Louis Vuitton Stock: Undervalued Titan Amid Luxury Market Recovery

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3 days ago

Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessy, the $250 billion luxury giant behind names like Christian Dior, Louis Vuitton, Tiffany & Co., and Dom Perignon, has seen its stock fall roughly 48% from its all-time highs of 901.00 EUR a share to 470.00 EUR currently. The pullback has largely been pinned on fears surrounding a slowing Chinese economy and broader luxury demand fatigue. But the market may be mispricing LVMH's resilience, its global diversification, and its embedded dominance across fashion, leather goods, wines, spirits, watches, cosmetics, and more. The stock is an exceptional buy at such low valuations with risk return skewed heavily to the upside. Louis Vuitton is astonishing in its scope and operates a diversified portfolio of exceptionally strong brands.
Louis Vuitton Owned Brands (https://elegance-suisse.ch/project/lvmh/ )
In the earnings report today for the first half of 2025, it was known going into the call that luxury markets are in a severe glut, the decline in revenues for LVMH were relatively subdued at only a 4% decline year over year. From a financial perspective this is not an especially dire outcome for a company and given consumer confidence imploding earlier this year and the 39.8B EUR revenue + minor decline is if anything a sign of resilience in the face of significant fear.
Misunderstood China Risk
The biggest overhang on LVMH's valuation has been China. Chinese consumers account for 20 to 30% of global luxury spending, depending on currency exchange. The narrative is simple: China is slowing, consumer confidence is low, youth unemployment is stubbornly high, and debt capital markets are still shaky. This thesis, paired with worries over rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions, have led investors to price in prolonged weakness for luxury houses with large Chinese exposure. The reality is, China has an aspiring middle class and consumers who are just as likely to enjoy luxury goods and nice things and through LVMH you get exposure to their wealth without the "baggage" and downsides of investing directly in a Chinese company. The concept of an extremely long term decline in luxury purchases in my view is not especially realistic, there is cyclical flows to discretionary purchases and recovery is seen in times of strong economic activity.
But this fear is starting to look stale. China's economy posted a 5.4% YoY GDP growth rate in Q1 2025, beating expectations and signaling green shoots of recovery. Even if growth slows in coming quarters, there's reason to believe stimulus and monetary easing from the People's Bank of China (with 3% short term rates) will be employed to counteract any downside, particularly in response to U.S.-imposed tariffs. In effect, the Chinese consumer may be in better shape than headlines suggest and LVMH is perfectly positioned to benefit when spending picks up.
Moreover, if geopolitical tensions continue to strain U.S. China relations, it's plausible that China redirects some of its economic and cultural alignment more heavily toward the European Union. LVMH, as a French albeit globally integrated company, may ironically stand to gain from the very tensions the market fears and trade between these markets would not be subject to significant tariffs.
Dominance and Diversification: Trading at a Discount
At a current price of $470 for a relative comparison to its all time highs of 901.00 EUR a share, the stock appears undervalued based on a DCF with conservative estimates. The estimates utilized in the DCF are an EPS of 26.40 EUR which was arrived at by taking first half eps of 11.4 EUR and imputing a second half (typically 60-65% of revenue falls within H2 and earnings ~30% stronger due to holiday season spending)
Using a 7% discount rate, 5% growth for five years tapering to 3% long-term (significantly lower than historical averages), the 1-year intrinsic value is estimated at $652.31. This implies a justified 1 year P/E of 24.34 and a potential 37% upside towards intrinsic value. While this DCF may not reflect reality, the conservative inputs would likely be surpassed given LVMH's operational history and the company especially shines in periods of excess/consumer growth.
DCF: Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessy (EUR):
What many overlook is how diversified LVMH really is. This isn't just a handbag business or Louis Vuitton itself, it's a vertically integrated machine of luxury across multiple segments. Its Fashion & Leather Goods segment remains its crown jewel, but the Wines & Spirits, Selective Retailing (think Sephora), and Watches & Jewelry segments add significant revenue diversification. In fact, despite the slowdown in China, the U.S. and European consumer have shown pockets of resilience, and tourist spending in key cities like Paris and Milan has begun to rebound.
With expected earnings per share of 26.4 in 2025, LVMH is currently trading around 17x earnings, incredibly cheap for a company with this level of brand moat and margin stability. Historically, LVMH has traded closer to 2430x earnings during more normalized periods of demand and sentiment, and with both Louis Vuitton and Moet Chandon being roughly 200 year old companies, its clear they are capable of standing the test of time.
Macro Tailwinds and Currency Hedge
Beyond fundamentals, LVMH offers something rare for US based investors: real Euro denominated income and exposure to a strengthening foreign currency. The U.S. dollar has shown signs of peaking, especially as markets begin to price in Federal Reserve rate cuts in late 2025. In contrast, the Euro has gained strength on the back of resilient EU economic data and macroeconomic factors.
That means LVMH's dividend which is paid in Euro serves not just as yield, but as a subtle hedge against dollar debasement. In a portfolio heavily tied to U.S. assets, that foreign currency exposure matters (note French dividend withholding would apply). For an investor seeking an overlay for returns, executing a carry trade with the Euro (~3.5% libor rates) during times of outsized exchange rates would amplify returns related to the Louis Vuitton investment albeit with the risk of the US dollar remaining weak in the longer term.
Relatively Strong Earnings & A Buying Opportunity
The reality is LVMH doesn't need China to be perfect to outperform. Even modest recovery, paired with strength in the U.S. and Europe and tourist demand returning to pre COVID levels, could deliver robust earnings growth. A reasonable estimate for forecast revenue growth to return to mid single digits in H2 2025 and roughly 30 EPS for 2026 based on commentary and past performance in a regime of lower inflation.
Luxury remains one of the most defensible business models on the planet, price inelasticity, extreme brand loyalty, and high gross margins all contribute. But what makes LVMH special is its balance: the group isn't reliant on a single product, region, or trend. It owns the entire value chain of luxury and in a world where wealth continues to concentrate, the company's core customer base is still growing.
LVMH is also uniquely positioned as a defensive play against escalating tariff fears thanks to its truly global footprint. This global diversification cushions the company from shocks in any single market and reduces dependency on U.S.-China trade flows. Even if tariffs escalate between Washington and Beijing, LVMH's robust European and emerging market demand can act as a counterbalance. Its supply chains are also strategically spread across multiple continents, limiting vulnerability to any one country's policy shifts. This kind of geographic insulation is rare in luxury and makes LVMH more resilient than most in the face of rising protectionism.
Risks and Geopolitical Concerns:
LVMH faces risk from economic slowdowns, particularly in major markets like China, which account for a large portion of global luxury demand. When economic conditions weaken or consumer confidence dips, discretionary spending on high-end goods tends to decline at much higher rates than essentials. This can directly impact LVMH's sales across segments such as fashion, cosmetics, and jewelry. A slowdown in China, where luxury consumption is closely tied to income growth and social mobility, can have an outsized effect on revenue, leaving the company vulnerable to domestic policy changes and global macroeconomic shocks.
While LVMH is lobbying through EU channels and exploring local production options, any sustained tariff pressure could dent margins and slow growth in the near term. The stronger Euro and increases in relative exchange rates could reduce profits when converting foreign sales while making European goods more costly. Even though LVMH is a strong company, these risks can affect its results in the short term.
Final Take
At today's valuation, in my opinion LVMH stock is pricing in prolonged pessimism, although when fear fades and earnings normalize, the rebound could be sharp. With a 40%+ upside just to return to historical multiples, plus currency tailwinds and a dividend yield north of 2%, patient investors may be looking at a rare opportunity to buy the world's most dominant luxury empire at a significant discount.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
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