How Newsom could redraw career ambitions

Politico

30-07-2025

LEADING THE DAY — MAPPING IT OUT: The potential contours of a snap California redistrict are coming into focus (more on the politics of that exercise below).
Attorney General Rob Bonta suggested yesterday that lawmakers could put a new, fully realized map before voters for up-or-down approval. 'I think that's what's being contemplated here and I think that's what the legal pathway is,' Bonta told reporters, noting he'd been in touch with Gov. Gavin Newsom's office. Remember, Bonta's office would write an initiative's official title and summary.
Newsom has said he's reviewing three or four options to proceed, including simply having the Legislature draw lines on the theory it retains the authority to do so despite California's independent commission. But Bonta's remarks suggest a special election could be the smoothest path — though it would still be a bumpy one. Speaking of which ...
MAPMAKING MELEE — Newsom's push for a Democrat-boosting California gerrymander would have to run through the Legislature — where it could collide with lawmakers' career plans.
Few prizes tantalize term-limited state lawmakers quite like a safe House seat that's effectively a lifetime gig. But returning to a bygone era of redistricting hardball could complicate life for ambitious incumbents redrawing the seats they hope to one day represent. California voters chose in 2010 to sideline self-interested politicians from the map-making process; restoring their role, as the governor wants to do, reopens some of those old incentives.
'I've seen the negotiations. I've seen all the arm-twisting that Willie (Brown) and Phil Burton had to do,' said Bruce Cain, who helped craft maps for the former Democratic leaders. Burton, he added, 'had to browbeat people into things they wouldn't want to do.'
For now, California Democrats are publicly rallying behind a national push to counter Texas' planned GOP gerrymander. Even frontline House members are saying Democrats have to be armed with every option.
But it's one thing to proclaim your support for a plan embraced by party grandees like Newsom and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Getting 54 Assembly votes and 27 Senate votes for new maps is a different matter. Some of the Democrats who will be asked to vote for the gambit will have to balance personal plans and party priorities.
Rarely does a vote in the state Legislature so directly tie into national politics or draw in national figures.
Some career ambitions are an open secret: state Sen. Scott Wiener's run to replace Rep. Nancy Pelosi is only a matter of when Pelosi retires, and Speaker Robert Rivas is widely seen as a contender to replace Rep. Zoe Lofgren when she exits. A half-dozen other House Democrats sitting on safe seats around the state are in their 70s or 80s.
Then there are people actively campaigning for a promotion, like Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, who's running to unseat GOP Rep. David Valadao in a seat that could soon look very different (and that Valadao has held onto despite a sturdy Democratic edge).
Caveats apply: Newsom has talked about redoing only House seats, not the Legislature's, which would spare incumbents being drawn into the kind of clashes with colleagues we saw repeatedly in 2022. Congress' lack of a residency requirement could spare people moving costs (or FBI probes). The current nonpartisan process still yielded crowded, multi-incumbent Democratic primaries like the brawl for ex-Rep. Adam Schiff's seat.
And there's a specific type of state lawmaker whose options would be affected: one who overlaps with a safe House seat, held by a member nearing retirement, that is close enough to a Republican seat to be affected by its redraw. That's a limited universe — solidly blue seats with octogenarian incumbents, like Pelosi's, may not shift much.
'You might have a situation where 90 percent of voters are going to be in their same district,' said redistricting guru Paul Mitchell.
Governors have a way of getting what they want — particularly when they're rowing alongside the national Democratic apparatus — and Newsom's message of confronting and countering Republicans has resonated with plenty of Democrats. But the changes Newsom is seeking may compel incumbents to dust off their contingency plans.
'Every day,' said Susannah Delano, head of the female candidate recruiting organization Close the Gap, 'is a good day for succession planning.'
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WHERE'S GAVIN? Not attending Lady Gaga's concert tour in California, unlike another prominent San Francisco politician. More on that below …
IN THE COURTS
BILL BACKS DOWN — Acting U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli on Tuesday dropped charges against Alejandro Orellana — who was previously indicted by a federal grand jury for handing out masks to protesters of immigration raids.
Bloomberg earlier Tuesday reported that Essayli forced staff to prioritize prosecuting Orellana against their counsel — one of several episodes that sparked internal backlash and reportedly led to mass departures in the Los Angeles-based Central District prosecutor's ranks. MAGA faithful celebrated Orellana's arrest, holding it up as a path-clearing victory for the president's deportation agenda.
A spokesperson for Essayli's office declined to comment on why the charges were dropped.
The same day, Essayli moved to dismiss corporate fraud charges against Trump donor Andrew Wiederhorn, the founder of FAT Brands Inc., Bloomberg reported. His office's filing did not cite a reason.
Essayli had, according to the LA Times and Bloomberg, struggled to secure grand jury indictments during his interim appointment that was set to expire this week. The Trump administration on Tuesday moved to extend his time in the role by changing his status from 'interim' to 'acting attorney,' a maneuver the administration has also employed this year in New York, New Jersey and Nevada to prolong U.S. attorneys' time in office without Senate confirmation.
— with reporting from Josh Gerstein and Nicole Norman
LOS ANGELES
DENSITY DOUBTS — Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass is asking Newsom and state lawmakers to prevent developers from using a state housing law to construct multiple new units on the lots of single-family homes destroyed by the Palisades fire.
Bass, in a statement Tuesday, said denser construction in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood 'could drastically further challenge ingress and egress (in a high fire-hazard zone) following the worst fire disaster the city has ever faced.' She warned that allowing multiple new residences per lot could also strain local infrastructure.
Bass' warning comes amid a social media furor over the potential impact of SB 9 on local rebuilding efforts. The law, passed in 2021, was an effort to ease the state's housing shortage by requiring cities to allow denser development — such as duplexes or lot splits — on land zoned for single-family homes.
But residents of the Palisades, including influencers like former reality star Spencer Pratt (who's sparred with Newsom's office over recovery efforts), have taken to social media in recent days to stoke fears that denser housing could hamper future evacuations.
Tara Gallegos, a spokesperson for Newsom, said the governor's office is working with local officials to evaluate their concerns. She added, 'We'll have more to share in the coming days.'
Meanwhile, pro-housing advocacy groups are trying to tamp down the uproar. Matthew Lewis, a spokesperson for California YIMBY, said longtime opponents of SB 9 are 'opportunistically' using the specter of fire evacuations to target the law when only a handful of new duplexes have been proposed so far.
Instead, Lewis said state leaders should focus on developing smarter fire-evacuation plans, noting that traffic jams have been a hazard during numerous catastrophes. 'It's not going to be solved by blocking seven homes,' he said.
CAMPAIGN YEAR(S)
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: LEG WORK — Toni Atkins nabbed the endorsement of Mike McGuire — the leader of the California Senate who ousted her from that role just two years ago — as she campaigns for governor.
'She's relentless in her pursuit to expand affordable housing, lower costs for all Californians and no one brings people together like she does,' McGuire said in a statement. 'She has a spine of steel, takes on big fights and wins, and she always puts people before politics.'
Atkins, whose leadership of the state Assembly and Senate was noted for its lack of drama, lags other Democratic candidates in public polling. But she served in the Legislature more recently than any of her competitors and has received a boost from her Sacramento connections. State Sens. Scott Wiener, John Laird and Caroline Menjivar are also endorsing her this week, as have Assemblymembers Cecilia Aguiar-Curry and LaShae Sharp-Collins and former Sens. Susan Eggman and Richard Roth.
CLIMATE AND ENERGY
CRUDE AWAKENING — California policymakers are heading for yet another late-session push on gas prices — except this time they're embracing some oil industry priorities instead of fighting them. Gov. Gavin Newsom's proposal to extract more crude from Kern County's oilfields is dividing environmentalists but gaining traction among lawmakers, at least one of whom sees the outline of a megadeal emerging. Read last night's California Climate for more.
STAFFING NOTE — We're excited to share that Noah Baustin has joined POLITICO's California Climate team and started covering energy and the environment yesterday. He joins us from the San Francisco Standard, where he racked up scoops and uncovered municipal corruption as a data reporter. Wish him congratulations at [e-mail].
TOP TALKERS
HOUSING TROUBLES — The number of new homes listed for sale in San Francisco, San Diego, Riverside and Anaheim had double-digit year-over-year declines, CalMatters reports, as stubbornly high prices and interest rates have kept buyers on the sidelines.
MIXED RECEPTION — Longtime Los Angeles city prosecutor Gita O'Neill has been appointed to temporarily serve as chief executive of the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority after the previous leader stepped down, LAist reports. Bass applauded O'Neill's 'deep expertise and leadership,' while some advocates expressed concerns over the appointment, arguing that O'Neill has previously enforced policies that 'criminalize and displace' homeless people.
AROUND THE STATE
— Apple is set to buy a Silicon Valley property for more than $360 million, marking its third Bay Area deal this year. (San Francisco Chronicle)
— Imperial Beach's Central Elementary had its last first day after members of the South Bay Union board earlier this year voted to close it at the end of this year. (inewsource)
— CalPERS is hoping to save hundreds of millions of dollars and rein in drug costs through a new pharmacy benefits contract. (The Sacramento Bee)
PLAYBOOKERS
SPOTTED: PAWS UP, PELOSI — Rep. Nancy Pelosi and her husband, Paul, attended Gaga's sold-out 'Mayhem Ball' concert tour at Chase Center in San Francisco this week.
A video posted on X shows the former speaker dancing in the audience, swaying along as Mother Monster belted out the words to 'Abracadabra,' her latest dark electropop hit. 'The most fun I've had in a long time,' Pelosi later posted on X. 'It was a fabulous show in San Francisco!'
STORK ALERT — Assemblymember Marc Berman and his wife, Aimee Gildea, welcomed their son Kaiden Noah Gildea into the world on July 19. 'Kaiden has been a dream of theirs for a very long time, and Marc is so grateful to Aimee for everything she went through to make that dream come true,' Berman's office said in an email.
PEOPLE MOVES — José González has been promoted to director of human resources at the Alliance for Community Empowerment. He was previously HR manager.
— Judith Hasko has been promoted to chair of WilmerHale's transactional department and will succeed Mick Bain following his retirement. Hasko will remain based in Palo Alto.
BIRTHDAYS — former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger ... Todd Campbell at Clean Energy Fuels … Jonathan Kanter … actress Lisa Kudrow … attorney Ronald E. Stackler … Jonathan Spalter of USTelecom … Mark Beatty of Google … Ashley Alman … Lindsay Butcher …
BELATED B-DAY WISHES — (was Tuesday): Joshua Radnor ... (was Monday) Sophia Danzeisen in the office of Rep. John Garamendi
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