NBA Game 7 preview: Breaking it down by the numbers
Indiana will play at Oklahoma City on Sunday night in the final game of the season, with the winner getting the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
Home teams are 15-4 in Game 7 of the finals, but a road team — Cleveland, over Golden State — won the most recent of those games in 2016.
A look inside some numbers surrounding this matchup:
There have been only two 40-point scoring performances in Game 7 of the NBA Finals — and both came in losing efforts.
Jerry West scored 42 points in Game 7 of the 1969 series, but the Los Angeles Lakers lost to the Boston Celtics in Bill Russell's final game. And Elgin Baylor scored 41 points in Game 7 in 1962 — another Lakers-Celtics matchup — but Boston prevailed in that one as well.
Bob Pettit had the third-highest scoring total in a Game 7. He had 39 for the St. Louis Hawks against the Celtics in 1957 ... and Boston won that game as well.
The highest-scoring Game 7s in a winning effort? Those would be by Boston's Tom Heinsohn in that 1957 game against St. Louis and Miami's LeBron James in the 2013 series against San Antonio. Both had 37; Heinsohn's was a double-overtime game, James got his in regulation.
Yes, these are high-scoring teams. Oklahoma City was No. 4 in points per game in the regular season (120.5 per game) and Indiana was No. 7 (117.4). The Thunder are second in that category in the playoffs (115.2), just ahead of No. 3 Indiana (115.1).
In Game 7, that might not matter much.
No team has reached 100 points in Game 7 of the NBA Finals since 1988. Or even topped 95 points, for that matter.
The last five Game 7s:
— 2016, Cleveland 93, Golden State 89
— 2013, Miami 95, San Antonio 88
— 2010, Los Angeles Lakers 83, Boston 79
— 2005, San Antonio 81, Detroit 74
— 1994, Houston 90, New York 84
The last finals Game 7 to see someone hit the century mark was when the Lakers beat the Pistons 108-105 in 1988.
The average margin of victory in Game 7 of an NBA Finals: 6.9 points.
Each of the last eight such games have been decided by single digits. Only four have been double-digit wins: Boston over St. Louis by 19 in 1960, Minneapolis over New York by 17 in 1952, Boston over Milwaukee by 15 in 1974 and New York over the Lakers by 14 in 1970.
The closest Game 7 in the finals was Syracuse beating Fort Wayne 92-91 in 1955. That was one of six Game 7s decided by three points or less.
The Thunder are the 22nd No. 1 seed to play in Game 7 of an NBA Finals. Their 21 predecessors on that list are 12-9 in the ultimate game; seven of those games have been ones where both teams entered the playoffs as No. 1 seeds.
The Pacers are the fourth No. 4 seed to make Game 7 of the title round. Their three predecessors went 1-2 (Boston beat the Lakers in 1969, Seattle lost to Washington in 1978 and the Celtics lost to the Lakers in 2010).
It'll be the fourth Game 7 for Indiana forwards Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner. Siakam's teams have gone 2-1 in Game 7s, Turner's have gone 1-2.
Indiana's Aaron Nesmith is 2-0 in the pair of Game 7s in which he has played, with Indiana winning at New York last year and Boston beating Milwaukee in 2022. Both of those wins were in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the league's reigning MVP, has averaged 27 points in two previous Game 7s. Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton scored 26 points in his lone Game 7 to this point.
No player on either side has previously been part of a Game 7 in the NBA Finals.
The NBA doesn't announce referee assignments until game day, so it won't be known until Sunday morning who the three-person crew is for Game 7.
This much is certain: for at least two of the referees, it'll be the first time on the NBA Finals Game 7 stage.
Scott Foster — who would seem a likely pick this year — worked Game 7 in 2013 alongside Dan Crawford and Monty McCutchen, and Game 7 of the title series in 2010 with Dan Crawford and Joe Crawford.
The most recent Game 7 was in 2016 and the crew for that game was Dan Crawford, McCutchen and Mike Callahan.
Outside of Foster, no referee in this year's pool has been on the court for a Game 7 in the NBA Finals.
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Predicting Michigan State and every other Big Ten team's record in 2025
It's that time of the year when anyone and everyone has thoughts on how the college football season will play out -- so why would I be any different? I'm back again this year with my annual game-by-game predictions for all of the Big Ten teams, where I'm projecting a better fall for our Spartans this year. Michigan State comes into this season looking to snap a three-year bowl drought, and I'm pretty confident that will happen with my predictions for the Spartans this fall. Included in this year's predictions are... So without further ado, here are my Big Ten football predictions for the upcoming 2025 season: Illinois Record: 9-3 (6-3 in Big Ten) Wins: Western Illinois, at Duke, Western Michigan, at Indiana, USC, at Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland and Northwestern Losses: Ohio State, at Washington and at Wisconsin Thoughts: Like many looking for a trendy pick, I'm pretty high on the Fighting Illini entering the 2025 season. They return a ton of talent from a team that won 10 games last season, and most notably have a veteran quarterback in Luke Altmyer and strong offensive line. I have Illinois getting off to a fast start of 6-0 before sputtering during the back half of the year, with an upset at Wisconsin derailing their goal of reaching the College Football Playoff. Indiana Record: 7-5 (4-5 in Big Ten) Wins: Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, Indiana State, UCLA, at Maryland, Wisconsin and at Purdue Losses: Illinois, at Iowa, at Oregon, Michigan State and at Penn State Thoughts: Indiana was the team that shocked the system last year by going 11-1 and reaching the College Football Playoff. This year, though, I'm not expecting the same kind of success with a more difficult slate of games ahead for the Hoosiers. Indiana should still be a lock to go bowling, but I anticipate a tough four game stretch of Illinois, at Iowa, at Oregon and Michigan State to end any dreams of back-to-back College Football Playoff trips for Curt Cignetti. Iowa Record: 7-5 (5-4 in Big Ten) Wins: UAlbany, UMass, at Rutgers, Indiana, Minnesota, Oregon and Michigan State Losses: at Iowa State, at Wisconsin, Penn State, at USC and at Nebraska Thoughts: Can we finally trust the Hawkeyes' offense led by South Dakota State transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski? He's ultimately the difference maker on whether or not Iowa is a College Football Playoff contender or just another solid team from the Big Ten. I'm in the mindset of let's wait and see before getting too excited, so I have Iowa finishing more near their floor than ceiling, but wouldn't be surprised at all if they end up hitting double-digit wins this season. Maryland Record: 4-8 (1-8 in Big Ten) Wins: Florida Atlantic, Northern Illinois, Towson and Washington Losses: at Wisconsin, Nebraska, at UCLA, Indiana, at Rutgers, at Illinois, Michigan and Michigan State (neutral site) Thoughts: It feels like this could be the season that things truly go south for the Terps and we see the end of the Mike Locksley era at Maryland. The Terps benefit from arguably the easiest schedule in the conference, but I anticipate a major slide when Maryland hits the thick of conference play. I have the Terps losing their final seven games, with a chance that Locksley is already gone by the time the Terps come to Ford Field for the season finale against Michigan State. Michigan Record: 8-4 (6-3 in Big Ten) Wins: New Mexico, Central Michigan, at Nebraska, Wisconsin, Washington, Purdue, at Northwestern and at Maryland Losses: at Oklahoma, at USC, at Michigan State and Ohio State Thoughts: Michigan is maybe one of the hardest teams to forecast for the upcoming season, as the ceiling could be national championship contender while the floor could be struggling to reach bowl eligibility. The defense should still be stellar for the Wolverines and it'll ultimately come down to how quickly can five-star quarterback Bryce Underwood come around as the expected starter. I think they'll take some early season lumps due to his inexperience but could be dangerous by the end of the season -- something Ryan Day and Ohio State doesn't want to hear. Minnesota Record: 7-5 (4-5 in Big Ten) Wins: Buffalo, Northwestern State, at Cal, Rutgers, Purdue, Michigan State and Wisconsin Losses: at Ohio State, Nebraska, at Iowa, at Oregon and at Northwestern Thoughts: Minnesota feels like they're going to be Minnesota again this year. I understand that's not terribly descriptive but it is a credit to the consistency the Golden Gophers have established under P.J. Fleck. I believe a new young quarterback in Drake Lindsey will be a limitation for Minnesota to contend for double-digit wins, but I am very confident they'll make a bowl game with relative ease. Nebraska Record: 8-4 (5-4 in Big Ten) Wins: Cincinnati, Akron, Houston Christian, Michigan State, at Maryland, at Minnesota, Northwestern and Iowa Losses: Michigan, USC, at UCLA and at Penn State Thoughts: Can Nebraska break through in 2025? They're a trendy dark horse pick to reach the College Football Playoff out of the Big Ten but I'm not quite that high on them just yet. I have the Cornhuskers getting off to a great start of 7-1 before they drop three straight late in the year to end any hope of reaching the playoff. Northwestern Record: 3-9 (1-8 in Big Ten) Wins: Western Illinois, Louisiana Monroe and Minnesota Losses: at Tulane, Oregon, UCLA, at Penn State, Purdue, at Nebraska, at USC, Michigan and at Illinois Thoughts: The David Braun magic from 2023 is gone -- or at least that's my prediction. The Wildcats' roster and tough schedule this season (which includes a road trip to Tulane to open the season) has me expecting another rough season for Northwestern. I'm not sure Northwestern will be ready to move on from Braun quite yet, but I would expect him to be on the hot seat entering next season. Ohio State Record: 11-1 (9-0 in Big Ten) Wins: Grambling State, Ohio, at Washington, Minnesota, at Illinois, at Wisconsin, Penn State, at Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers and at Michigan Losses: Texas Thoughts: Not much of a hot take to say Ohio State is going to once again be really good this year, but opening the season with a home loss to Texas is at least a little bit spicy. The early season defeat to the Longhorns is the only loss I have on the schedule for Ohio State as they will get back to Indy for the Big Ten Championship Game for the first time since 2020. Oregon Record: 10-2 (7-2 in Big Ten) Wins: Montana State, Oklahoma State, at Northwestern, Oregon State, Indiana, at Rutgers, Wisconsin, Minnesota, USC and at Washington Losses: at Penn State and at Iowa Thoughts: Oregon was the team to beat in the Big Ten last year, going 13-0 with a Big Ten title in their first year in the league. The Ducks now will look to defend their crown with a new quarterback in Dante Moore and a number of new key contributors expected across the board. I'm anticipating the Ducks will take a slight step back this year but still good enough to find their way back into the College Football Playoff. Penn State Record: 10-2 (7-2 in Big Ten) Wins: Nevada, Florida International, Villanova, Oregon, Northwestern, at Iowa, Indiana, at Michigan State, Nebraska and at Rutgers Losses: at UCLA and at Ohio State Thoughts: Expectations have never been higher for Penn State under James Franklin, but can they live up to the hype? I'm on the fence because I need to see it before I can believe it when it comes to beating Ohio State, at least. I have the Nittany Lions going 10-2, with a surprise upset loss on a west coast trip to UCLA before stumbling at Ohio State. Will that be enough to get them back to the Big Ten title game? More on that later... Purdue Record: 3-9 (1-8 in Big Ten) Wins: Ball State, Southern Illinois and at Northwestern Losses: USC, at Notre Dame, Illinois, Minnesota, Rutgers, at Michigan, Ohio State, at Washington and Indiana Thoughts: I like the hire of Barry Odom for head coach but I unfortunately don't like what he will be forced to work with in year one. I expect the Boilermakers to take some lumps in year one under Odom, and wouldn't be shocked if they go winless in Big Ten play for a second straight year. Rutgers Record: 4-8 (2-7 in Big Ten) Wins: Ohio, Norfolk State, at Purdue and Maryland Losses: Miami (OH), Iowa, at Minnesota, at Washington, Oregon, at Illinois, at Ohio State and Penn State Thoughts: The schedule is brutal for Rutgers this season, with games against arguably the top four teams in the Big Ten (Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon and Illinois). Combine that with a couple of trappy non-conference games to open the year and I could see this being a rough year for the Scarlet Knights. My week two upset loss to Miami (OH) is where I see things start to derail early in the year. UCLA Record: 6-6 (4-5 in Big Ten) Wins: at UNLV, New Mexico, at Northwestern, Penn State, Maryland and Nebraska Losses: Utah, at Michigan State, at Indiana, at Ohio State, Washington and at USC Thoughts: UCLA will be must-watch TV (at least early in the season) thanks to the Nico Iamaleava transfer portal addition during the spring window. It'll be interesting to see how much he can elevate the Bruins, and for me personally, I think he's the difference between UCLA making and not making a bowl game. I also believe he plays a role in the Bruins picking up some notable wins over Penn State and Nebraska this season. USC Record: 9-3 (7-2 in Big Ten) Wins: Missouri State, Georgia Southern, at Purdue, Michigan State, Michigan, at Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa and UCLA Losses: at Illinois, at Notre Dame and at Oregon Thoughts: I'm bullish on the Trojans having a strong season and being a contender for the Big Ten title. The success or failures of USC will come down to quarterback play in Jayden Maiava, but the overall talent around him should be enough to give the Trojans a much higher floor this season than last. The schedule is tough, but if they can get past Michigan and at Nebraska, then I like their chances to reach nine, and maybe, 10 wins this season. Washington Record: 7-5 (4-5 in Big Ten) Wins: Colorado State, UC Davis, at Washington State, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue and at UCLA Losses: Ohio State, at Maryland, at Michigan, at Wisconsin and Oregon Thoughts: There is a lot of excitement around what Jedd Fisch can do in year two at Washington -- in large part because of new starting quarterback Demond Williams Jr. He showed sparks of his capabilities last season, which has led some around the country to expect big things from the Huskies this year. I like Williams, but I'm not ready to go all in on Washington this year. Wisconsin Record: 6-6 (4-5 in Big Ten) Wins: Miami (OH), Middle Tennessee State, Maryland, Iowa, Washington and Illinois Losses: at Alabama, at Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, at Indiana and at Minnesota Thoughts: Wisconsin is set to play one of (if not the) hardest schedules in the country this season so if they can just make a bowl game this year, that would be a massive success. The Badgers have probably three "easily" winnable games but after that it's tough sledding. If quarterback Billy Edwards can stay healthy for Wisconsin, then I think they find a way to pull a few upsets and get back to bowl eligibility to reduce the heat on head coach Luke Fickell's seat in Madison, Wisc. Michigan State Record: 7-5 (4-5 in Big Ten) Wins: Western Michigan, Boston College, Youngstown State, UCLA, at Indiana, Michigan and Maryland Losses: at USC, at Nebraska, at Minnesota, Penn State and at Iowa Thoughts: The Michigan State schedule is full of toss-up games this season, and I believe they're going to come out on the right side of more than not. The Boston College game in week two will be a defining game for the Spartans this year as I have them winning that one and getting off to a 6-2 start from that momentum. The notable wins over UCLA, Indiana (on the road) and rival Michigan will give fans plenty to be excited about heading into year three under Jonathan Smith. Final Big Ten Standings Here is how the Big Ten standings would look based on my game-by-game predictions: Big Ten Championship Game Ohio State would face Penn State (wins tiebreakers over Oregon and USC) in the Big Ten Championship Game. In the rematch between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions, I have Penn State winning and claiming their first conference title since 2016. College Football Playoff & Bowl Assignments A total of 14 Big Ten teams would be bowl eligible based on my game-by-game predictions. Here is a prediction of where each of those teams would land in the postseason: College Football Playoff: Penn State, Ohio State and Oregon Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: Michigan vs. SEC school Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Iowa vs. Big 12 school GameAbove Sports Bowl: Indiana vs. MAC school Holiday Bowl: USC vs. ACC school LA Bowl: UCLA vs. Mountain West school Las Vegas Bowl: Nebraska vs. former Pac-12 school Music City Bowl: Michigan State vs. SEC school Pinstripe Bowl: Minnesota vs. ACC school ReliaQuest Bowl: Illinois vs. SEC school SERVPRO First Responder Bowl: Wisconsin vs. SEC, ACC or American Conference school Valero Alamo Bowl: Washington vs. Big 12 school Contact/Follow us @The SpartansWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Michigan State news, notes and opinion. You can also follow Robert Bondy on X @RobertBondy5.
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36 minutes ago
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For the first time in more than a decade, the top of the Big Ten offers more than just Ohio State and Michigan. Yes, the Buckeyes are the defending national champions, but the Preseason Top 25 suggests they have company atop the conference in addition to the Wolverines. James Franklin's Nittany Lions of Penn State, in fact, are ranked just ahead of Ryan Day's squad and right behind top-ranked Texas in the season's inaugural poll. Those schools have company with Oregon checking in at No. 7, Illinois 12th, Michigan 14th, and Indiana ranked 20th. Are each of them true contenders for the conference title? Eric Froton (@CFFroton) of NBC Sports takes an in-depth look at each of these contenders starting from the back-end of the Preseason Top 25 Poll offering an overview of each along with a look at players to watch on both sides of the ball, and if said school will go over or under their projected win total. Indiana Hoosiers Head Coach: Curt Cignetti 2024 Record: 11-2 (8-1 B10) Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Lost 27-17 to Notre Dame in 1st Round of CFP Offense Ranking: 34th Offensive Returning Starters: 4 Defense Ranking: 2nd Defensive Returning Starters: 4 Indiana Team Overview Entering 2025, Indiana football has made a stunning leap from Big Ten bottom-dweller to legitimate national contender, finishing 11–2 with an SP+ ranking of 11 and a Top 10 adjusted scoring margin (+24.2 PPG). Under a new coaching regime, the Hoosiers boasted the No. 1 offensive success rate (53.4%) and a stifling defense that ranked Top 5 nationally in both yards per play allowed (4.28) and EPA/play (-0.16), showing elite discipline and execution across the board. Indiana beat seven Power 5 opponents by at least 14 points, held Nebraska to 7 points, blanked Purdue 66–0, and stood toe-to-toe with playoff-bound Notre Dame and Ohio State, proving their 2024 campaign was no fluke and setting a new standard in Bloomington in the expanded Big Ten. Indiana Player to Watch WR Elijah Sarratt posted an exceptional breakout line of 53 catches on 84 targets for 957 yards and 18.1 YPC to go with 8 touchdowns. He has recorded an 81st percentile+ PFF receiving grade in each of his three seasons at the collegiate level and shows elite contented catch ability, having caught a robust 66% of his 64 contested targets over the last three years. Indiana makes the College Football Playoff if: QB Fernando Mendoza thrives under the tutelage of HC Curt Cignetti and OC Mike Shanahan, the defensive line transfers shore up the vacancies on the interior and Indiana runs the table against the soft middle of their schedule and takes at least two of four games against Illinois (home), Iowa (road), Oregon (road) and Penn State (road). Indiana Win Total at DraftKings The Hoosiers will have to clear 8.5 Wins (Under -135) to cover the number. With eight games on the slate that they should be comfortably favored in, the key will be how Indiana handles themselves against the Big Four on their schedule including a home game against Illinois, and road tilts at Iowa, Oregon and Penn State. I'm willing to lay the +115 and take a stab at the Over 8.5 Wins given the plus money and manageable schedule. Michigan Wolverines Head Coach: Sherrone Moore (2nd year) 2024 Record: 8-5 (5-4 B10) Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Defeated Alabama 19-13 in the ReliaQuest Bowl Offense Ranking: 129th Offensive Returning Starters: 8 Defense Ranking: 10th Defensive Returning Starters: 5 Michigan Team Overview Heading into the 2025 season, Michigan finds itself in a period of transition following its historic undefeated national championship in 2023, as the program regressed to an 8–5 mark with a -2.0 second-order win differential in 2024. The Wolverines' defense remained elite, ranking 9th in SP+ and holding opponents to just 4.86 yards per play (15th nationally), but the offense plummeted to 91st in SP+ behind one of the least explosive units in the FBS, finishing 133rd in IsoPPP and 127th in yards per play. With a brutal strength of schedule (2nd overall), a surprise bowl win over Alabama, and a thrilling season-ending upset of rival Ohio State, Michigan enters 2025 needing to overhaul its offensive approach while continuing to lean on one of the nation's stingiest defenses. Michigan Player to Watch RB Justice Haynes comes over from Alabama where he was a premium Top 5 running back prospect from the 2022 prep class. He accrued 440 yards on 5.6 YPC with 7 TDs, while dodging 14 tackles and averaging a decent 3.21 YAC. Haynes also displayed reliable hands by reeling in 17-of-18 targets with 0 drops on the year. He battles sophomore RB Jordan Marshall for RB1 duties and could have a breakout season if he can win the primary RB role. Michigan makes the College Football Playoff if: Bryce Underwood is the Prince that was Promised after Michigan lured him away from LSU late in the cycle, Michigan ramps up their Ground & Pound run game, and Derrick Moore and company pitch a Top 10 defense and shut down Ohio State for a 5th straight year. Michigan Win Total at DraftKings After a rebuilding year, Michigan's win total is listed at 8.5 Wins (Over -160). A manageable 54th-ranked schedule features non-conference gimmies against New Mexico and Central Michigan sandwiched around a pivotal SEC cross-divisional matchup at Oklahoma. Other than their iconic final game against Ohio State, UM manages to avoid Big Ten heavyweights Oregon, Penn State, Indiana and Illinois! With a dream schedule and renewed life on the offensive side of the ball, I'm confident Michigan goes Over 8.5 wins, though tread lightly at the heavy -160. Illinois Fighting Illini Head Coach: Bret Bielema (5th year) 2024 Record: 10-3 (6-3 B10) Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Beat South Carolina 21-17 in the Citrus Bowl Offense Ranking: 92nd Offensive Returning Starters: 9 Defense Ranking: 68th Defensive Returning Starters: 7 Illinois Team Overview Heading into 2025, Illinois finds itself on steady ground under Bret Bielema after finishing 10–3 despite a second-order win total of just 8.2, suggesting some statistical good fortune. The Illini posted their best SP+ finish (32nd) of the Bielema era thanks to a defense ranked 25th nationally in SP+ and an opportunistic +6 turnover margin, while the offense remained solid if unspectacular at 56th. With elite power success in the run game (No. 1 nationally) and a defense that excelled at limiting explosiveness (top 15 in IsoPPP and explosive pass defense), Illinois maximized field position and finishing drives enroute to a season-capping win over South Carolina in the postseason. Illinois Player to Watch West Virginia transfer Hudson Clement accrued 1,221 receiving yards on 16.7 yards per reception for the Mountaineers before transferring to Champagne this offseason. Clement is the favorite to take over Pat Bryant's X-WR sideline role and has the skillset to erupt if given the opportunity. Illinois makes the College Football Playoff if: The offensive line contends for the Joe Moore Award, Luke Altmyer boosts his accuracy, and the RB tandem of Kaden Feagin/Aidan Laughery steamroll opposing defensive fronts. Couple those keys on offense with the following defensive musts: Gabe Jacas has to go nuclear creating havoc on B10 QBs, the experienced secondary has to hold opponents under 200 passing YPG, and Illinois ultimately has to handle business against USC, Indiana and Ohio State. Illinois Win Total at DraftKings: Illinois' line currently rests at 7.5 Wins slanted majorly to the Over at -160. They have the good fortune of avoiding Oregon, Penn State AND Michigan in Big Ten play, truly a gift from the schedule gods. The Illini have a very manageable non-con slate (at Duke, and away home against Western Michigan) while possessing the grit and experience to snuff out lower-level foes including Purdue and Wisconsin on the road, and Maryland and Northwestern in Champaign. I think Illinois takes out at least one of Rutgers (home), Washington (road), USC (home) or Indiana (road) to clear their juiced 7.5 Win line. Oregon Ducks Head Coach: Dan Lanning (4th year) 2024 Record: 13-1 (9-0 B10) Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Lost to Ohio State 41-21 in the CFP Rose Bowl Offense Ranking: 22nd Offensive Returning Starters: 2 Defense Ranking: 15th Defensive Returning Starters: 3 Oregon Team Overview Heading into 2025, Oregon football stands as one of the premier national contenders following a 13–1 campaign and a College Football Playoff appearance in 2024 under Dan Lanning. The Ducks finished 5th in SP+ overall, powered by the No. 2 offense in the country and a Top 15 defense, while leading the nation in résumé SP+ thanks to wins over Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State. Despite a blowout loss in the CFP semifinal rematch with Ohio State, Oregon returns a program identity built on elite passing efficiency (72.8% comp, 10.5 ANY/A), dominant offensive line play (1.4% pressure rate allowed), and a disruptive defense that ranked 14th nationally in havoc rate and 7th in pressure rate. Oregon Player to Watch Freshman phenom WR Dakorian Moore is the No. 1-rated WR recruit in the country and took the Oregon program by storm in the Spring. At a ripe 18 years of age, Moore already looked the part of the best wideout on the team. He will be a focal point of the OU passing attack with Evan Stewart out for the year with a knee tear. Oregon makes the College Football Playoff if: QB Dante Moore finally lives up to his recruiting hype, Tulane transfer RB Makhi Hughes teams with Noah Whittington to form a lethal 1-2 RB combo and Dakorian Moore ascends to WR1 status. Oregon simply needs to hold serve against the middle class of the B10 and take 2 out of their 3 toughest games which are road games at Penn State and at Iowa and a home tilt against Indiana. Oregon Win Total at DraftKings Similar to their main B10 rivals Ohio State and Penn State, Oregon's season long line is set at 10.5 Wins juiced -140 to the Under. They are lucky to avoid Michigan and Ohio State, with their toughest games coming at Happy Valley, at home against Indiana, and at Kinnick Stadium. I'm not laying -140 against Oregon to go Under and instead would prefer to take a flier on +320 to win the Big Ten again. Ohio State Buckeyes Head Coach: Ryan Day (8th year) 2024 Record: 14-2 (7-2 B10) Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Defeated Notre Dame 37-23 to win the National Championship Offense Ranking: 30th Offensive Returning Starters: 5 Defense Ranking: 1st Defensive Returning Starters: 4 Ohio State Team Overview Going into 2025, Ohio State remains one of the premier programs in college football under Ryan Day, coming off a 12-2 season capped by a dominant postseason run with victories over Tennessee and Oregon. The Buckeyes finished No. 1 in SP+, featuring the top overall defense in the nation and a Top 3 offense, despite pacing just 110th in tempo and ranking 117th in plays per game. Defensively, Ohio State overwhelmed opponents with an elite pass rush (1st in pressure rate, 10.4%) and smothering coverage (1st in yards per dropback allowed), while offensively they combined a lethal passing game (70.8% completion rate, 11.4 ANY/A) with a productive rushing attack (5.4 YPC) that thrived on explosive, efficient standard downs. How OSU replaces the avalanche of talent defections will determine how successful their 2025 campaign will be. Ohio State Player to Watch S Caleb Downs is the heart & soul of the OSU defense and a likely Top 10 NFL Draft selection. Downs led the secondary with 67 total tackles and a team-best 90.5% tackle rate while contributing 14 havoc plays. He allowed just 24 yards on 9 targets (33.3% completions) with a microscopic 0.7 Defensive QBR and a phenomenal 44.4% forced incompletion rate. The All-American is a rare, special talent and one of the most impactful college safeties of the last decade. Ohio State makes the College Football Playoff if: New QB Julian Sayin fulfills his five-star prep billing, the James Peoples/CJ Donaldson combo picks up where Quinshon Judkins/TreVeyon Henderson left off, and the defensive line replaces the four departed starters with a talent-laden group that is able to generate havoc plays. Ohio State Win Total at DraftKings OSU is favored to win the Big Ten again at +190, with their season Win mark set at 10.5 (Under -140). With the massive roster churn following the Natty victory, and a tough schedule that includes a pivotal non-conference matchup right out of the chute Week 1 in Columbus against Texas, at home against Penn State and at the Big House in Ann Arbor, I'm taking the Under 10.5 Wins for Ohio State. Penn State Nittany Lions Head Coach: James Franklin (12th year) 2024 Record: 13-3 (7-2 B10) Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Beat Boise State 31-14 in the CFP Fiesta Bowl | Lost to Notre Dame 27-24 in the CFP Orange Bowl Offense Ranking: 26th Offensive Returning Starters: 9 Defense Ranking: 7th Defensive Returning Starters: 5 Penn State Team Overview Heading into 2025, Penn State finds itself firmly entrenched in the national title conversation after a 13–2 season that included a College Football Playoff appearance and a No. 6 finish in SP+. The Nittany Lions paired the nation's No. 7 offense and No. 5 defense to average +21.1 points per game in adjusted scoring margin, dominating with efficiency (3rd in success rate), physicality (Top 10 in stuff rate allowed and yards after contact), and a ferocious defensive front that ranked 4th in DL havoc rate. James Franklin's squad proved battle-tested with wins over USC, Washington, and Boise State, and with elite recruiting and development continuing in Happy Valley, Penn State looks poised to remain a Big Ten and CFP contender in 2025. Penn State Player to Watch QB Drew Allar has flashed NFL Starter upside with his prototype frame (6'5/236) and arm strength but needs to cut down on mistakes (11 INTs). Still, his 66.5% completion rate and 14.7% pressure-to-sack rate offer significant promise for the future. Penn State makes the College Football Playoff if: Allar takes a step, the Offensive Line with four starters back paves the way for another pair of 1,000-yard seasons from Nicholas Singleton (1,015 rushing yards at a next-level 6.46 yards per carry) and Kaytron Allen (1,026 rushing yards on 201 carries), and new DC Jim Knowles tightens up the defense into an elite, dominant unit. Penn State Win Total at DraftKings Penn State is currently trading at 10.5 Wins juiced -150 to the Under, as Penn State assumes status as the favorite in the Big Ten. Major showdowns against Oregon in Happy Valley and at Ohio State are the highlights of the schedule but games at Iowa and at home against Indiana and Nebraska will also keep the Nittany Lions on their toes. While I favor the Nittany Lions to win the Big Ten at +240, there's not enough value for me at that price and would prefer to roll the dice on the Over 10.5 Wins at +125. Is the Big Ten as wide-open as the Big 12? No. However, for the first time in at least ten years, Ohio State and Michigan have company atop the odds board. Enjoy the season. Drew Dinsick and Vaughn Dalzell explain why they like Michigan over 8.5 wins, breaking down the Wolverines' favorable schedule and chances to win the Big Ten and make the College Football Playoff. Vaughn Dalzell and Trysta Krick discuss the favorites for the Biletnikoff Award, including Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith and Alabama's Ryan Williams.
