T5 a game-changer for S'pore aviation, but Changi must keep moving to beat rival airports

Straits Times

15-05-2025

Changi Airport's fifth terminal will be as big as Terminals 1 to 4 combined. PHOTO: CHANGI AIRPORT GROUP
News analysis T5 a game-changer for S'pore aviation, but Changi must keep moving to beat rival airports
SINGAPORE – In June 1975, a major national project got underway to reclaim land for a new international airport in Changi. It was a bold move that would eventually cement Singapore's position as a key aviation hub.
Some 50 years later, the airport has marked yet another significant milestone – one that is no less bold or ambitious. On May 14, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong broke ground on Changi Airport's fifth terminal, which will be as big as Terminals 1 to 4 combined.
'Like our forefathers who chose to build Changi, we dare to dream big and aim high today,' PM Wong said at a ceremony to mark the start of construction on Terminal 5 (T5), which will open in the mid-2030s.
He described the mega terminal as a 'bold move' to keep Changi ahead amid intensifying competition from other airports and an uncertain global economy.
A bold move, it surely is.
Nearly 12 years in the making, T5 will be a long-awaited but much-needed boost to Singapore's aviation industry – a major employer and driver of the economy that also powers other sectors such as tourism and logistics.
The new terminal will allow Changi to serve 140 million passengers yearly, over 55 per cent more than its present capacity of 90 million. It will put Changi in the league of 'mega airports' – those able to handle more than 100 million passengers a year.
The investment is timely. Competition from other regional air hubs cannot be ignored.
These hubs in the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East are similarly expanding, with some projects expected to wrap up ahead of Changi's T5.
Hong Kong International Airport, for instance, will be able to handle 120 million passengers yearly with its third runway, which opened in November 2024, and an expanded Terminal 2, slated to be operational in late 2025.
This will allow the airport to capitalise on passenger and cargo demand into mainland China.
Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport is building a fourth runway and a new South Terminal by 203 3 , which will take its annual handling capacity to 150 million.
In the Middle East, Dubai is building what it describes as the world's largest airport terminal. The first phase of the project at Dubai's Al Maktoum International Airport – which will replace its existing international airport – will allow it to handle 150 million passengers yearly by 2032, with capacity climbing eventually to 260 million.
About 30 airports in the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East have committed US$240 billion (S$312 billion) in the next decade to upgrade existing facilities and build new ones, according to the Airports Council International.
The Asia-Pacific air passenger market is already the world's biggest, accounting for over a third of travel, and passenger numbers are expected to double in the 2040s.
It is, therefore, vital for Changi to stay ahead of the curve and ride this growth.
On the surface, Singapore may appear to be lagging behind some airports in executing its expansion plans. Experts, however, concur that its strategy is prudent and deliberate, with an eye on long-term sustainability.
When the Covid-19 pandemic slammed the brakes on Changi's planned expansion for two years from 2020 to 2022, it gave the team a critical opportunity to review the terminal's design, drawing lessons from the global health crisis.
It was back to the drawing board to design a pandemic-proof terminal, should the next health crisis hit. This would include ensuring that if needed, T5 could operate as smaller sub-terminals.
This would allow spaces to be converted into testing facilities or for the segregation of high-risk passengers during outbreaks.
While other airports continued expanding during the pandemic or resumed plans more quickly, Changi's pause was 'not a delay in ambition, but a reflection of Singapore's rigorous planning approach', said Mr Mayur Patel, Asia head at consultancy OAG Aviation.
'The result is a future-ready terminal that integrates lessons from the pandemic.'
Ms Mabel Kwan, managing director at Alton Aviation Consultancy, agreed, saying it was prudent for Changi to take stock of how air traffic patterns have changed post-Covid-19, and make critical adjustments to T5's design.
'Going forward, there will be more, instead of fewer, disruptions,' she said, adding that the pause was a 'necessary step' for longer-term growth.
Mr Patel added that although the 10-year construction schedule may seem long, it aligns with projected air traffic demand over the next decade.
Although air travel demand in the region is expected to be strong, he added that the global supply chain glut that is delaying aircraft deliveries will likely last at least five more years, hampering capacity growth for airlines.
Between now and T5's opening, Changi needs to focus on areas such as building airline partnerships, bringing in new routes and investing in digital innovation to maintain its status as a leading air hub, he added.
Another noteworthy move that the scale of T5 will enable is the consolidation of the national carrier's operations.
T5 will be the new home of Singapore Airlines (SIA) and its budget arm Scoot – a logical and long-overdue move that will bring what is now an operation scattered across Terminals 1 to 3 under one roof.
Ms Kwan said transfers between flights operated by SIA from T2 and T3 and those by Scoot, which is based in T1, are now operationally more challenging.
Significantly, said Mr Patel, this move to house SIA and Scoot at T5 will offer a more seamless transfer experience for passengers, particularly those with itineraries involving both carriers.
It will also reduce minimum connecting times, allowing Changi to offer better connectivity for transfer passengers and improving its attractiveness as a hub.
T5 sits within the 1,080ha Changi East, which also houses Changi's third runway.
The runway is estimated to start operations in the last quarter of 2027, The Straits Times reported in April.
It is this three-runway system that will keep Changi competitive, said independent aviation analyst Brendan Sobie of Sobie Aviation.
With three runways operational before T5 opens, the biggest challenge in relation to capacity will be resolved, given the present slot constraints with two runways.
'The third runway should allow full utilisation of the current terminals – although increased use of bus gates is likely – in the interim,' Mr Sobie added.
There is much to do and much to look forward to. But with expansion being a constant for many large air hubs, the question is, what's next for Changi beyond T5?
Space, Ms Kwan said, may no longer be the deciding factor at that point.
With automation and technology being integral to the running of future airports, she said it will come down to how Changi leverages technology to continuously improve the efficiency of airport operations.
'The dimension to growth is not simply space,' she noted.
When ready, T5 will be extensively automated, with the terminal expected to leverage everything from baggage robots to video analytics and artificial intelligence to predict potential flight delays.
There is no doubt that the mega terminal will bring benefits to Singapore's aviation industry, economy, and Singaporeans by way of new jobs and opportunities.
The competition for flights and passengers will only continue to intensify.
To stay ahead of the game, Changi cannot and must not stand still. It's time to think of the next lap.
Kenneth Cheng is assistant news editor at The Straits Times. He oversees transport coverage, spanning the land transport, aviation and maritime sectors.
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