MLB Probable Starters Plus Underdog Winners, 6/17
MLB Probable Starters Plus Underdog Winners, 6/17 originally appeared on Athlon Sports.
"Give me six hours to chop down a tree, I'll spend the first four sharpening the axe." Part of the struggle betting baseball on a daily basis comes down to handling the massive amount of subsequent data. Before you start opening 1,000 different Chrome tabs chasing data, get all your ducks in a row first.
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Monday, June 17th, 2025
6:10pm EST — O/U 8.5
PHI Jesus Luzardo: -204; 67.1% Implied Probability
MIA Cal Quantrill: +171; 36.9% Implied Probability
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6:40pm EST — O/U 8.5
PIT Bailey Falter: +171; 36.9% Implied Probability
DET Casey Mize: -204; 67.1% Implied Probability
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6:45pm EST — O/U 9.5
COL Antonio Senzatela: +168; 37.3% Implied Probability
WSH Mike Soroka: -200; 66.7% Implied Probability
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7:05pm EST — O/U 9.5
LAA Kyle Hendricks: +212; 32.1% Implied Probability
NYY Will Warren: -256; 71.9% Implied Probability
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7:07pm EST — O/U 8.5
ARI Brandon Pfaadt: +106; 48.5% Implied Probability
TOR Chris Bassitt: -125; 55.6% Implied Probability
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7:10pm EST — O/U 8.5
MIN David Festa: +106; 48.5% Implied Probability
CIN Andrew Abbott: -125; 55.6% Implied Probability
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7:15pm EST — O/U 8.5
NYM David Peterson: +113; 46.9% Implied Probability
ATL Spencer Schwellenbach: -133; 57.1% Implied Probability
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7:35pm EST — O/U 9.5
BAL Dean Kremer: +104; 49.0% Implied Probability
TB Zack Littell: -122; 55.0% Implied Probability
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7:40pm EST — O/U 8.5
STL Matthew Liberatore: -152; 60.3% Implied Probability
CHW Shane Smith: +129; 43.7% Implied Probability
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8:05pm EST — O/U 8.5
MIL Chad Patrick: +129; 43.7% Implied Probability
CHC Ben Brown: -159; 61.4% Implied Probability
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8:05pm EST — O/U 8.5
KC Seth Lugo: +114; 46.7% Implied Probability
TEX Jack Leiter: -133; 57.1% Implied Probability
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9:40pm EST — O/U 7.5
BOS Walker Buehler: +151; 39.8% Implied Probability
SEA Bryan Woo: -179; 64.2% Implied Probability
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9:45pm EST — O/U 7.5
CLE Slade Cecconi: +140; 41.7% Implied Probability
SF Robbie Ray: -167; 62.5% Implied Probability
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10:05pm EST — O/U 10.5
HOU Jason Alexander: -143; 58.8% Implied Probability
ATH JP Sears: +121; 45.2% Implied Probability
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10:10pm EST — O/U 9.5
SD Randy Vasquez: +182; 35.5% Implied Probability
LAD Matt Sauer: -217; 68.5% Implied Probability
LAGHEZZA'S LEANS:
My first read usually comes down to one thing: underdogs at plus odds with a 50/50 chance to win outright — Today's are NYM, BAL, CHW, MIL, and KC. Remember, baseball's inherently variant and backing dogs greatly lowers the necessary win/loss record to profit long-term.
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This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 17, 2025, where it first appeared.
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New York Times
7 minutes ago
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'I don't think it's going to be too difficult for him,' Giants manager Bob Melvin said. 'More than anything, the fact he hasn't played in the field this year, we have to take our time working him in. It's a new position. We'll take it day to day.' Devers is not above reproach for refusing to do the same for the Red Sox, no matter how much he believes they slighted him. But here's rooting for this trade to work out for Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey, and not simply because he appears to have a better feel for players than Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. Or even his predecessor, Farhan Zaidi, who made the same mistake with Brandon Crawford that Breslow did with Devers, failing to inform his incumbent shortstop that he was agreeing to terms with another, Carlos Correa. This deal is a referendum on teams that define players more as 'dudes' – Posey's word – than 'assets.' A referendum on all the other fancy terms executives use, from flexibility to sustainability to efficiency, while hedging their bets and operating out of fear. A referendum on absorbing contracts that might not age well to do what every team should be trying to do – win. Devers' remaining $255 million or so over the next eight-plus years isn't as onerous as it might appear. Not when accounting for the approximately $32 million the Giants offloaded in the deal by including right-hander Jordan Hicks. And not when Vladimir Guerrero just signed a 14-year, $500 million extension that will begin next season when he is 27, one year younger than Devers is now. Guerrero's career OPS+ is 136. Devers' is 129. Advertisement Yet, the opinion of a number of rival executives, as related by The Athletic's Britt Ghiroli, is that the Red Sox all but pulled a fast one on the Giants. 'Freeing up $250 million AND getting some nice young talent in return is a great deal for them in a vacuum,' one exec said. 'In a few years I think this trade will be lauded,' another opined. Perhaps that is true. Perhaps Devers' questionable conditioning and lack of athleticism will cause him to decline faster than most. Perhaps two of the four players the Red Sox acquired, left-hander Kyle Harrison and 2024 first rounder James Tibbs III, will develop into a quality starting pitcher and productive outfielder, respectively. But once upon a time, before teams became obsessed with projections and modeling, the most effective way to evaluate a trade was by asking the question: Who got the best player in the deal? Without question, the best player in this deal is Devers, for this season and likely several beyond. And all those in the industry questioning Posey's bold move need to acknowledge that the Giants are operating in unique circumstances, not a vacuum. 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12 minutes ago
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