Succession plans for Iran's Khamenei hit top gear

Straits Times

4 hours ago

DUBAI - The clock's ticking for senior clerics seeking a successor to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
A three-man committee from a top clerical body, appointed by Mr Khamenei himself two years ago to identify his replacement, has accelerated its planning in recent days since Israel attacked Iran and threatened to assassinate the veteran leader, five insiders with knowledge of the discussions told Reuters.
Mr Khamenei, 86, is being regularly briefed on the talks, according to the Iranian sources who requested anonymity to discuss highly sensitive matters.
He has gone into hiding with his family and is being guarded by the Vali-ye Amr special forces unit of the Revolutionary Guards, a top security official said.
The ruling establishment will immediately seek to name a successor to Mr Khamenei if he is killed, to signal stability and continuity, according to the sources who acknowledged that predicting Iran's subsequent political trajectory was difficult.
A new leader will still be chosen for his devotion to the revolutionary precepts of the Islamic Republic's late founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, according to one insider, who is close to Mr Khamenei's office and privy to succession discussions.
At the same time, the top echelon of power is also considering which candidate might present a more moderate face to ward off foreign attacks and internal revolts, the person said.
Two frontrunners have emerged in the succession discussions, the five insiders said: Mr Khamenei's 56-year-old son Mojtaba, long seen as a continuity choice, and a new contender, Mr Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the father of the Islamic revolution.
Mr Khomeini, a close ally of the reformist faction that favours the easing of social and political restrictions, nonetheless commands respect among senior clerics and the Revolutionary Guards because of his lineage, the sources added.
"I once again humbly express that this small and insignificant servant of the Iranian people stands ready to proudly be present on any front or scene you deem necessary," the 53-year-old said in a public message of support to the supreme leader, hours before the US bombed Iran's nuclear facilities.
Mr Khomeini has come into the frame as a serious candidate in June amid the conflict with Israel and the United States because he could represent a more conciliatory choice internationally and domestically than Mr Mojtaba Khamenei, the five people said.
By contrast, Mr Khamenei hews closely to his father's hardline policies, according to the insiders who cautioned that nothing had been determined, candidates could change, and the supreme leader would have the final say.
However, with the military conflict continuing, it remains unclear whether any new leader could be chosen easily or installed securely or if he could assume the level of authority enjoyed by Mr Khamenei, they added.
Israeli strikes have also killed several of Iran's top Revolutionary Guards commanders, potentially complicating a handover of power as the elite military force has long played a central role in enforcing the supreme leader's rule.
Mr Khamenei's office and the Assembly of Experts, the clerical body from which the succession committee was drawn, were not available to comment.
Trump: Khamenei is easy target
Planning for an eventual handover was already in the works because of Mr Khamenei's age and the longstanding health concerns of a leader who has dominated all aspects of Iranian politics for decades, the sources said.
The urgency of the task was underlined in September 2024 when Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, a close ally of Mr Khamenei's, and the planning accelerated significantly in June following the Israeli attacks on nuclear sites, which were followed by the American attacks at the weekend.
"We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding," US President Trump warned on social media last week, calling for Tehran's unconditional surrender. "He is an easy target."
Mr Khamenei hasn't publicly expressed any preference for his successor.
The sources said he had repeatedly opposed the idea of his son taking over, in succession discussions in the past, concerned about any suggestion of Iran returning to the kind of hereditary rule that ended with the ousting of the Shah in 1979.
The role of Supreme Leader was created after the revolution and then enshrined in the Constitution giving a top cleric ultimate authority in guiding the elected president and Parliament.
Officially, the leader is named by the Assembly of Experts, made up of 88 senior clerics who are chosen through a national election in which a hardline watchdog body aligned with Mr Khamenei must approve all the candidates.
"Whether the Islamic Republic survives or not, it will be a very different one, because the context in which it has existed has fundamentally changed," said London-based Iranian political analyst Hossein Rassam, adding that Mr Hassan Khomeini could fit the bill for a leader to take Iran in a new direction.
"The regime has to opt for someone who'll facilitate slow transition."
Mr Hassan Khomeini's close links to the reformist faction of Iranian politics, which pursued an ultimately unsuccessful policy of opening Iran to the outside world in the 1990s, saw hardline officials bar him from running as a member of senior clerical body the Assembly of Experts in 2016.
The succession planners are aware that Mr Khomeini is likely to be more palatable to the Iranian population than a hardliner, the five insiders said.
In 2024, he warned of a "crisis of rising popular dissatisfaction" among Iranians due to poverty and deprivation.
By contrast, Mr Mojtaba Khamenei's views echo those of his father on every major topic from cracking down on opponents to taking a hardline with foreign foes, the sources said - qualities they saw as hazardous with Iran under attack.
A mid-ranking cleric who teaches theology at a religious seminary in the city Qom, the centre of Iranian religious life, Mr Mojtaba has never held a formal position the Islamic Republic, though exercises influence behind the scenes as the gatekeeper to his father, according to Iran watchers.
The US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Mr Mojtaba in 2019, saying he represented the Supreme Leader in "an official capacity despite never being elected or appointed to a government position" aside from working in his father's office.
Other candidates fall away
Several of the candidates long seen as possible successors to Mr Khamenei have already died.
Former presidents Hashemi Rafsanjani passed away in 2017, former judiciary chief Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi died of natural causes in 2018 and former President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash in 2023. Another senior cleric Sadegh Amoli Larijani, has been sidelined.
Others, such as the Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, are still in contention but have fallen behind Mr Mojtaba Khamenei and Mr Hassan Khomeini, the five sources said.
Beyond the most likely candidates, it's also possible that a less prominent cleric could be chosen as a pawn of Revolutionary Guards, said Mr Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group think-tank.
"It is possible that they would put forward a candidate that no one has ever heard of and would not really hold the same levers of power that Ayatollah Khamenei has held now for more than 30 years," he said.
The supreme leader's voice is powerful.
After the death of the Islamic Republic's founder Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, Mr Khamenei was publicly hailed as his predecessor's choice.
Although he had already served as president, Mr Khamenei was only a mid-ranking cleric and was initially dismissed by influential clerics as weak and an unlikely successor to his charismatic predecessor.
However, he steadily tightened his grip to become Iran's unquestioned decision-maker, relying on the Revolutionary Guards as he outmanoeuvred rivals and crushed bouts of popular unrest. REUTERS
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