Labour overseeing long-term surge in migrants

Yahoo

26-03-2025

The Labour Government will preside over a long-term surge in migrants as more of them remain in the UK, the fiscal watchdog has said.
The Office for Budget Responsibility has revised up its projections for net migration, which will settle at 340,000 by the end of the decade.
This is 15,000 higher than its estimates from October, after the Office for National Statistics significantly revised up its figures.
This is because more immigrants are choosing to stay in the UK, the OBR said.
It comes after net migration added a record 1.6 million people to the population in the two years to June 2024, leading the issue to once again become one of the biggest concerns for voters.
The OBR's analysis suggests that while the overall level of immigration is widely expected to fall in the coming years, fewer people than previously will leave the UK.
Jonathan Portes, an economics professor at King's College London, said much of the projected rise in immigrants staying long-term can be explained by students remaining in the UK to work and because more migrants have arrived alongside their spouses and children.
He said: 'A lot of it has to do with the graduate visa. That means more students stay on and then move on to other routes that lead to staying permanently, like permanent work visas.
'Of the people who have come on skilled work visas recently, a higher proportion than previously are bringing dependents. It's a reasonable assumption that people who bring their dependents are more likely to stay than people who come as individuals.'
Since Brexit, the biggest increase in immigration has come from people from outside the EU. These migrants are somewhat more likely to stay permanently in the UK although it varies significantly by nationality, Mr Portes said.
'It differs quite a lot between nationalities. For example, only a quite small proportion of Chinese students stay permanently, while a higher proportion of Indians, say, do so.'
The OBR said it may revise up estimates again of how much net migration has added to population growth in the UK, but this is not guaranteed to change its projections for the coming years.
Prof David Miles, from the OBR, said the short-term impact from higher net migration on headline growth would be 'almost certainly positive'.
However, it's difficult to say what they will mean for living standards across the economy, he warned.
Prof Miles said: 'It depends very much on who is coming.'
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