At its current price of $43 (after-market), UPST trades at 5.4x trailing revenue, much below its four-year average of 8.4x. We believe the market's negative reaction to the Q2 guidance miss is unwarranted, and that UPST stock is now trading at attractive valuation levels. Consequently, we see the current price dip as a potential opportunity for investors seeking substantial long-term gains.
While UPST stock may see higher levels, it's worth comparing Upstart's peers on key performance metrics. You can find more comparative data for various industries at Peer Comparisons.
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