Leadership transition for S'pore complete with strong mandate from GE2025
SINGAPORE - The strong mandate Singaporeans gave Prime Minister Lawrence Wong on May 3 settles a leadership succession that began over a decade ago, said political analysts.
The PAP's 65.57 per cent national vote share is also an endorsement of PM Wong's call to for voters to return his experienced ministers while injecting new blood into government, and all eyes are now on who will be in Cabinet, they added.
'The process of political succession from the third prime minister to the fourth prime minister of Singapore - that spanned from 2011 from (Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong's) first mention of the intent to 2025 - is indeed now complete,' said Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) senior research fellow Gillian Koh.
Observers such as political scientist Walid Jumblatt Abdullah said how Singaporeans voted means PM Wong has wide latitude to shape his Cabinet: not only was the PAP's result improved from the last election, he improved his vote share in his home turf of Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC, while Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong prevailed in a hot contest in Punggol GRC.
'It is as resounding a victory as it could be for a new Prime Minister, ' said Prof Walid, who is with the Nanyang Technological University. 'It strengthens his position both in the country and the party.'
Given that the PAP argued during the campaign that Singapore faces a troubled external environment, it now has to put together Singapore's leadership team 'post-haste', said Dr Koh. This is especially so as several key ministers will be retiring, such as DPM Heng Swee Keat, SM Teo Chee Hean and Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen.
DPM Gan looks set to continue as PM Wong's right hand man and to remain in charge of the Singapore Economic Resilience Taskforce, given that this was the pitch that was repeatedly made to voters, she added.
All eyes will instead be on who the other DPM will be from the 4G cohort of ministers, and observers said the shortlist includes Education Minister Chan Chun Sing, Health Minister Ong Ye Kung and Minister for National Development Desmond Lee.
Two other heavyweight portfolios will also be closely watched: that of defence, and finance.
IPS Social Lab research fellow Teo Kay Key said the Cabinet has to be firmed up ahead of the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, which is scheduled from May 30 to June 1.
Singapore's defence minister is the host and convenor of Asia's premier security summit, and has traditionally been a plenary speaker at the event. The summit is also where Dr Ng meets his counterparts from around the world bilaterally, as well as in larger groups such as under the auspices of the Five Power Defence Arrangements.
Dr Koh said Mr Chan, a former Chief of Army, is a likely candidate for this post given his experience and knowledge of Singapore's defence philosophy, policies, strategies and his international networks.
Independent political observer Felix Tan said PM Wong, who is currently double-hatting as Finance Minister, may also want to pass this heavyweight portfolio to another member of his team. The candidates include Mr Chee Hong Tat, who is currently Minister for Transport and Second Minister for Finance.
The upcoming Cabinet reshuffle is likely be considerable given the PAP's strong mandate, and could include the promotion of some next-generation leaders to political office, he added.
In May 2024, then-DPM Wong had said that he planned to rotate the 4G ministers to different portfolios and give them wider exposure and experience after the general election.
The PAP fielded 32 new candidates for GE2025, the largest batch of fresh faces in decades, as PM Wong asked voters to give him the best team to steer Singapore through the storms ahead.
During the hustings, he also highlighted how some of the newcomers could grow into larger leadership roles, and name-dropped Mr David Neo from Tampines GRC, Mr Dinesh Vasu Dash in East Coast GRC, and Mr Jeffrey Siow in Chua Chu Kang GRC.
Mr Neo, 48, was outgoing army chief; Mr Dinesh, 50, was formerly chief executive at the Agency for Integrated Care; and Mr Siow, 46, was second permanent secretary for trade and industry and manpower and a previous principal private secretary to then-PM Lee Hsien Loong.
Others whom the PAP leadership has spotlighted as potential office holders are former Nominated MP Syed Harun Alhabsyi and Ms Goh Hanyan, who was previously a director at the Ministry of Digital Development and Information.
Some of them could be appointed Senior Parliamentary Secretary or Minister of State. There are also serving Senior Ministers of State who could be promoted to full ministers, said IPS Social Lab adjunct principal research fellow Tan Ern Ser.
The youngest Senior Ministers of State are Mr Tan Kiat How, 48, who currently has the National Development and Communications and Information portfolios; Ms Low Yen Ling, 50, who has the Culture, Community and Youth and Trade and Industry portfolios; and Ms Sim Ann, 50, who has the National Development and Foreign Affairs portfolios.
He added: 'Perhaps SM Lee may be upgraded to Minister Mentor, and the 4G would be fully in charge.'
Dr Koh said there could also be changes to who helms the Ministry of Law and Ministry of Home Affairs, which are both currently under Mr K. Shanmugam, and whether that will have a knock-on effect on Mr Edwin Tong's role in Cabinet.
Mr Tong has concurrently been Minister for Culture, Community and Youth and Second Minister for Law since 2020.
SMU's Prof Tan said the election outcome means PM Wong and his team are well-placed to manage the pace of political change, even as the desire for a more balanced political system grows.
'The pace and tone of change will be watched as a measure of the confidence and authority (PM) Wong brings to his leadership,' he said. 'In other words, how he governs will matter immensely.'
Chin Soo Fang is senior correspondent at The Straits Times covering topics such as community, politics, social issues, consumer, culture and heritage.
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