MDLZ Q1 Deep Dive: Cocoa Inflation Drives Pricing Actions, U.S. Demand Remains Soft

Yahoo

18-06-2025

Packaged snacks company Mondelez (NASDAQ:MDLZ) met Wall Street's revenue expectations in Q1 CY2025, but sales were flat year on year at $9.31 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.74 per share was 12.2% above analysts' consensus estimates.
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Revenue: $9.31 billion vs analyst estimates of $9.31 billion (flat year on year, in line)
Adjusted EPS: $0.74 vs analyst estimates of $0.66 (12.2% beat)
Adjusted EBITDA: $1.7 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.54 billion (18.2% margin, 10.6% beat)
Operating Margin: 7.3%, down from 29.4% in the same quarter last year
Organic Revenue rose 3.1% year on year (4.2% in the same quarter last year)
Sales Volumes fell 3.5% year on year (-2.1% in the same quarter last year)
Market Capitalization: $85.91 billion
Mondelez's first quarter was marked by stable sales and a notable profit outperformance, leading to a positive market reaction. Management attributed the quarter's results to effective pricing strategies in response to record cocoa costs, especially within its chocolate segment. CEO Dirk Van de Put explained, 'Our top line grew 3.1% behind strong pricing execution across our chocolate business due to unprecedented input costs for cocoa.' The quarter also saw continued brand loyalty, particularly for core products like Oreo and Cadbury, despite economic pressures causing U.S. consumers to shift toward value-oriented purchases.
Looking ahead, Mondelez expects ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and elevated commodity costs to shape its performance. Management pointed to further pricing actions, product innovation, and targeted activations as key levers for growth, especially in Europe and emerging markets. CFO Luca Zaramella emphasized that 'pricing across the board, whether it is chocolate in developed and emerging markets or biscuits in emerging markets, is absolutely on track,' but cautioned that U.S. consumer confidence is unlikely to rebound quickly. The company plans to maintain agility in its strategy, focusing on both cost discipline and reinvestment should commodity pressures ease.
Management cited strong pricing execution in chocolate, continued investment in brand and product innovation, and mixed geographic consumer sentiment as primary factors shaping the quarter's results and ongoing strategy.
Cocoa-driven pricing actions: Mondelez implemented significant price increases in its chocolate segment to offset record cocoa costs, with management emphasizing minimal disruption and elasticities in line with expectations. The pricing strategy included tiered pack sizes and protected entry-level price points in key markets.
Volume declines from elasticity and destocking: The company experienced a 3.5% volume decline, driven by consumer sensitivity to higher prices, retailer inventory reductions in North America, and seasonal timing shifts related to Easter. Management noted that U.S. biscuit volumes faced additional pressure from lower consumption and value-seeking behavior.
Emerging market performance varies: While China and Brazil delivered strong results, India and Southeast Asia saw softer demand due to economic uncertainty and inflation. Management expects emerging markets to accelerate in the second half of the year through distribution gains and targeted promotions.
Brand and product innovation: Mondelez launched several notable activations, including Oreo's partnership with Post Malone and the Cadbury Dairy Milk Biscoff bar. These initiatives are part of a broader effort to maintain consumer interest and drive share gains despite external pressures.
Agility in cost management: The company delivered ahead-of-schedule productivity improvements, particularly in procurement, and opportunistically secured better input pricing for some commodities. Management indicated that any future margin upside from easing cocoa costs would likely be reinvested to support long-term brand health.
Mondelez's outlook is guided by ongoing pricing initiatives, cost discipline, and a focus on adapting to shifting consumer sentiment across regions.
Sustained pricing and RGM strategy: Management reiterated its commitment to a revenue growth management (RGM) approach—offering a range of pack sizes and price points tailored to regional consumer needs. The company expects continued pricing actions to offset commodity pressures, with elasticity and consumer response closely monitored, especially in Europe and emerging markets.
Consumer confidence and U.S. demand: Mondelez remains cautious about U.S. consumer sentiment, noting ongoing value-seeking behaviors and lower frequency of snacking purchases. Management does not anticipate a near-term rebound in U.S. demand, and plans to focus on affordable formats, promotional activations, and multi-pack offerings to stabilize share and volumes.
Potential margin reinvestment: Should cocoa prices moderate, management intends to reinvest some of the resulting margin improvement into brand support and innovation, rather than prioritizing short-term profit gains. This approach is designed to ensure long-term competitiveness and sustained category health.
In the quarters ahead, the StockStory team will be watching (1) how effectively Mondelez sustains its pricing strategy while managing elasticity and consumer pushback, (2) whether volume trends in the U.S. biscuit and chocolate segments stabilize as retailer destocking subsides, and (3) acceleration in emerging market growth, particularly in India and China. The outcome of cocoa price movements and any resulting adjustments to reinvestment priorities will also be key indicators for the company's trajectory.
Mondelez currently trades at $66.41, up from $65.58 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock?Find out in our full research report (it's free).
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