Analyst: Malaysia leans on quiet engagement to seek favourable tariffs revision

New Straits Times

2 days ago

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia remains locked in quiet engagement and possibly embracing a deliberate positioning with the United States (US) to lower the 25 per cent tariffs on its exports to the American markets as the Aug 1 deadline approaches.
Unlike other Asean countries, which have struck quick deals with Washington, SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes said Malaysia's more measured response to the impending US tariffs likely reflects deliberate positioning rather than passivity.
He said that contrary to countries pursuing headline-grabbing diplomacy, Malaysia often leans on quiet engagement and multilateral cooperation to navigate complex trade tensions.
With the Aug 1 deadline nearing, exporters and investors are keeping a close watch on the outcome of these negotiations, which would reshape the cost dynamics of doing business between Malaysia and its third-largest trading partner.
While regional peers such as Indonesia and Vietnam have already struck last-minute deals to reduce their tariffs to 19 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively, Malaysia is still seeking favourable terms that safeguard local industries without compromising national interests.
The proposed tariffs — a revival of protectionist measures introduced during President Donald Trump's first term — have stirred fresh uncertainties across Southeast Asia, where economies are deeply embedded in global supply chains.
Investment, Trade and Industry Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Abdul Aziz has described the ongoing talks with the US as progressing well, with emphasis on striking a balanced outcome.
"This low-profile approach fits with Malaysia's broader strategy, namely maintaining economic openness, avoiding entanglement in great power rivalries, and preserving regional alignment within Asean.
"By staying restrained, Malaysia may be aiming to protect its long-term credibility as a stable, rules-based partner," said Innes.
That said, he cautioned that the exposure is real as Malaysia's export economy is heavily tilted toward electrical and electronic goods, precision machinery, and intermediate components, many of which plug directly into US-bound supply chains.
A 25 per cent tariff could disrupt flows, especially in semiconductors, sensors, and specialised modules that are difficult to reroute, he said.
"The pain would be felt most in hubs like Penang, where small and medium enterprises and multinationals are deeply intertwined.
"While some firms could shift volumes elsewhere, the high-tech nature of these exports makes substitution harder than it sounds," said Innes.
The absence of a bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the US limits Malaysia's negotiating toolkit, but Innes believed it doesn't shut the door entirely.
He pointed out that Malaysia remained strategically important to US firms seeking reliable, non-China supply bases, which provides leverage particularly if Malaysia targets exemptions for specific sectors tied to US industrial or security interests, such as chip packaging or electric vehicle components.
While countries like Indonesia have dangled major purchases to secure tariff relief, Malaysia's options are different, Innes said.
"It is unlikely to buy its way into a deal with big-ticket orders. Instead, it can offer alignment, which is co-investment opportunities in green tech, digital infrastructure, or rare-earth refining," he said.
According to Innes, these would support Malaysia's industrial roadmap while offering Washington something it values: supply chain resilience and diversification, but from a policy standpoint, the trade-off is nuanced.
He noted that offering short-term concessions or budget support might help shield critical sectors from long-term dislocation.
"But any deal must be carefully structured. It should channel benefits beyond just large exporters towards local suppliers, workers, and tech development ecosystems," said Innes, highlighting that if no deal is reached, the impact may not be catastrophic at a national level, but could be meaningful in key sectors.
"Export growth could slow, investment plans may be paused, and employment could tighten in affected industries.
The greater risk is longer-term: losing ground in a global supply chain reshuffle that increasingly rewards agility and alignment. Malaysia still has room to move, but the window is closing," he added.
Meanwhile, Moody's Analytics economist Denise Cheok said Malaysia's economic exposure to the US through value-added trade is more significant than headline export figures suggest.
Citing calculations based on OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA) data, Cheok said that Malaysian domestic value added embedded in foreign final demand to the US accounted for slightly over 5.0 per cent of the country's gross domestic product.
She noted that this includes not only direct exports of final goods but also intermediate components that eventually reach the American consumers and provide a more comprehensive measure than gross exports alone.
"This compares to over 9.0 per cent of GDP for Singapore, which is highly trade-exposed, and about 2.0 per cent of GDP for Indonesia, which is more domestically focused and not as reliant on exports to the US," Cheok said.
If the full 25 per cent tariff is imposed without any rerouting of supply chains, Cheok estimates the impact could shave up to 2.6 per cent off Malaysia's GDP in 2025, with the effects likely to be uneven across sectors.
"The key manufacturing sector is likely to be hit hard — not only by the direct impact of the tariffs but also by global supply chain disruptions caused by the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies," she said.
Cheok added that Malaysia, like many of its Southeast Asian peers, relies heavily on exports as part of its growth model, and structural changes to this would be difficult, even in the long term.
"The fractured relationship between the US and its trading partners will likely continue beyond the next three years, and Malaysia should continue strengthening its trade relations with other economies, including Asean, as a counterbalance to this," she said. — BERNAMA