Russia vs West: Will NATO protect Baltic states from Russian aggression or will the region face Ukraine-like war?
: Will
NATO
protect
Baltic states
from
Russian aggression
or will the region face Ukraine-like war?
NATO's ability to protect Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from potential Russian aggression has come under focus after recent interceptions involving
Italian F-35
fighter jets. The missions highlight increased Russian aerial activity near the Alliance's north-eastern flank and raise questions about NATO's capacity to prevent a Ukraine-like scenario in the Baltics.
Will NATO Protect Baltic States from Russian Aggression?
NATO's air policing is a defensive mission using fighter aircraft on quick reaction alert. It relies on a network of radar sites, control centres, and Combined Air Operations Centres, forming the NATO Integrated Air Defence System. This network operates 24/7, allowing responses within seconds to potential airspace incidents.
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NATO Fighter Jets and Military Personnel Involved
Countries without their own fighter aircraft are covered by NATO allies. Since 2004, Baltic States have received air policing coverage, initially from Šiauliai Air Base in Lithuania and later from Ämari Air Base in Estonia. Deployments usually involve four fighters and 50–100 personnel.
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NATO Training to Maintain Readiness
To ensure operational readiness, NATO conducts the Ramstein Alloy training series. These exercises involve Allied aircrews and Baltic air forces, reinforcing NATO solidarity and ensuring standardised procedures across nations. The focus remains on professional and safe mission conduct.
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Russia vs West: Italian F-35 Interception of Russian Aircraft
On August 13, two Italian Air Force F-35 Lightning II jets scrambled from Ämari Air Base to intercept Russian aircraft near NATO airspace. This was the first operational deployment of Italian fifth-generation fighters in the Baltic Air Policing role.
The intercepted aircraft—a Sukhoi Su-24 and a Sukhoi Su-27—flew without flight plans or active transponders. NATO links such behaviour to reconnaissance and probing missions. The Su-24 is a low-level strike aircraft, while the Su-27 is a long-range air superiority fighter, often escorting strike aircraft.
Russia vs West: Russian Activity from Kaliningrad
NATO assessments indicate that these Russian flights originated from the
Kaliningrad
exclave. The proximity allows rapid deployment, enabling Russia to test NATO reaction times. These flights form part of a broader pattern of increased military activity in the Baltic region.
F-35 Jets Advanced Capabilities
The Italian-operated F-35s bring stealth, radar, and sensor capabilities to NATO's quick reaction network. Their deployment provides tactical advantages and intelligence-gathering opportunities regarding Russian aerial behaviour. NATO sees this as strengthening its deterrence posture in the region.
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Russia vs West: Similar Incidents in Other Regions
On July 22, 2025, NORAD intercepted Russian Tu-95MS strategic bombers and fighter escorts near Alaska. US F-35 and F-16 jets identified and monitored the formation, which stayed in international airspace. The mission lasted 15 hours and included aerial refuelling.
NATO's Position on Baltic Defence
NATO maintains that the air policing mission preserves Allied airspace integrity and reassures member states. While the Baltic States are covered under Article 5 of the NATO treaty, increased Russian flights raise operational demands on the Alliance's readiness and coordination.
FAQs
How does NATO protect Baltic States from Russian air threats?
NATO uses 24/7 radar surveillance, quick reaction fighter deployments from bases in Lithuania and Estonia, and multinational training exercises to protect Baltic airspace from potential Russian incursions.
Why are
Russian military flights
near the Baltics a concern?
Such flights, often without flight plans or transponders, are linked to reconnaissance and probing missions, testing NATO's reaction times and readiness along its eastern flank.
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