Ugly US jobs data just made stagflation a real risk for investors
If it wasn't so serious, it would be funny. What Trump has missed is what economists have been warning about for ages: this data is becoming increasingly unreliable. Of the 70,000 companies that are surveyed for the official jobs data, it is estimated only 24,000 reply in time to pull together the monthly public report.
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Sky News AU
25 minutes ago
- Sky News AU
Americans are tuning out ‘hypersensitive woke' outrage over Sydney Sweeney ad
Former White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney reacts to US President Donald Trump defending Sydney Sweeney over her controversial American Eagle campaign. 'There's a couple of people who apparently think the ad promotes white supremacy and eugenics, which sort of gives you a sense of where we are in the country these days,' Mr Mulvaney told Sky News Australia. 'Some really good commentary in this country in the last couple of days over how so few people are taking the bait over whether or not this is a racist ad or a racially based ad, and the general consensus is that no one cares. 'We're beyond this sort of hypersensitive woke time in the United States of America, maybe we're going back to the point where an ad about jeans is just an ad about jeans and not about politics.'
Sydney Morning Herald
an hour ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
Trump dealt a blow as the world is flooded with oil
Even without that next tranche of capacity, OPEC+'s increase in output this year will hit a market that is expected to be over-supplied by as much as 2 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter of this year The current Brent oil price is about $US68 a barrel but analysts from major banks like JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have forecast oil prices of around $US60 a barrel by the end of the year. The shift in OPEC+ strategy could be regarded as self-destructive. The key Middle Eastern producers have very low production costs (the Saudi's are less than $US15 a barrel) but need prices ranging from about $US65 a barrel (United Arab Emirates) to $US80 to $US85 a barrel (Saudi Arabia) to balance their budgets. Flooding the market with more oil will almost inevitably push prices down. Having accepted reality, however, the cartel is now trying, again, to implement a strategy it has attempted twice before – first between 2014 and 2016 and then in 2020 – where it tried to take market share away from the US shale producers by driving the price below their production costs. It underestimated the dynamic nature of the shale producers who, after an initial drop in their production, cut their costs and increased their productivity at a startling rate. Will OPEC+ be any more successful this time? Loading The US producers are more returns-focused than they were during those earlier episodes and, with some of the major basins' reserves depleting, more likely to respond to a lower oil price by mothballing their wells. Already, with West Texas Intermediate prices around $US66 a barrel, there are about 46 fewer rigs operating onshore in the US than there were a year ago. Trump might want the US companies to 'drill, baby, drill,' but a recent Dallas Federal Reserve Bank survey showed most would reduce their drilling if the US price fell towards $US60 a barrel. Breakeven costs for US producers average around the mid-$US60 dollars a barrel. There could be something of a safety valve for both the core OPEC producers and the US shale oil sector. This Friday is the deadline Trump has set for Russia to agree a ceasefire in Ukraine, with Trump threatening secondary tariffs of 100 per cent on Russia's oil customers if it doesn't comply. India which, with China and Turkey, has been one of the major buyers of Russian oil during the conflict, has been specifically targeted by Trump. Russia's new production target will be 9.45 million barrels a day next month. Any material reduction its oil sales would create space for the increased production of other OPEC+ members and take some of the pressure off oil prices. Absent the withdrawal of Russian supply, even if Russia is eventually able to find a workaround (as it has throughout the war in Ukraine and the sanctions regime the G7 has imposed), the outlook for demand in the near term isn't great. China's economy has been spluttering and is further threatened by Trump's trade wars. The US economy has weakened sharply because of, initially, the uncertainty Trump's trade and immigration policies and his assault on government agencies have created and now the reality and increasing economic impacts of his tariffs. The global economy will slow as a result of Trump's assault on global trade. Some of the faster-growing economies, and those most dependent on imported energy – the Asian, South American and African developing economies – are, perversely, among those facing the most punitive tariffs. Having accepted reality, OPEC+ is now opening the spigots. While lower oil prices might help keep a lid on inflation rates, particularly the US inflation rate, and provide some offset for those import-dependent economies from the effects of Trump's tariffs, the trade-off will be reduced economic growth. The longer-term outlook for oil is clouded. OPEC believes demand, fuelled by developing economies, will continue to grow through to 2050, rising from just over 100 million barrels a day to 123 million barrels a day. The International Energy Agency believes demand, impacted by electric vehicles and electrification more widely, will peak at about 105 million barrels a day in 2030. Loading While the long-term outcome matters for the members of the cartel, who are still overly reliant on oil revenue despite increasingly urgent attempts to diversify their economies, it's the near term outlook for oil prices that matters for an increasingly messy and threatened global economy. It also matters for Trump's economic strategy, as articulated by his Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. Bessent's '3-3-3' strategy has three major components. He aims to reduce the federal deficit to 3 per cent of gross domestic product, raise GDP growth to 3 per cent per year and add 3 million barrels per day of domestic oil production. Thanks to Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill,' which could increase US deficits by about $US3.4 trillion over the next decade, the impact of his tariffs on US inflation and growth (already running at less than half the rate achieved last year) and OPEC+'s flooding of the market with increased oil supply, each of those objectives (which never looked likely or added up to a coherent strategy) now seem wildly unrealistic.
Sydney Morning Herald
an hour ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
The political fringes dominate social media. How is your MP doing?
Right-wing firebrands and independent MPs are winning the fight for Australian social media dominance, leaving the major parties behind as politicians attempt to create election-winning brands online. From the quasi-influencers of the crossbench to powerful ministers who fly under the radar, dancing dolphin-trainers to shirtless rugby players, this masthead has collated the followings of all 226 members of federal parliament. Pulled from Facebook, X, Instagram and TikTok during the first parliamentary fortnight that ended on July 31, the data shows the rise of the right, the power of the Senate, and the lacklustre performance of some of our most senior. The numbers Australia's federal politicians collectively have 17 million followers across the four major platforms. That's an average of 74,000 per politician. US President Donald Trump has 108 million followers on X alone, though he posts primarily on his own network, Truth Social. Overseas, political figures such as New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, UK conservative justice spokesman Robert Jenrick, and a swathe of Republican figures in the United States have built political careers through constant social media posts. Every Australian federal parliamentarian is active on at least one platform, with 99.5 per cent of politicians using Facebook and Instagram. X comes next, with 68 per cent using Elon Musk's platform that was once known as Twitter, followed by TikTok, which 45 per cent use despite security concerns. Government ministers average 149,000 followers each, substantially more than shadow ministers, who average 44,000. Backbenchers and members of the crossbench average around 60,000 followers each. Ministers have larger staff than most parliamentarians, with more capacity to produce social content, and tend to have been in parliament for longer. They also have policies they can claim personal credit for, providing a steady flow of talking points to turn into TikToks and reels. Senators on average have almost double the followers of MPs, with around 105,000 for the upper house, and 58,000 for the lower. The Senate hosts eight of the top 10 most followed politicians, despite being half the size of the House of Representatives. Senators also have much larger constituencies than MPs, and for those representing states, only face re-election every six years. That's less time spent campaigning and more on the apps. Representatives from the ACT and the Northern Territory have the highest average follower counts. However, those numbers are heavily skewed by the influence of David Pocock and Jacinta Nampijinpa Price. Including Pocock the ACT average is 186,000. Without him, it's 55,000. With Price the Northern Territory average is 110,000. Without her, it's 26,000. Ed Coper, political strategist at campaign agency Populares that has worked with Teal campaigns, said there were two paths to success on social media. 'You can either be authentic or you can be angry … it's a bit like a sugar hit,' he said. 'The easiest and quickest and cheapest way to get that sugar hit is through the emotion of anger.' The successful With almost two million followers Anthony Albanese is the most followed politician in parliament. His team posts professionally produced content across all four platforms, often posting multiple times a day. However, his following may be less of a ringing endorsement and more of a perk of the job. Scott Morrison has 1.5 million followers across multiple platforms, without holding a TikTok account. Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, who has only been in the job since the election, has only 71,000 followers across the platforms. Trailing a million followers behind the PM is Pauline Hanson, whose 600,000 Facebook followers push her into second place. Hanson said she liked using social media because it gave her a chance to show 'another side' of herself. The side that knits sweaters and has run ins with non-venomous snakes on the back deck of her Queensland home. 'People might meet me and say: 'Gee, I feel as if I've known you all my life, and it's the first time I've ever met you',' Hanson said, 'It's a way of connecting with people.' Loading Her accounts are also a home for the animated series Please Explain which sends up left-wing politics that is highly popular but has been met with accusations of being offensive. Hanson said she's regularly approached by fans of the series, especially children. 'I want to engage people in politics, to empower them into understanding politics because they've got to decide, and vote for the right people that's going to represent them,' she said. On average, federal One Nation representatives are the most followed of any party on average, with 375,000 followers each. However, the party only has four members. New senators Tyron Whitten and Warwick Stacey significantly drag down the party's average with their respective 5000 and 800 followers. At the last election, the party received just 5.7 per cent of the first preference vote in the Senate. Hanson said she used the platforms because they offered her direct communication to constituents without 'the opinions of some of the journalists out there that put a spin on it.' The Greens — with 11 members — have a more uniform success as the second most followed party with 137,000 followers per representative. Liberal senator Alex Antic, who has channelled US-style culture wars online, is the most followed opposition backbencher. More than half of his 280,000 followers are on Facebook, the most successful platform for the conservative wings of parliament. 'When it comes to social media, I have never really considered a particular strategy,' Antic said. 'I just address topics like the net zero scam, the corrosive diversity, equity and inclusion agenda and the war on masculinity. There are clearly many Australians who agree with me.' Antic primarily posts videos of him appearing on Sky News programs or speaking in the Senate, alongside clips from his podcast Based which he says is all about 'cutting-edge conservatism' free of 'woke nonsense.' On Facebook, Instagram and X Antic follows only one person: Donald Trump. The Coalition's top performers all come from their right-wing. Alongside Antic and Price in the Coalition's top five are Liberal backbencher Jason Wood, senator Matthew Canavan, and opposition home affairs spokesperson Andrew Hastie. On the other side of the aisle, dolphin-trainer turned Labor MP, Sam Lim — the most followed government backbencher — has a softer approach to social media. On Facebook, the West Australian has a series of videos called 'Tastes of Tangney' where he tours restaurants in his electorate. On TikTok, he dances in a Christmas hat, celebrates being gifted novelty plates with pictures of dolphins, and poses alongside cartoon character Bluey. 'I think a lot of followers are maybe curious about me,' said Lim. 'So maybe they come and have a look. I want to bring happiness, joy and peace to people. And I think people relate. I'm a normal human being and I might be a politician, but I also do real things.' Welcoming his followers to a second term in parliament, Lim filmed himself cooking sambal salmon and eggs in an electric frying pan at his office kitchenette. The video conjured memories from last term when Labor Senator Helen Polley posted a viral TikTok video of her hard-boiling eggs wrapped in foil in her office's microwave. Coper, the strategist who has also worked with Labor, said: 'the things that make you successful on social media are in some ways anathema to how political parties work, which are tightly controlled, centralised structures.' Coper said that for politicians, social media was a push and pull action dictated by the electoral cycle. 'To be successful, you need to build a movement, you need to persuade people ... but when you're trying to win an election, you need to reach people who either have never heard of you or disagree with you and convince them. And so those are two completely different challenges.' One politician who has made an art of this process is ex-Wallaby, turned ACT senator, David Pocock. Before he announced his intentions to run for the senate at the 2022 election Pocock had around 220,000 followers on Instagram. His following has now grown to 352,000 — second only to Albanese on the platform — adding 50,000 alone during the 2025 election campaign. With 712,000 total followers, he is the fourth most popular politician in parliament, though only 6 per cent of his following live in Canberra. Pocock's team said that around 15 per cent of their followers came from Sydney, and a further 10 per cent from Melbourne. Overseas followers, particularly in the rugby-mad Pacific Islands, made up 38 per cent of his following. 'I still see value if you're actually talking about things that you think matter, and you're really genuinely trying to engage,' Pocock said of his broader following, 'If you're listening to the community and talking about issues, they generally resonate across the country.' Many of the independents swept into power at the 2022 election have made a habit of regularly posting to social media, particularly Instagram, to explain policy or consult their constituents. Allegra Spender cuts up a cake to explain the federal tax system. Monique Ryan sits in her car, asking her followers to tell her their experience with unpaid prac placements. Sophie Scamps goes for a walk by the beach to talk about cost-of-living pressures. Despite Pocock's success on the platforms — bolstered by the occasional 'thirst trap' of the senator exercising shirtless — he said that overfocus on social media would come 'at your peril'. 'We see it as just part of the job. It's fun trying to work out how you engage people. What are other ways that you can make politics interesting and meaningful to people because it is,' he said. …and the losers Despite the over-performance of the Senate, a seat in the red chamber doesn't ensure social media success. Four of the five least followed parliamentarians are senators. At the bottom of the pack are newly elected Tasmanian Labor senators Josh Dolega and Richard Dowling, who have around 500 and 600 followers respectively. For those with titles, newly selected senator Leah Blyth has the smallest following of any shadow minister with just under 1200 followers. South Australian senator Don Farrell — who has 15 more years in parliament than Blyth — has the least of any minister, with 10,000 followers, despite being a major factional powerbroker and leading negotiations with foreign powers as trade minister. Loading Coalition has an average of 41,00 followers per member, the lowest of any party, in part because of the loss of high profile MPs at the election and the lack of ministerial positions. With 104 followers on Instagram, Labor's Tony Zappia isn't even followed by his party's whole caucus. The same goes for Liberal senator Maria Kovacic, who only has 11 followers on X. Other shortcomings are less data-driven. Labor senator Dorinda Cox, for example, falls somewhere in the middle of the pack. Her TikTok is yet to be updated to reflect that she is no longer a member of the Greens.
