Geopolitical tensions, abrupt airspace closures keep Malaysian and global airlines on high alert

The Star

25-06-2025

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's aviation sector is on high alert, prioritising safety to avoid a repeat of the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 more than a decade ago. The heightened caution follows a wave of airspace closures by Arab states after Iran launched a missile strike on a United States (US) base in Qatar.
Qatar, one of the region's busiest aviation hubs, temporarily closed its airspace on Monday evening in response to the attack, as geopolitical tensions intensified amid the military conflict involving Iran, the US and Israel.
Universiti Kuala Lumpur Malaysian Institute of Aviation Technology economist (aviation and aerospace), Associate Professor Mohd Harridon Mohamed Suffian, said the attacks and ongoing tension in the region posed a significant risk to national carriers and other local aviation operators.
Endau Analytics founder and aviation analyst Shukor Yusof also warned that Southeast Asian airlines are highly vulnerable, as they rely on Middle Eastern airspace for Europe-bound flights.
Mohd Harridon said Southeast Asian carriers may be forced to reroute westward flights.
Understandably, the development has raised concerns among regional carriers, including Malaysia Airlines and AirAsia X , as the conflict could significantly affect flight operations and safety.
AirAsia X focuses on destinations within Asia and Australia, but its seasonal flights from Kuala Lumpur to Jeddah and Medina typically pass through the Southern Gulf region
Dubbed the gateway to the world, Qatar Airport reportedly serves over 360,000 flights and 30 million passengers every year.
"The risk could extend into other realms, such as economic downturn, a decline in financial stature, and a slowdown in trade and commerce," Mohd Harridon told Bernama in response to the Middle East conflict, especially following Iran's missile strike on a US base in Qatar.
Other Arab states have followed suit in closing their airspace. Bahrain confirmed a suspension of air navigation due to escalating regional volatility, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iraq and Oman have implemented similar measures.
Local Airlines Prioritise Passengers' Safety
Malaysia Airlines has reaffirmed its commitment to safety, stating that all flights are subject to ongoing risk assessments in light of regional tensions affecting parts of Middle Eastern airspace.
"We remain guided by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and other global aviation authorities to ensure the safety of airspace used in operations.
"All flight routes are evaluated using real-time intelligence, global security reports, notices to airmen (NOTAMs), and continuous surveillance via the airline's SATCOM-enabled flight monitoring system,' Malaysia Airlines said.
The national carrier added that it remains vigilant and will implement necessary operational changes-including rerouting or suspensions-if required, as the safety of passengers and crew remains its utmost priority.
Similarly, AirAsia X confirmed it is closely monitoring developments and will adhere to all necessary safety procedures.
Transport Minister Anthony Loke confirmed that several Malaysian flights to the Middle East have been cancelled following the missile strike on the US military base in Qatar yesterday.
Operational Costs Expected to Rise from Rerouting
Mohd Harridon said the affected region is a key corridor for flight traffic.
"Any diversions would entail an increase in operational costs due to higher fuel consumption during flights.'
He said the additional distance covered during flights would also be a point of contention, as this would increase flight duration and require rescheduling of timetables.
"There is a possibility that the conflicted area, especially coastal regions, could become constricted in terms of movements and overflight access. This would create a domino effect, with notable ripple impacts.
"The restriction of trade, particularly fuel, would increase financial pressure on the logistical supply chain and affect other areas around the Middle East that are prone to closure due to the expansion of offensive attacks. This would further erode the economic vibrancy of the aviation industry,' he said.
Geopolitical Volatility Reshaping Air Travel
Endau Analytics's Shukor warned that the current conflict signals a deepening of a longstanding risk corridor.
"The real risks from geopolitics to airlines began over 10 years ago when MH17 was blown up. What we are seeing today is a further extension of the breakdown in international relations,' he said.
Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 - en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur on July 17, 2014 - was shot down while flying over eastern Ukraine.
"We live in very uncertain times. Airlines will be cautious about reinstating flights until there is stability. In my opinion, there won't be calm for the next three-and-a-half years,' he said.
He said prolonged instability would severely hurt the balance sheets of airlines and could reshape how people travel globally, with a shift away from intercontinental travel towards more regional options.
Mohd Harridon said the financial structures of airlines should be economically aligned in order to diminish the repercussions of these headwinds.
"Bear in mind, the frequency of westbound flights is significant, and thus the economies of scale are heavily depleted and would take a considerable amount of time to recover.
"Mitigation plans should be in place by these airlines to optimise flight operations, and adherence to lean operations is both an economic and financial obligation,' he added. - Bernama