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Business of Fashion
8 hours ago
- Entertainment
- Business of Fashion
Has Fashion Given Up on Emerging Designers?
Dear BoF Community, ROME and MILAN — This week in Rome, I had the honour of sitting down with Giancarlo Giammetti for an exclusive interview on The BoF Podcast. For those not in the know, Mr. Giammetti first met the designer Valentino Garavani by chance on July 31, 1960, setting in motion one of fashion's most enduring — and most successful — creative partnerships. Together, they built Valentino into a global fashion powerhouse, celebrated for its elegance, craftsmanship and cultural influence. This was a love story and a business partnership, beautifully (and honestly) rendered in Matt Tyrnauer's 2008 documentary, 'Valentino: The Last Emperor.' Mr. Giammetti was refreshingly candid in our conversation, laying bare his thoughts on the state of fashion today, the musical chairs of constant designer shuffles, the egos of designers who want to be bigger than the brands they work for, and most of all, the lack of support for emerging designers. 'How many new brands have been created? I don't know,' he said. 'The last one I remember is [Giambattista] Valli or maybe Jacquemus. Why? I don't think that the big conglomerates want to put money in somebody new. They want to [focus] on their own portfolio, the names that they [already] have. But to invest in one talent? I haven't seen anything.' There was a similar refrain when I chatted with fellow jury members at the Camera Moda Fashion Trust Grant in Milan later in the week. I was busy typing away on my computer at the Fondazione Sozzani, doing a final review of BoF's reporting on Maria Grazia Chiuri's confirmed exit from Dior, when Marco Bizzarri arrived for the judging. He popped over to say hello and we chatted about the dire and uncertain state of the industry. Completely independently of my conversation with Mr Giammetti, he mentioned how concerned he is that the big groups don't seem to be interested in backing young talents. I reminded him that Kering's investments in Christopher Kane and Altuzarra — as well as LVMH's investment in Nicholas Kirkwood — were largely seen as failures. Not because these aren't talented designers with real potential, but because placing small, emerging businesses within the structure of gargantuan luxury groups means they received very little management attention. But I agreed with his point that if we don't support and cultivate emerging talents — even if the groups lose some money on these investments — the creative future of fashion is doomed. LVMH's investment in Jonathan Anderson's label, which coincided with his appointment as creative director of Loewe in 2013, tells a slightly different story. While J.W. Anderson is still a small-ish, loss-making business which did around £30 million in revenues in 2023, according to filings at the UK's Companies House, Loewe is now nearing €2 billion in sales. The business has grown almost tenfold since Anderson took over and everyone is now awaiting the confirmation that he will take over as artistic director of Dior. Not a bad return on that investment. Later, over a plate of pasta after the judging had concluded, Sara Sozzani Maino, who has been spearheading the Fashion Trust for the last few years, threw her hands in the air Italian-style, expressing to me how hard it has been to find financial support from the Italian fashion industry for the trust, which aims to support the new generation of Made in Italy designers. Remo Ruffini and Moncler have been especially supportive, she said, as well as Max Mara, Valentino, Gucci and Pomellato who have supported the Trust for some time. But the vast majority of brands declined to help, offering up a range of reasons from budgets being closed to focusing on their own internal support initiatives. She was asking for just €50,000 per brand. In the absence of this kind of financial support, some of the finalists for the Fashion Trust Grant explained to me that they have to do consulting work for other brands to survive. But this means they have less time to focus on their own businesses and are designing to achieve someone else's ideas, even if in their heart all they want to do is focus on developing their own creative vision. As any seasoned entrepreneur will tell you, it's much harder to succeed at building your own business if it's just a part-time job. At the gala dinner in the evening, my seatmate Carla Sozzani said she is worried that even if the young designers can survive the turbulent market environment, they have nowhere to sell their clothes. The multi-brand retail market in Italy is in turmoil, just as it is in the US and many parts of the world. (Emerging designers in Italy complained to me of the same problems of not getting paid by Saks, Neiman Marcus and Bergdorf Goodman, among others.) What they also need, Sozzani said, is a partner like Mr. Giammetti, who provided a lifeline of support for Mr. Valentino through all of the rigours of building a business from scratch — including a bankruptcy, buying the business back from their first investor and then navigating several waves of different investors who came afterwards, eventually leading Mr. Valentino and Mr. Giammetti to leave the business after the control investors wanted was all too much. Just after our main courses, the three winners selected by the jury — Lessico Familiare, Francesco Murano and Institution — were awarded their €50,000 grants. Then, Maino stepped to the microphone to announce there was a surprise. Winners and Judges at the gala dinner for Camera Moda Fashion Trust. (Courtesy) Marco Bizzarri came on stage to express his passion for Moja Rova, another emerging brand that many of the judges also liked. It was hard for us to choose from so many deserving applicants, so Bizzarri put his money where his mouth is and fronted the €50,000 personally to offer a fourth prize. This is the kind of support we need to see from more of the big players in our industry. As I said to Mr Giammetti at the end of our interview when he turned the tables to ask my opinion, 'I think about the cost that this is going to have on our industry in the future. If we don't nurture smaller creative talents and businesses today, what will fashion look like 10, 20 years from now?' Imran Amed, Founder and Editor in Chief Here are my other top picks from our analysis on fashion, luxury and beauty: 1. Why Blockbuster Deals Are Back in Fashion. In an era of tariffs and turmoil, fashion's boldest players are placing billion-dollar bets — and finding bargains in a high-risk, high-reward wave of M&A. In an era of tariffs and turmoil, fashion's boldest players are placing billion-dollar bets — and finding bargains in a high-risk, high-reward wave of M&A. (Courtesy) 2. Hello, Goodbye: Maria Grazia Chiuri's Next Chapter. If there was 'beautiful confusion' in the mix of cruise and couture the powerhouse designer paraded in Rome on Tuesday night, the standing ovation at the end of the show left little doubt she was saying goodbye to Dior after a transformational near-decade tenure and hello to her next act, resurrecting the storied Teatro della Cometa. Dior designer Maria Grazia Chiuri staged an elaborate runway spectacle at the Villa Albani Torlonia in her hometown of Rome on Tuesday night. (Getty Images) 3. Can Jewellery Continue to Outshine Fashion? As leather goods lose their cool amid rising prices and quality concerns, fine jewellery is emerging as luxury's shining star. Jewellery giants like Cartier continue to steer clear of the post-pandemic price hikes implemented by many fashion brands. (Cartier) 4. Why Food Is Everywhere in Fashion Advertising. As foodie culture peaks and the cost of living rises, food is popping up more than ever in fashion imagery. Fashion's latest marketing obsession is food. (BoF Collage) 5. David Bailey, Immortal. A new exhibition aims to prove the iconic photographer's claim to everlasting impact rests on more than his portraits from Sixties London, writes Tim Blanks. David Bailey and Madge. (© David Bailey) This Weekend on The BoF Podcast The author has shared a YouTube video. You will need to accept and consent to the use of cookies and similar technologies by our third-party partners (including: YouTube, Instagram or Twitter), in order to view embedded content in this article and others you may visit in future. In this exclusive interview, Mr. Giammetti reflects on the founding days of Valentino, the importance of protecting creativity in a fashion market that prioritises commercialisation, and why it is critical for the industry to support future generations of designers who are overlooked by a fashion system under pressure. 'This continuous change of people, using people to cover jobs … it makes a big confusion. None of them really becomes a part of the legacy of the company. That's what is a big problem today,' says Giammetti. To receive this email in your inbox each Saturday, sign up to The Daily Digest newsletter for agenda-setting intelligence, analysis and advice that you won't find anywhere else.
Yahoo
8 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Should You Invest in European Stocks Now?
Just six months ago, betting on European stock markets over their American counterparts seemed almost unthinkable. Following our previous article on the US equity market's strengths and limitations, it's now time to turn our attention to Europe as a compelling alternative for investors. The European equity market is clearly attracting renewed interest. With improving macroeconomic conditions, increasingly discounted valuations, and a noticeable rise in institutional confidence, Europe is presenting compelling opportunities. However, structural challenges and geopolitical uncertainties remain. European equities remain significantly less expensive than their U.S. counterparts. As of 2025, the Euro Stoxx 50 trades at approximately 15 times forward earnings, compared to over 20 times for the S&P 500. On a longer-term measure such as the CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings) ratio, Europe is trading at only a 10% premium to its historical average, while the U.S. trades at a 30% premium. These more conservative valuations mean that European stocks might offer a better 'safety net' for investors, as they're not priced as aggressively. What's more, European companies tend to pay higher dividends – about 2% more than what you'd get from the S&P 500 in the U.S. This makes them particularly appealing if you're an investor looking for regular income. Historically, European companies have favored giving cash back to shareholders through dividends, unlike many U.S. firms that often prefer stock buybacks to boost their earnings per share and investor confidence. Following a period of economic disruption—mostly due to the Ukraine war and energy price shocks—many European economies are now stabilizing. Lower borrowing costs, a more supportive monetary environment, and fiscal initiatives, particularly in Germany, are helping fuel this recovery. The largest economy in Europe will focus on infrastructure investment with a €500 billion fiscal stimulus plan over the next 12 years. Additionally, a growing consensus across Europe to increase defense spending—potentially to 3.5% of GDP in the coming years and at €800bn over the next four years according to the European Commission—signals a longer-term commitment to bolstering domestic demand and industrial capacity. J.P. Morgan suggests that Europe's improving economic situation could lead to its overall economy (GDP) growing by 1% to 1.5% next year. They also believe that the profits of companies listed on the Euro Stoxx (a major European stock index) could see mid-to-high single-digit growth in 2026 and 2027. This means that European company earnings might start to catch up with those in the U.S., closing the performance gap between the two regions. Europe is home to global leaders across multiple industries. Luxury brands like LVMH, Hermès, and Dior; automotive giants such as BMW and Volkswagen; and pharmaceutical powerhouses including Novartis and Roche illustrate the region's depth of world-class companies. Select sectors such as healthcare, telecommunications, and defense appear especially well-positioned. European healthcare remains reasonably valued and has long-term growth potential. Defense stocks have benefited from geopolitical shifts, while consolidation and regulatory reforms in telecoms are enhancing pricing power. A significant development in 2025 is the European Commission's push for a 'Savings and Investment Union'—an initiative to redirect over €10 trillion in bank-held household savings into productive capital markets. This reform aims to boost retail investor participation, deepen capital markets, and improve corporate financing, ultimately enhancing economic competitiveness. Europe's capital markets have responded positively to recent political and financial initiatives. The region has seen increased inflows into European ETFs and a notable rise in demand for 'safe assets' such as EU and EIB bonds, now valued at €1.4 trillion—over triple the level from 2010. While stabilization is underway, several headwinds persist. The war in Ukraine continues to pose geopolitical and economic risks, particularly with respect to energy security. Europe remains heavily exposed to fluctuations in energy prices, which have historically been much higher than in the U.S. Although investments in renewables and new gas sources from Qatar and the U.S. may ease this over time, the short-term outlook remains volatile. Additionally, while trade tensions may favor some European software and services companies, many industrial exporters are vulnerable to rising tariffs and shifts in global supply chains. As a major trading bloc, the EU's fortunes are closely tied to international trade dynamics. Europe faces long-term demographic headwinds, including an aging and, in some countries, shrinking population. This trend can limit labor force growth, reduce consumer demand, and increase the strain on public finances. Countries such as Germany and Italy exemplify this challenge. From an equity perspective, stagnant demographics can act as a drag on growth and earnings potential, particularly in sectors reliant on domestic consumption or a growing workforce. European markets are sometimes viewed as less agile than their U.S. counterparts. Regulatory complexity, slower innovation cycles, and fragmented capital markets have long been considered structural weaknesses. While reforms are underway, especially in financial markets, these changes will take time to fully materialize. Many European sectors, including banking, automotive, and construction, are highly cyclical. While these may benefit from improved GDP growth, they are also more vulnerable during downturns. Defense and infrastructure plays, while currently strong, may face future volatility due to elevated valuations and shifting public spending priorities. Europe offers a compelling investment case in 2025, grounded in relative valuation advantages, improving macroeconomic stability, and targeted policy support. It also benefits from world-leading industries and a renewed focus on capital market integration. However, investors must weigh these strengths against persistent structural challenges, including demographic pressures, energy dependence, and geopolitical risks. A selective, diversified approach—focusing on sectors with resilient fundamentals and supportive policy trends—may offer the best way to navigate the European equity landscape. This article was originally posted on FX Empire Sezzle Shares Sizzle After Big Money Inflows Portugal: Persistent Political Fragmentation to Test Growth and Fiscal Prospects Uber Picking Up Big Money Inflows Monster's Comeback Continues Paycom Grows on Big Money Support Weekly Data for Oil and Gold: Price Review for the Week Ahead Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Fashion United
14 hours ago
- Entertainment
- Fashion United
ANDAM Fashion Awards: 2025's 11 finalists revealed
The 35th edition of the ANDAM Fashion Awards competition has unveiled its eleven finalists for 2025. The five nominees for the Grand Prize and the Special Prize are Alain Paul, Egonlab, Meryll Rogge, Willy Chavarria and Zomer, while six finalists have been selected for the Pierre Bergé and Fashion Accessories prizes. ANDAM president Sidney Toledano, together with both permanent and guest 2025 jury members, will now deliberate and chose the winners from those shortlisted. The recipient of the Grand Prize will be awarded 300,000 euros, while 100,000 euros will go to the recipient of the Special Prize. Alainpaul AW25 Credits: Lauchmetrics 5 finalists for the Grand Prize and Special Prize Alain Paul, designer of the eponymous brand Alainpaul, has an rooted in a fundamental trend: balletcore. Since his debut on the Parisian scene, Paul has presented his collections at Paris' Théâtre du Châtelet, a symbolic venue that reinforces his DNA. The designer is also currently competing for the LVMH 2025 prize. Parisian label EgonLab, founded by Kévin Nompeix and Florentin Glémarec, is pitted as a major outsider. Since its debut in 2019, the brand has been well praised for its ability to merge genderless tailoring with the punk spirit. The duo already won the Pierre Bergé prize in 2021. Meryll Rogge studied at the Royal Academy of Fine Arts in Antwerp, Belgium, before working for Dries Van Noten, then at Marc Jacobs in New York. For autumn/winter 2025, Rogge showed in Paris, exploring the art of layering, with a collection that mixed and matched outerwear in a haphazard manner. Willy Chavarria made a name for himself during Paris Fashion Week in March 2025 by parading a resolutely anti-Trump message. The Mexican-American fashion designer incorporates messages related to Latino identity, immigration, the queer community, social justice and the working class into his collections. This was enough to awaken the fervour of American Diane Pernet, who chose him to be the president of her ASVOFF 2025 fashion film festival. Zomer is a young women's ready-to-wear brand based in Paris, founded in 2023 by designer Danial Aitouganov and stylist Imruh Asha. Inspired by the art world, its aesthetic is fresh and colourful. Credits: Willy Chavarria 3 finalists of the Pierre Bergé prize: Burc Akyol, Jeanne Friot and Mouty Franco-Turkish designer Burc Akyol entered the FHCM women's calendar in March 2025, after having previously presented a non-gendered collection in the men's calendar. Parisian designer Jeanne Friot needs no introduction, a darling of the media both for her radical style and for her activism in favour of the queer community. Most recently, she was known for designing the outfit of the now infamous silver horseman that opened the 2024 Paris Olympic Games. A fusion of streetwear and tailoring, Mouty is a Parisian menswear ready-to-wear brand founded in 2018 by the couple Bertille and Thomas Mouty. While little is currently known about the brand, it has a shop in the sixteenth arrondissement of Paris and is sold at Printemps and Galeries Lafayette. Joan of Arc costume by Jeanne Friot for the opening ceremony of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games Credits: Jeanne Friot 3 finalists of the Fashion Accessories prize: Panconesi, Phileo, Sarah Levy Marco Panconesi is behind a contemporary jewellery brand. Before launching his own label, he collaborated with luxury houses such as Givenchy, Balenciaga, Mugler, Peter Pilotto and Rihanna's brand, Fenty. Philéo is a young French luxury footwear brand, founded by designer Philéo Landowski. His creative universe goes beyond the boundaries of fashion. In September 2024, he distinguished himself in a collaboration with Japanese artist Tadashi Kawamata, known for his works exploring the transformation of the urban landscape. Together, they created the installation 'Avalanches', burying the courtyard of the Parisian concept store Dover Street Market under a pile of wooden chairs. Sarah Levy's name has been circulating for a while in the fashion sphere, given her background with prestigious houses like Hermès and Givenchy or her work on leather accessories at Patou. Her innovative approach has earned her numerous awards, including the Artagon Prize in 2018, the Public Prize at the Hyères Festival in 2019 and the title of 'Accessories Designer of the Year' at the Belgian Fashion Awards in 2023. On June 30, 2025, the nominees will present their projects to the jury, who are to then select the 2025 winners based on their creative and business potential. This evaluation will be followed by a cocktail reception in the gardens of the Palais Royal, next to the Ministry of Culture. This article was translated to English using an AI tool. FashionUnited uses AI language tools to speed up translating (news) articles and proofread the translations to improve the end result. This saves our human journalists time they can spend doing research and writing original articles. Articles translated with the help of AI are checked and edited by a human desk editor prior to going online. If you have questions or comments about this process email us at info@
The Guardian
18 hours ago
- Business
- The Guardian
Over a barrel: lack of sugar throws Cuba's rum industry into crisis
It's a crisis that would have sent a shiver down Ernest Hemingway's drinking arm. Cuba's communist government is struggling to process enough sugar to make the rum for his beloved mojitos and daiquiris. As summer rains bring the Caribbean island's 2025 harvest to an end, a recent analysis by Reuters suggests that Cuba's state-run monopoly, Azcuba, is likely to produce just 165,000 metric tonnes of sugar this year. That compares with harvests of 8m in the late 1980s. Michael Bustamante, chair of Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami, described the situation as 'dismal'. 'You have to go back to the 19th century to find numbers this low,' he said. Cuba is in the grip of an all-encompassing economic crisis, and for the past few years has been importing sugar to feed its people, but rum producers do not have the luxury of importing. 'The regulations provide that all the liquids have to come from within the country,' an industry executive said, speaking anonymously. It is particularly worrying because the island's rum industry has been a rare bright spot in its economy. Big international luxury brands are involved, battling each other in world markets with distinctive Cuban spirits. Diageo, LVMH and Pernod Ricard all have ventures with the government in Havana, often involving tortuous legal structures to placate OFAC, the US Office of Foreign Assets Control, which polices Washington's six-decade-plus trade embargo against the island. These companies – and a small British/Norwegian upstart called the Island Rum Company – have invested heavily in their respective brands: Ron Santiago, Eminente, Havana Club and Black Tears. Now there are concerns about their prospects. 'It is threatened,' said the executive. Rum as we know it was invented in Cuba in 1862 when a shopkeeper in the coastal city of Santiago thought he could do better than the rot gut then produced in pot stills on the country's plantations worked by enslaved people. His name was Facundo Bacardí. He began using column stills to distill molasses, a byproduct of sugar refining, selecting the aguardiente liquor on the edge of the pure alcohol, before ageing it in oak. His family, and the rum they produced, became the most famous in Cuba, until they were forced out in the Castro brothers' 1959 revolution. The Castros wanted Cuba to be financially independent of other countries, a never-ending issue for the island, and sugar was at the heart of their plans. In 1970, they mobilised 500,000 volunteers to create a 10m-tonne harvest. The effort fell short, but at least until the late 1980s Cuba produced around 8m tonnes a year. There was always a lack of investment in the machinery, though, which the government blames on the US embargo. Now the 133 mills at the time of the revolution have been reduced to 14, and only six are reportedly still operating. 'The sugar production numbers have been steadily decreasing for the better part of 20 years, but particularly over the last five,' said Bustamante. 'I think it's just as clear a signal as you can get over the dire straits of the economy overall.' The Enrique Varona sugar mill is in the settlement of Falla, around halfway along the island's length. On a recent visit, the workers looked exhausted as they lathed a heavy bit of metal in the hope of keeping the great mill running. In contrast, Pernod Ricard's distillery south of Havana is modern and slick. The French drinks company was the first of the big foreign operations to arrive, doing a deal with Corporación Cuba Ron, the state producer, in 1993. In return for an agreement not to allow other competitors in for 20 years, it took over the Havana Club brand, building sales from 300,000 cases to over 4m. 'They made a huge investment in a moment in which no one had the guts to invest in Cuba,' said Luca Cesarano, who until recently ran the rival brand of Ron Santiago. With the end of that agreement in 2013, others such as Diageo arrived. Unlike Pernod Ricard, they were not distilling themselves, but employing rum makers – known as maestros – to make specific spirits in Cuba's state distilleries. They were also using historic collections of rum that the maestros had for years been storing in oak barrels across the country, even as the roofs of their bodegas grew full of holes. These high-end products have fed an international resurgence in rum. LVMH, the luxury powerhouse, arrived to make Eminente, creating the Hotel Eminente in Paris to promote it. The upstart Island Rum Company has found a strong following in Cuba and abroad by associating itself with young Cuban musicians (its Black Tears brand takes its name from a Cuban song, Lagrimas Negras. But with the supply of molasses drying up, all this work is threatened. 'I think the fourth quarter will be particularly tough,' said the executive. 'There won't be any alcohol.'
Irish Times
a day ago
- Business
- Irish Times
Truth Social diplomacy, a shock court ruling and fashion magnate advice: A week inside the EU-US tariff talks
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen is not short of advice about how to handle Donald Trump. Bernard Arnault, founder and chief executive of French luxury brand giant LVMH, which owns Louis Vuitton, Moët Hennessy and Dior, privately chipped in with his opinion in recent days. The French businessman sat down with Ms von der Leyen late last week, the day before the US president threw European Union-US negotiations into another tailspin, by threatening to introduce blanket 50 per cent tariffs on June 1st. Mr Trump was later persuaded to push his sudden deadline out to July 9th , the date an original 90-day pause on the higher rates of his 'liberation day' tariffs was due to end. READ MORE Mr Arnault, who runs one of Europe's biggest companies, met Ms von der Leyen in the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels to talk about how to avert a transatlantic trade war. The commission, the European Union's (EU) executive branch that sets the bloc's trade policy, has been making little progress in talks with the Trump administration. [ US federal court blocks Trump from imposing sweeping tariffs Opens in new window ] The LVMH executive told Ms von der Leyen he was concerned about the uncertainty caused by Mr Trump's tariffs on global trade. Mr Arnault singled out the champagne wing of his empire, Moët & Chandon, during the discussion. In the May 22nd meeting, the details of which have not been reported before, Mr Arnault stressed the need to reach a deal on tariffs with Mr Trump. That is easier said than done. Ford Chief Lisa Brankin on accelerating the switch to EVs Listen | 41:35 For the last two months European businesses have been facing 10 per cent tariffs, which are import taxes, when selling goods into the US. Cars and steel products sold from the EU to the US have been subject to 25 per cent levies. The threat of across-the-board tariffs of 20 per cent, or even 50 per cent, if negotiations failed, has caused growing alarm across European industries. Separate duties targeting pharmaceutical imports are being considered, which would be a big economic blow to Ireland. But the New York-based Court of International Trade on Wednesday struck down Mr Trump's sweeping 'liberation day' tariffs, ruling these were not legal. The US administration has said it will appeal. 'It's a very significant ruling by the court. It gives you some hope that the rule of law still applies in the United States. Let's see what happens,' said Ignacio Garcia Bercero, who was the commission's chief negotiator on an EU-US trade deal abandoned in 2016. Current talks should pivot to focus on steel, aluminium and automobile tariffs, which are not affected by the ruling, the former senior official told The Irish Times. Negotiators had been racing to hammer out a deal with Mr Trump and head off the worst of his damaging trade levies before July 9th. The court ruling may buy the EU side more time. Sources in Dublin and in Brussels are optimistic the US president ultimately wants an agreement, despite the distance between negotiating positions at the moment. [ Court tariffs bombshell should inspire trading partners to defy Trump ] Mr Trump's post on Truth Social threatening 50 per cent tariffs took people by surprise last Friday, even if it was quickly walked back. 'It's all very volatile,' one Government source said. The shopping list of demands put forward by the White House at one point or another is long. It includes the EU rolling back tech regulations, lowering food safety standards that bar US chlorine-washed chicken and hormone-treated beef and scrapping digital services taxes in France and other countries. Mr Trump has also criticised value-added tax (VAT) charged on goods and services. Working out what is negotiating bluster and what the US side is genuinely interested in has been difficult. 'Don't ask me to predict what a final deal will look like,' one commission official said. The EU has offered to buy more US soybeans and liquefied natural gas (LNG) and to make it easier for the US to sell fish and lobster to the EU and for both sides to drop pre-Trump tariffs on industrial goods to zero. Some easing or tweaks to EU laws have reportedly been mentioned as another possible concession, but a rollback of online guardrails or food safety standards is a red line the commission won't cross. Before the New York court ruling there was a growing expectation the EU would have to stomach some baseline level of US tariffs, likely to be the global 10 per cent rate. Irish businesses were concerned about a no-deal scenario that would leave exports, such as Jameson whiskey or Kerrygold butter, facing a 20 per cent tariff. Irish products would then be sitting on a US supermarket shelf beside Scotch whiskey or a UK butter brand subject to a lower 10 per cent levy. Ms von der Leyen's top adviser, Bjoern Seibert, is right at the heart of the EU's response, directing the strategy behind the scenes. It is understood many of the decisions made inside the commission on this flow through him. He briefed representatives from the 27 EU states at the start of this week. The influential adviser suggested a clearer picture of what the US wanted in a deal was starting to emerge, two people said. Exact details of the ongoing negotiations are being kept under wraps. EU trade commissioner Maros Šefčovič and US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick had planned to focus their discussions on key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, cars, steel and computer chips. The pair speak on the phone regularly and have met several times. Other contested points were being discussed by officials. A delegation of commission trade staff is scheduled to travel to the US next week for talks. The two sides have been exchanging papers setting out their positions, something seen as a forerunner to intensive negotiations taking place in June. The commission has a set of retaliatory tariffs ready to go, if talks stall. These tariffs on US soybeans, Harley-Davidson motorbikes, oranges, steel and other products were paused until mid-July to signal to the US that Europe wanted to talk. A second, larger package of counter-tariffs under consideration would hit US aircraft manufacturers, bourbon whiskey, the automobile industry and many other sectors. 'You need to have them ready ... You keep the gun on the table,' one EU official said of the measures. [ Tariff threat undermines State's ability to deliver economic forecasts, says Donohoe Opens in new window ] The European aviation industry previously warned the commission against targeting Boeing and other US manufacturers, correspondence shows. In an April 14th letter to Mr Šefčovič, Airlines for Europe, which counts Ryanair as a member, said import duties would have a 'severe impact' on European airlines. Companies had placed 'significant' orders for US-made aircraft that they could not cancel, the correspondence seen by The Irish Times said. The Government has objected to the inclusion of US bourbon, civil aircraft and medical devices on the commission's tariff list, which will be finalised next month. EU officials have been drawing up a contingency plan to hit the US even harder, should negotiations collapse and steep tariffs kick in. This would focus on services, rather than goods and products. One option is the EU's anti-coercion instrument (ACI), which has been dubbed the 'big bazooka'. This would allow the bloc to put a levy on US tech giants' digital ad revenues in Europe and restrict US firms from bidding on public contracts in the EU. The Government here is fiercely opposed to tech multinationals being dragged into the thick of the tariff dispute, given the number of those US companies with bases in Dublin. It is understood some commission officials believe there is a way to put tariffs on services without having to resort to the bazooka, which requires a months-long investigation first to confirm the EU is facing economic coercion. The federal trade court ruling has certainly strengthened the EU's hand in negotiations. However, if Mr Trump's blanket measures remain blocked, he may be more likely to pursue tariffs on targeted industries. Pharma could be top of the list. A few weeks back a senior commission official said jokingly that if the EU landed a deal in July to suspend all US tariffs, he would head off on a holiday for the rest of the month, plus August. It's fair to say nobody is booking flights or hotels just yet.
