Trump-Putin talks are already a 'triumph' for Moscow, its economy and markets
The discussions are set to take place on Friday in Alaska.
"This is already a big win for Putin to be invited for the first time since 2007 to meet with the U.S. president on American soil. Is a wonderful achievement, from his point of view, no conditions and the absence of Ukraine, the absence of any European representation. This is already a triumph," Richard Portes, head of the Economics faculty at the London Business School, told CNBC Monday.
There are concerns that Ukraine could be forced to cede Russian-occupied territory to Moscow, and the mood is dour in Kyiv, whose officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have so far not been invited to attend the talks.
Kyiv has said no deal about its future would be struck in its absence, and European leaders are pushing strongly for Ukraine's involvement. The U.S., for its part, has said its considering inviting Zelenskyy, NBC News reported.
In the meantime, economists say the talks — which take place as Russia makes gains on the battlefield in southern and eastern Ukraine, with no ceasefire deal in sight — are already a win for Putin and his war-centered economy that is laboring under international sanctions and stubbornly high inflation of 9.4% in June.
"[Putin] starts from a relatively strong position on the battlefield. They're advancing ...On the other hand, from the economic point of view, he starts from a weak position. The Russian economy is not in very good shape. They're running a significant fiscal deficit, partly because oil revenues are down very substantially, oil and gas [are down] because of the oil price. And ... this is a weak economy," Portes told CNBC's "Europe Early Edition."
Coming into talks with a strong position in the battlefield, Russia is likely to want immediate sanctions relief as part of any ceasefire deal, as well as Ukrainian territorial concessions.
The Kremlin has spied a rapprochement with Washington as an opportunity not only for an economic recovery, but investment. Russian Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov on Saturday stated that "the economic interests of our countries intersect in Alaska and the Arctic, and there are prospects for implementing large-scale and mutually beneficial projects," the Kremlin stated.
Portes said that if Trump "had the patience and the willingness to apply sanctions properly, then waiting [to hold talks] would result in a very significant change in the balance of forces."
As things stand, however, Trump has mulled but so far held off on increasing sanctions on Russia. Washington has instead threatened the Kremlin's remaining trading partners, such as India, with "secondary sanctions" and additional trade tariffs for continuing with purchases of Russian oil, which have funded Moscow's war machine.
Asked whether Trump could press ahead with more punitive sanctions to push Putin toward a peace deal, Portes asked: "Can anyone predict what the President of the United States will do from one day to the next? It's very difficult."
"The likelihood of an increase in sanctions pressure is significant, but ... given Trump's desire for a Nobel Prize, the the likelihood that Trump will increase sanctions at this stage. Does not look very high, but he could change his mind tomorrow," he said.
Global financial markets reacted positively to the announcement on Friday that talks to end the war would take place imminently, with bourses in Europe and U.S. rising. Defense stocks in Europe fell on the news, however, as traders appeared to bet that peace could deter further investment pledged by NATO allies.
The spot price of gold, seen as a safe haven in times of geopolitical and financial market stress, was down around 1% at $3,364 per ounce, as of 8a.m. London time on Monday.
Shares of Germany's Rheinmetall were trading lower by almost 4% while Hensoldt declined by 1.5% and Renk fell 3.3% in early trades. Italy's Leonardo and France's Thales were also down by 1.9% and 1.7% respectively. Meanwhile, London-listed BAE Systems and Babcock also gave up gains from earlier in the day, down 1.1% and 1.3%, respectively around 9 a.m. London time.
But Christopher Granville, managing director at TS Lombard, said that the talks could ultimately prove to be a "win-win for European defense stocks" and advised investors to "buy on that weakness."
Granville said if the peace process fails, there would still be a need to replenish depleted arms inventories of U.S. and Europe, which "would be very good for orders and procurement for Rheinmetall and all the other European defense stocks."
"Or if there is a peace agreement, what do we see? We see a very powerful Russian military which — although the words 'victory' and 'defeat' will be banded around and should probably not be used — has to an extent prevailed. That reality will force continued increase defense procurement by European governments, and it's also good for European defense stocks. Either way, it's a winner," Granville told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe."
"The market, of course, has been discounting this some from time to time and as those [defense stock] names pull back a bit, you should buy on that weakness, in my opinion."
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Eater
13 minutes ago
- Eater
A New(ish)-to-the-Bay Style of Pizza Drops With the Reopening of This Italian Restaurant
After 16 years, Redwood City's Donato Enoteca has undergone a much-needed renovation, as well as significant changes to the menu that will reshape the neighborhood favorite. Donato Enoteca reopens on Tuesday, August 12. The updated interior was a byproduct of 16 years of wear and tear, explains co-owner Donato Scotti, but as for changes elsewhere, it was a matter of survival. 'The demographic is changing,' Scotti says. 'A lot of younger people live in in Redwood City; we still have a regular customer base from the neighboring city and [our] city as well, but I felt like we needed to act on it, in order to say, 'How do we last another 16 years and be as successful the next 16, as we were before?' It's a question that many restaurateurs and chefs who have managed to stay open for over 10 years have asked themselves. An eternal question, really: How do you stay fresh and continue to attract new customers? 'The hardest part to me is how you keep generating [people] coming into your restaurant and how you sustain it, keep it going in a way so that you don't feel the downturn of the economy or whatever,' Scotti says. 'I know that a lot of the industry generally is suffering because of all the costs and the tariffs and this and that. But at the end of the day, it's a circle, and we'll all going to come out in a better position just like we did in 2009.' As part of the changes, Scotti will no longer be in the kitchen. He's brought on chef Marco Bertoldo, who worked at prestigious European restaurants such as Michelin-starred Ristorante Le Calandre and Osteria Degli Amici Figino before he moved to San Francisco as chef at Poesia. The new menu will offer shareable plates, and the bar menu will center cicchetti (Venetian snacks and small plates). 'If you wanted to keep the prices of our items in line with what our vision is, as far as pricing or check average, why don't we manage portion — offer smaller dishes, and increase the amount of dishes that people eat, so that they could try different things?' Scotti says. Nadia Andreini Nadia Andreini Nadia Andreini Nadia Andreini The homemade salumi is still on the menu, but from there, Bertoldo has new things in store for diners. Particularly, Scotti is excited for the new pastas, like the pasta patate e Provola, a pasta dish with potatoes that Scotti says is a staple of Naples that is lesser-seen in the Bay Area. The colore croccante, with crisp pork belly and Brentwood corn, is 'to die for,' per Scotti, while the baccala mantecato is a Venetian dish of milk-braised salted cod, another upcoming menu item. Another addition is the padellino-style pizza, a type most associated with Northern Italy. Created by Simone Padoan in San Bonifacio, Italy, pizza al padellino is a pizza that rises and is parbaked in a pan before being finished in a wood-burning oven. The result is 'really airy and very fluffy and very light,' Scotti says. 'After you bake it, you put the topping that you want on, or you slice it in half, lengthwise, and you can fill it with meat, tuna, or whatever. And so they became really popular, and nobody's doing this [here].' The bar menu is composed of cicchetti and cocktails, and with the food, Scotti says, 'we try to bring some of the tradition, but let Marco express his creativity and flavors.' Another bacala, or salted cod, appears on the menu as baccala e beitole, served with red beets and toasted bread, while the tonno al rafano is a seared ahi tuna with horseradish mayo. It's a step in a new direction for the restaurant. 'We've been here for 16 years,' Scotti says. 'We try to do something different now, because that's what we did when we first opened. We wanted to improve our bar business in general, because of the younger generation. So we redesigned the whole bar to create a sense of community.' Donato Enoteca (1041 Middlefield Road, Redwood City) reopens on Tuesday, August 11, and is open from 4 p.m. to 9:30 p.m. Tuesday through Thursday, 4 p.m. to 10 p.m. Friday and Saturday, and 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. on Sunday. Nadia Andreini Nadia Andreini Eater SF All your essential food and restaurant intel delivered to you Email (required) Sign Up By submitting your email, you agree to our Terms and Privacy Notice . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Business Insider
14 minutes ago
- Business Insider
Wave of arrests in Mali targets soldiers accused of plotting against junta leader
Mali's complicated political terrain has been jolted once more with the alleged arrest of several dozen soldiers, including two high-ranking generals, over the weekend. Allegations emerged of a coup attempt in Mali, resulting in the arrest of several military personnel, including high-ranking officials. The arrests highlight deepening tensions within Mali's junta led by General Assimi Goïta. The military administration has yet to provide an official statement regarding these detentions. The arrests were tied to an apparent coup attempt to destabilize the institutions of the Sahel nation. According to security and political sources, the arrests were carried out in a massive nighttime operation targeting troops accused of attempting to depose Mali's military leadership. The detentions are anticipated to continue in the coming days, highlighting growing internal tensions within the junta. "Since three days ago, there have been arrests linked to an attempt to destabilise the institutions. There have been at least around 20 arrests," a Malian security source told AFP. Another source within the Malian army spoke of an "attempt at destabilisation", adding: "We have gone ahead with the necessary arrests". Gen Abass Dembele, the former governor of the Mopti area, and Gen Nema Sagara, one of the few women to reach the highest levels of the Malian army, are among those purportedly detained. A BBC source, however, debunked the claim, noting that the generals in question may not have been apprehended. The military administration has yet to release a formal statement regarding the arrests. Mali's recent political landscape Mali's current administration, commanded by General Assimi Goïta, took power through successive coups in 2020 and 2021, removing the previous civilian-led government amid growing unhappiness with instability. Relations with France, Mali's former colonial ruler, deteriorated as the junta accused Paris of failing to adequately combat Islamist organizations. Bamako made a strategic shift, turning to new friends, most notably Russia. The contentious deployment of Russian paramilitary soldiers, initially through the Wagner Group and now through its replacement, the Africa Corps, has aided the army's counterinsurgency operations while also drawing condemnation from Western countries and human rights organizations.
San Francisco Chronicle
43 minutes ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
By sending troops to D.C. and eyeing Oakland, Trump continues targeting Black-led cities
When President Donald Trump announced Monday that he will deploy National Guard troops to the streets of Washington D.C. to combat crime, he named several other cities where he might take similar action. 'We have other cities also that are bad. Very bad,' Trump said during the White House news conference. 'You look at Chicago, how bad it is. You look at Los Angeles, how bad it is. We have other cities that are very bad. New York has a problem. And then you have, of course, Baltimore and Oakland. We don't even mention that anymore there.' Trump and other members of his administration, while often using false or misleading statistics, have cited rampant crime as the justification for deploying federalized troops within U.S. cities. But these cities share another commonality: They're led by Black mayors. Critics don't think that's a coincidence. Trump's focus on Washington D.C., Chicago, Baltimore, New York and Oakland is part of a larger pattern in which the president has suggested cities with majority-Black populations, or those led by Black leaders, are hotbeds of crime and corruption and symbols of American decline. 'I see this as a political dog whistle to his base, evoking long-running stereotypes that Black mayors cannot adequately govern or are soft on crime in their cities,' said Jordie Davies, a professor of political science at UC Irvine. 'Donald Trump is engaging in political theater so he can be seen as responding to the racist ideas that these cities are poorly run and overrun with crime — even as statistics demonstrate that violent crime in major U.S. cities, including D.C., is down this year.' Reports of violent crimes — homicides, robberies, assaults and sexual abuse —have seen steep declines over the last two years, the Washington Post reported. 'If he is going to start lying about major American cities to justify sending the military there, it is not surprising to me that he would pick cities with Black leadership and significant Black populations,' state Sen. Scott Wiener, D-San Francisco, said Monday. 'That is straight up Donald Trump's alley and straight out of his racist playbook.' Crime is also falling in Oakland, a trend that Mayor Barbara Lee cited Monday in arguing that Trump was less interested in facts than in scoring 'cheap political points by tearing down communities he doesn't understand.' Oakland experienced a 6% increase in reported violent crimes in 2024, but saw a decrease in homicides and property crimes, according to a Chronicle analysis. So far in 2025, violent crimes including homicides are down significantly in the city. 'We're making real progress on public safety in Oakland, and while we acknowledge we have more work to do, we are doing this work each and every day,' Lee said. 'Our comprehensive public safety strategy is working — crime rates are coming down even though we still face many challenges. And let me repeat, President Trump is wrong.' Before Trump accepted the Republican presidential nomination at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee last year, he reportedly called the city 'horrible.' 'Trump is a lot of things but he certainly isn't subtle—all of the cities he denigrates have one important thing in common: they all have significant Black populations,' DNC Chair Jaime Harrison said in a statement to the Daily Beast at the time. In 2020, Trump said of Detroit, Oakland and Baltimore, 'these cities, it's like living in hell.' 'And everyone gets upset when I say it, they say, 'Is that a racist statement? ' It's not a racist,' Trump told Fox News. 'Frankly, Black people come up to me, they say, 'Thank you. Thank you sir for saying it.'' Davies, the UC Irvine professor, said using the fear of crime — especially the idea of 'Black crime' — has always been an effective political message in the U.S. It was a message Trump hammered consistently in the 2024 election, a race in which he doubled his share of Black voters from 2020. (still, Trump's opponent, then-Vice President Kamala Harris, won 83% of Black voters.) 'Crime evokes fear and fear provides a political vacuum that can be filled with state violence,' Davies said. 'It will be important for experts, politicians, and journalists to call out Trump's lies about crime in these places and name this for what it is: a racist attempt to dominate Black cities and a performance of power for his base.'
