Ukraine's farmers could decide Poland's election

Telegraph

4 days ago

Karol Nawrocki, the Right-wing candidate in Poland's presidential elections, is having a rough campaign.
Over the past few weeks, he has been accused of waging street wars as a football hooligan, consorting with neo-Nazis and setting up clients with prostitutes when he worked as a hotel security guard.
It is a chequered past, which, you might think, would make most Polish conservatives blush. But if anything, the snowstorm of sleaze only seems to have deepened support for Mr Nawrocki, a nationalist historian, among his populist base.
'He's being attacked right now, but none of it is true, he is a good person,' Czesława, an 80-year-old vegetable farmer, told The Telegraph as she bagged up potatoes and onions at her market stall in northern Warsaw.
The string of lurid scandals reported by Polish media, over which Mr Nawrocki has threatened legal action, will do no harm to Poland's reputation on the world stage, she insists.
'He will be great for everybody because he is a great person. He will be a good representative for Poland abroad and for Polish people, because he won't let the migrants in.'
Voters are heading to the polls on June 1 to elect a new president who could seal the fate of their centrist coalition government.
Rafał Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw and preferred candidate of prime minister Donald Tusk, is competing in a run-off against Mr Nawrocki, a Trump-esque eurosceptic conservative.
While the role is largely ceremonial, Polish presidents can veto or delay legislation, meaning that a win for Mr Trzaskowski will allow the Tusk government to push ahead with liberal reforms on abortion laws and civil partnerships.
But if Mr Nawrocki emerges as the victor, Mr Tusk will find it difficult, if not impossible, to deliver some of his flagship policies – and some experts say it could even bring down the government.
Opinion polls show the two candidates to be neck-and-neck, with one recent survey putting Mr Trzaskowski in the lead at 47 per cent, just one percentage point in front of Mr Nawrocki.
Poland's role in the EU has been a key issue, along with mass migration, and the economic track record of the Tusk-led coalition, with Mr Nawrocki warning that the government is ceding too much power to Brussels.
The election is also being keenly fought over social issues, with Mr Trzaskowski vowing that a victory for his centrist Civic Platform party will allow it to liberalise Polish abortion laws, some of the toughest in Europe.
And while there remains widespread public support for Kyiv, the humble Ukrainian farmer has become an unlikely bête noire (black mirror) in this election campaign.
After Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the European Union lifted trade restrictions on Ukrainian produce which – according to some Polish farmers – is now undercutting them.
'Poland is a great country, a self-sufficient country, and we don't need Ukrainian goods here,' says Czesława, who was drawn to Mr Nawrocki because he has vowed to adopt a tougher stance than Mr Tusk on Ukrainian farmers' access to the Polish market. 'We should be supporting our own goods and Ukrainians should export elsewhere.'
Bogusław, 79, who is buying strawberries from another stall, chimes in as well. 'The people voting for Trzaskowski are so stupid, he's going to sell us out completely,' he says. 'Polish farming will be non-existent, he'll agree to anything. The EU will start importing [produce] from North African countries where everything is cheap.'
Polish analysts say this election will be of 'crucial significance' for Poland, as it will hugely influence the tone and substance of the country's relationship with the European Union.
'If Nawrocki wins, there will be a more adversarial relationship with the EU,' said Jacek Kucharczyk, an expert at Poland's Institute of Public Affairs.
'He is more eurosceptic than his predecessor, Andrzej Duda, and has already made a number of statements basically questioning the sense of Polish membership. I think it would become much more difficult for the EU to manage Poland if he wins.'
Aleks Szczerbiak, a Polish politics expert and professor at Sussex University, said that while Mr Nawrocki was firmly eurosceptic, he has not yet reached 'the point of wanting to leave the EU...he wants to defend national interests and look at alternative power structures.'
'He believes Poles have an overwhelming interest in weakening Russia and helping Ukraine to win the war, but also feels Poland needs to be more assertive in standing up for interests where this is a clash with Poland, like access to agricultural products,' he added.
That eurosceptic, populist streak has caught the eye of the Trump Administration. This week, Kristi Noem, president Trump's homeland security secretary, endorsed Mr Nawrocki as 'the right leader' who will 'protect and defend' Poland.
Standing in central Warsaw, and handing out leaflets endorsing Mr Nawrocki – who is backed by the right-wing Law and Justice party – campaigner Oliwia Kasztelewicz, 25, also cites concerns about the creeping powers of Brussels.
'Germany and France want to have full control over the European Union,' she says, and feels scornful towards the idea of Mr Tusk having a cosy relationship with other EU leaders.
'Our prime minister [Mr Tusk] is not their friend, he is more like someone who does what they want.'
But other young voters feel that scandal-ridden Mr Nawrocki would be an appalling ambassador for Poland. 'The president needs to be someone who can represent us and not be involved in scandals,' says Gosia, 20.
'Abortion is also an important issue,' she adds, referring to draconian laws in Poland which forbid terminations even in cases involving fatal foetal defects. 'We want to see liberalisation of those laws.'
Mr Tusk promised to pass his abortion reforms in his first 100 days during the 2023 election campaign, but they have still not materialised. This is partly because the outgoing Right-wing Law and Justice party president, Mr Duda, wielded a veto over them. But critics point out that Mr Tusk also lacked the required numbers in parliament to pass them.
'I'm not super interested in politics, but Nawrocki is too conservative for me,' says Nikola, 18. 'I will probably vote for the same person as my parents [for Trzaskowski].'
Katarzyna Maciejewska, 40, is also weary of the constant stream of sleaze allegations appearing in Polish news articles. They include claims that Mr Nawrocki used to source prostitutes for guests at a luxury hotel where he worked as a security guard, which he strongly denies.
Mr Nawrocki has also been accused of having links to gangsters and neo-Nazis, and taking part in organised street brawls in his youth as a football hooligan. He has not denied the football hooligan allegations and has suggested his links to far-Right extremists stem from his work as a history lecturer in prisons.
'I'm in shock, he is totally stained by these scandals,' Ms Maciejewska adds. 'I am voting more and more for pro-European parties. I was raised in Belarus, so the idea that my vote counts is kind of a pleasant surprise for me.'
Inside the old Civic Platform offices of Mr Tusk himself, which now serve as the party's youth wing, a dozen activists have set up a war room where they are recording and publishing a digital campaign video every hour.
'I got involved because of women's rights,' says Stanisław Mikołajczuk, 21, taking a quick break from uploading the punchy videos to Instagram and Tiktok.
'In 2020 there was a change to abortion law that made abortion in Poland nearly impossible. We need a president who will sign it [the reforms].'
With the two candidates neck-and-neck in the polls, his youthful team is braced for an extremely tense election night, with the results set to trickle in through the early hours and well into the next morning.
'We are seeing really uncertain times in Poland,' he says, before heading back into the recording room to make more campaign videos. 'The future of our country is at stake.'