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CNBC
a day ago
- Business
- CNBC
Trump-Putin talks are already a 'triumph' for Moscow, its economy and markets
Talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. counterpart Donald Trump are still days away, but the two leaders' upcoming meeting to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine is already seen as a victory for the Kremlin, the Russian economy and global financial markets. The discussions are set to take place on Friday in Alaska. "This is already a big win for Putin to be invited for the first time since 2007 to meet with the U.S. president on American soil. Is a wonderful achievement, from his point of view, no conditions and the absence of Ukraine, the absence of any European representation. This is already a triumph," Richard Portes, head of the Economics faculty at the London Business School, told CNBC Monday. There are concerns that Ukraine could be forced to cede Russian-occupied territory to Moscow, and the mood is dour in Kyiv, whose officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have so far not been invited to attend the talks. Kyiv has said no deal about its future would be struck in its absence, and European leaders are pushing strongly for Ukraine's involvement. The U.S., for its part, has said its considering inviting Zelenskyy, NBC News reported. In the meantime, economists say the talks — which take place as Russia makes gains on the battlefield in southern and eastern Ukraine, with no ceasefire deal in sight — are already a win for Putin and his war-centered economy that is laboring under international sanctions and stubbornly high inflation of 9.4% in June. "[Putin] starts from a relatively strong position on the battlefield. They're advancing ...On the other hand, from the economic point of view, he starts from a weak position. The Russian economy is not in very good shape. They're running a significant fiscal deficit, partly because oil revenues are down very substantially, oil and gas [are down] because of the oil price. And ... this is a weak economy," Portes told CNBC's "Europe Early Edition." Coming into talks with a strong position in the battlefield, Russia is likely to want immediate sanctions relief as part of any ceasefire deal, as well as Ukrainian territorial concessions. The Kremlin has spied a rapprochement with Washington as an opportunity not only for an economic recovery, but investment. Russian Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov on Saturday stated that "the economic interests of our countries intersect in Alaska and the Arctic, and there are prospects for implementing large-scale and mutually beneficial projects," the Kremlin stated. Portes said that if Trump "had the patience and the willingness to apply sanctions properly, then waiting [to hold talks] would result in a very significant change in the balance of forces." As things stand, however, Trump has mulled but so far held off on increasing sanctions on Russia. Washington has instead threatened the Kremlin's remaining trading partners, such as India, with "secondary sanctions" and additional trade tariffs for continuing with purchases of Russian oil, which have funded Moscow's war machine. Asked whether Trump could press ahead with more punitive sanctions to push Putin toward a peace deal, Portes asked: "Can anyone predict what the President of the United States will do from one day to the next? It's very difficult." "The likelihood of an increase in sanctions pressure is significant, but ... given Trump's desire for a Nobel Prize, the the likelihood that Trump will increase sanctions at this stage. Does not look very high, but he could change his mind tomorrow," he said. Global financial markets reacted positively to the announcement on Friday that talks to end the war would take place imminently, with bourses in Europe and U.S. rising. Defense stocks in Europe fell on the news, however, as traders appeared to bet that peace could deter further investment pledged by NATO allies. The spot price of gold, seen as a safe haven in times of geopolitical and financial market stress, was down around 1% at $3,364 per ounce, as of 8a.m. London time on Monday. Shares of Germany's Rheinmetall were trading lower by almost 4% while Hensoldt declined by 1.5% and Renk fell 3.3% in early trades. Italy's Leonardo and France's Thales were also down by 1.9% and 1.7% respectively. Meanwhile, London-listed BAE Systems and Babcock also gave up gains from earlier in the day, down 1.1% and 1.3%, respectively around 9 a.m. London time. But Christopher Granville, managing director at TS Lombard, said that the talks could ultimately prove to be a "win-win for European defense stocks" and advised investors to "buy on that weakness." Granville said if the peace process fails, there would still be a need to replenish depleted arms inventories of U.S. and Europe, which "would be very good for orders and procurement for Rheinmetall and all the other European defense stocks." "Or if there is a peace agreement, what do we see? We see a very powerful Russian military which — although the words 'victory' and 'defeat' will be banded around and should probably not be used — has to an extent prevailed. That reality will force continued increase defense procurement by European governments, and it's also good for European defense stocks. Either way, it's a winner," Granville told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe." "The market, of course, has been discounting this some from time to time and as those [defense stock] names pull back a bit, you should buy on that weakness, in my opinion."
The Hindu
23-04-2025
- Entertainment
- The Hindu
Ivorian author GauZ', the writer of the invisible
Changing his name to GauZ' at the age of 15 was Armand Patrick Gbaka-Brédé's first real political act. 'You know, in France, Armand is a very sexy name,' says the Ivorian writer with a laugh. But, for him, it is also a name intrinsically linked to France's cultural imperialism that had eroded the customs, traditions, languages and societies of the people it colonised. 'Colonisation was not [just] about physical violence, about exploitation of resources. It is [also] about cultural invasion,' says the 54-year-old author, journalist and screenwriter, a speaker at the recent Kerala Literature Festival. 'The colonisation victory was to transform our culture.' Culture is a word GauZ' frequently uses, whether it is in relation to the richness of his own country or the violence wreaked by colonialism and now its surrogate, capitalism, which he thinks of as a sneaky system with no boundaries. 'For me, it is more brutal now. You don't know the frontiers of your opposition with the system,' says the author of several novels, which explore colonisation, immigration and identity — including Standing Heavy, Black Manoo, Portes (Doors) and Comrade Papa, pointing out that in a world shaped by a persistent want for more and more, 'we are in permanent contradiction. And living in contradiction is a great violence because you don't know who you are.' What counts is power Standing Heavy, his debut novel, which was shortlisted for the International Booker Prize in 2023, is a sharp, scathing satire of France's colonial legacy, race politics and the interrelatedness of colonialism and capitalism. 'We are always being colonised by something or some people. They call it soft power, but in the expressions of power, there is power. Soft doesn't count; what counts is power,' says GauZ'. The novel, initially published in French in 2014 before being translated into English by Frank Wynne and then republished in 2022, is told from the perspective of undocumented African security guards working in a Parisian shopping mall — people who are 'doubly invisible,' he says. 'Someone told me that you are the writer of the invisible, and I am OK with that. Is it not crazy to ignore a human being in a place you enter?' The book's title refers to both the security guard job that demands people to stand for their supper, so to speak, as well as to the heft of France's colonial legacy. 'People thanked me for writing it, telling me that now they actually saw the security; I think that is the greatest success of this book,' he says. Standing Heavy, crammed with perspicacious commentary and wry observations, takes an anthropological approach towards shoppers in retail spaces, thus subverting the traditional white gaze. According to him, for the last 400 years, the western world, which has constantly exerted power over other people, often sees itself as a paragon of civilisation. 'They are sure that things cannot change because they don't have the memory of lost civilisation.' But, in his opinion, for colonised people, colonialism was simply a new layer in their already culturally rich lives. 'We have their languages, and we know their classics. But we still have our storytelling: of the bush, of the Savannah. We still have our own cosmogony, our own anthropology, our own way of seeing the world.' Storytelling, therefore, can be a powerful tool in the fight against a dominant Eurocentric world vision. 'You cannot fight against this vision with ideology and politics. To change things and fight this system, you have to propose new imaginations, new science, new ways of thinking, new fictions,' he says. 'This was my first step towards inventing this new fiction: by describing them how they used to describe us.' The 'fiction' of immigration While Standing Heavy was first written nearly a decade ago, many of the questions it raises will always be relevant to humans, especially those around immigration policies, more pertinent now than ever before in the face of the ongoing crackdown on undocumented immigrants in the United States. 'The question of immigrants is a fiction served to western people because they are losing their stature and are afraid,' he says. 'I want to say to them, welcome to the real world. You did that to other people, and they didn't have a choice. So, you don't have a choice, too.' Also, as GauZ' reminds us, all humans originally come from Africa. 'We are big animals with long legs, high respiratory capacity, thermo-regulation and a brain. We are built to move, and nobody can stop that.'
Yahoo
26-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Labour overseeing long-term surge in migrants
The Labour Government will preside over a long-term surge in migrants as more of them remain in the UK, the fiscal watchdog has said. The Office for Budget Responsibility has revised up its projections for net migration, which will settle at 340,000 by the end of the decade. This is 15,000 higher than its estimates from October, after the Office for National Statistics significantly revised up its figures. This is because more immigrants are choosing to stay in the UK, the OBR said. It comes after net migration added a record 1.6 million people to the population in the two years to June 2024, leading the issue to once again become one of the biggest concerns for voters. The OBR's analysis suggests that while the overall level of immigration is widely expected to fall in the coming years, fewer people than previously will leave the UK. Jonathan Portes, an economics professor at King's College London, said much of the projected rise in immigrants staying long-term can be explained by students remaining in the UK to work and because more migrants have arrived alongside their spouses and children. He said: 'A lot of it has to do with the graduate visa. That means more students stay on and then move on to other routes that lead to staying permanently, like permanent work visas. 'Of the people who have come on skilled work visas recently, a higher proportion than previously are bringing dependents. It's a reasonable assumption that people who bring their dependents are more likely to stay than people who come as individuals.' Since Brexit, the biggest increase in immigration has come from people from outside the EU. These migrants are somewhat more likely to stay permanently in the UK although it varies significantly by nationality, Mr Portes said. 'It differs quite a lot between nationalities. For example, only a quite small proportion of Chinese students stay permanently, while a higher proportion of Indians, say, do so.' The OBR said it may revise up estimates again of how much net migration has added to population growth in the UK, but this is not guaranteed to change its projections for the coming years. Prof David Miles, from the OBR, said the short-term impact from higher net migration on headline growth would be 'almost certainly positive'. However, it's difficult to say what they will mean for living standards across the economy, he warned. Prof Miles said: 'It depends very much on who is coming.' Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Telegraph
26-03-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
Labour overseeing long-term surge in migrants
The Labour Government will preside over a long-term surge in migrants as more of them remain in the UK, the fiscal watchdog has said. The Office for Budget Responsibility has revised up its projections for net migration, which will settle at 340,000 by the end of the decade. This is 15,000 higher than its estimates from October, after the Office for National Statistics significantly revised up its figures. This is because more immigrants are choosing to stay in the UK, the OBR said. It comes after net migration added a record 1.6 million people to the population in the two years to June 2024, leading the issue to once again become one of the biggest concerns for voters. The OBR's analysis suggests that while the overall level of immigration is widely expected to fall in the coming years, fewer people than previously will leave the UK. 'More students stay put' Jonathan Portes, an economics professor at King's College London, said much of the projected rise in immigrants staying long-term can be explained by students remaining in the UK to work and because more migrants have arrived alongside their spouses and children. He said: 'A lot of it has to do with the graduate visa. That means more students stay on and then move on to other routes that lead to staying permanently, like permanent work visas. 'Of the people who have come on skilled work visas recently, a higher proportion than previously are bringing dependents. It's a reasonable assumption that people who bring their dependents are more likely to stay than people who come as individuals.' Since Brexit, the biggest increase in immigration has come from people from outside the EU. These migrants are somewhat more likely to stay permanently in the UK although it varies significantly by nationality, Mr Portes said. 'It differs quite a lot between nationalities. For example, only a quite small proportion of Chinese students stay permanently, while a higher proportion of Indians, say, do so.'
