Has India really become Trump's top target in Asia?
called for a tough approach
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On trade, the only question was whether tariffs on Chinese goods would be more punitive and broad-based. There was also intense speculation about what the new administration would do if other countries –
particularly in Southeast Asia – became even bigger re-routing hubs for Chinese exports.
When it came to technology, it was almost a given that the next president would maintain export controls on advanced semiconductors to preserve the US economic and military edge in artificial intelligence (AI). In foreign affairs, support for
the security of Taiwan – which produces over 90 per cent of the world's most sophisticated chips – in the face of the People's Liberation Army's intensified posture around the island also seemed a near-certainty.
The wild card, however, was the transactional approach to policymaking often favoured by Donald Trump during his first term as president. Following his re-election, Trump appeared to be a China hawk, appointing
staunch critics of Beijing to top roles and raising tariffs on Chinese goods to
prohibitively high levels
Yet Trump's capriciousness, his
well-known admiration for Chinese President Xi Jinping and his administration's belated recognition of the strength of Beijing's retaliatory weapons – particularly new curbs on exports of
rare earths and magnets – have contributed to a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape since April.
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