Analysis: How IndiGo reported a healthy profit in a challenging quarter

Mint

3 days ago

IndiGo, India's largest carrier by fleet and domestic market share, declared a profit of ₹ 2,176.3 crore for Q1-FY26. The results come amidst a traditionally strong quarter getting impacted by the terrorist attack in Pahalgam in April, Operation Sindoor in May and AI171 crash in June. The airline had declared a profit of ₹ 2,279 crore in Q1-FY25, while it had posted a record-breaking ₹ 3,089 crore profit in Q1-FY24. This is the third consecutive profitable quarter for the airline. While it may not be in line with past profits, an over ₹ 2,000 crore profit and a revenue of over ₹ 20,000 crore, which is now becoming a benchmark, indicate that despite the headwinds, the airline is on a trip of its own, worried but not impacted by what is happening around.
The quarter was marred by the terrorist attack in Pahalgam in April, Operation Sindoor in May and the AI171 crash in June. IndiGo continued to grow at a faster rate than the market, gaining a higher market share in the process, which on the domestic side stood at 64.4 per cent. The Q1-FY26 domestic traffic in India grew by 4.41 per cent compared to last year, while IndiGo had an upper hand, growing at 10 per cent compared to the same quarter last year.
Sequentially, the airline had 18 fewer aircraft in its fleet, largely driven by the return of wet/damp leases in its fleet, which saw a significant reduction. This was due to the grounding of its Pratt & Whitney-powered planes remaining in the 40s. The reduction of damp leases also helped financially to an extent and did not impact the capacity guidance.
The airline saw a decrease in yields by 5 per cent, while its load factors also decreased by 2.1 points. The airline has stopped chasing load factors as a lot of its domestic network remains a monopoly or a duopoly, and the spread gives connections and timings which remain unparalleled. With a load factor of 84.6 per cent, the airline had a lot of room to drop fares and seems to have focused on yields rather than attracting more passengers at lower returns.
This also has its benefits, where fewer passengers with higher fares help with faster turnarounds, better customer experience and more room for cargo, which is typically high paying. However, it remains to be seen if the airline can better this as seat, a commodity which is perishable, and better forecasting to discount early buying can help improve revenue as a whole, though it may have an impact on unit revenue numbers.
As terrorists attacked innocent civilians in Pahalgam, Srinagar was poised to have its best-ever summer in terms of flights. As cancellations mounted, IndiGo was quick to respond to the changes but also had a presence across multiple geographies where it could add flights, offer connections and help passengers draw up new plans.
The scale and scattered network have helped IndiGo two-fold: first to de-risk a particular geography and second to offer alternatives to passengers. In June, after the Air India tragedy and subsequent cancellations by Air India, IndiGo automatically benefited on the domestic routes while it remains absent from the international routes where Air India reduced frequencies.
The airline will start a reciprocal codeshare with KLM, offering flights beyond Amsterdam, where passengers can fly till Amsterdam on IndiGo-operated flights where the damp leased Norse Atlantic Dreamliner is deployed. The airline is increasing frequency to Amsterdam from September as the second Norse Atlantic Dreamliner joins its fleet. Two more planes will subsequently join in the October to December quarter while the last two will join in the first quarter of calendar year 2026.
The airline has scaled back its network in the July to September quarter in line with the market demand as the second quarter of the financial year is one of the two weaker quarters. This helps the airline complete maintenance activities in this quarter. This may increase the maintenance expenditure but will get the airline ready for the lucrative Q3 which is traditionally full of festivals and holidays seeing increased travel.
The airline has given guidance of mid-single-digit growth in terms of capacity, while the yields expectation to be the same as last year. IndiGo seems to be on a trip of its own, come rain or shine.