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Balochistan to Chittagong... Pakistan and Bangladesh on verge of breaking up again, if...

Balochistan to Chittagong... Pakistan and Bangladesh on verge of breaking up again, if...

India.com16-05-2025

Balochistan to Chittagong... Pakistan and Bangladesh on the verge of breaking up again, if...
If recent reports are to be believed, there has been an uproar within the Pakistan Army along with continuous rising voices from many provinces in Pakistan which have become louder during the India-Pakistan conflict. Now ceasefire has been declared between the two countries and the tension on the border has ended. But, the voice of the 'free thinking' people inside Pakistan has become louder and louder.
On the other hand, the voice emerging in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, the south-eastern region of Bangladesh, is now becoming a challenge for the power in Dhaka. Just like the rising voice of Balochistan in Pakistan, the noise of struggle against Bangladesh is also increasing in Chittagong. That is, Chittagong is becoming the Balochistan of Bangladesh. Although the demand for autonomy for Chittagong Hill Tracts has been raised in Bangladesh for decades, but the governments never took it seriously. This neglect is now making Chittagong a rebellious area just like Balochistan has become for Pakistan.
It is important to understand that like Balochistan, Chittagong is also an area rich in minerals, forests and biological resources. In both the places, the local tribal population was suppressed by outsiders. Attempts were made to eliminate their culture, language and identity. Like the Baloch, the identity of the Chakma, Marma and Jumma communities is in crisis. In both the areas, attempts were made to suppress the demand for autonomy by calling it treason. After which the wounds of the people here came to the fore.
However, the situation is even worse for Pakistan. The voices raised in Pakistan are not just for a piece of land. The situation of instability and discontent is at its peak in the four major provinces of Pakistan, Balochistan, Sindh, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
The situation in these provinces can become the basis for the possible partition of Pakistan. Balochistan, which is the largest province of Pakistan in terms of area, has declared itself a separate country and is also pleading for its recognition.
If Pakistan is divided into so many pieces, Balochistan will become rich in natural resources. Sindhistan will emerge with an economic center like Karachi. Punjabistan will emerge as the most powerful unit. At the same time, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and some northern areas will remain in the original Pakistan, which will be unstable and weak.
In such a situation, it seems that history is repeating itself as it was in 1971. Something similar was done by the Mukti Bahini army at the time of Bangladesh's independence and India had supported it and divided Pakistan into two parts. This means that India can once again support the Balochs and break Pakistan like in 1971 and create another independent country, Balochistan. But it is still in the womb of the future what decision the Indian government takes.

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Also Read: Lies, now open sourced: India-Pakistan conflict puts spotlight on open-source intelligence and credibility problem NetBlocks confirmed that access to X in Pakistan was restored precisely as tensions with India escalated, giving Pakistani agencies and allied influencers a wide window to flood the platform with misleading and often provocative posts. In the aftermath of the operation, and as misinformation swirled on social media, India's Press Information Bureau (PIB) Fact Check division stepped in to debunk dozens of viral claims. These included: Videos from Lebanon's 2020 explosion being shared as missile strikes on Indian cities. Drone footage from Jalandhar fires framed as attacks. Game footage falsely portraying Pakistani military success. Recycled images from other conflict zones passed off as Indian casualties. Together, these examples offer a window into the scale, coordination, and intent behind the disinformation campaign, aimed not just at misleading the public but also at distorting the global perception of India's military and political posture. Inside Pakistan's covert spy ring In a related espionage probe, Indian intelligence uncovered a Pakistan-backed operation recruiting social media influencers as spies. Naushaba Shahzad Masood, known as 'Madam N', runs Jaiyana Travels and Tourism in Lahore. She was building a network of 500 spies inside India, focusing on Hindu and Sikh YouTubers like Jyoti Malhotra and Jasbir Singh. In six months, Naushaba arranged travel for about 3,000 Indians and 1,500 expatriates to Pakistan, fast-tracking visas through direct contacts at the Pakistani High Commission in Delhi. She also managed Sikh and Hindu pilgrimage tours with the Evacuee Trust Property Board (ETPB), charging inflated fees that funded ISI propaganda. Financial trails include Naushaba's phone number found on arrested spies' devices and two Pakistani bank accounts linked to transfers from India. Her network recruits through agents operating in major Indian cities, including Delhi. Open-source intelligence: Boon or bane? The situation also highlighted the double-edged nature of Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT). Originally conceived to empower citizens through satellite images, open data, and social media monitoring, OSINT's decentralised model became a tool for mass manipulation. 'Anyone with an internet connection could now pose as an OSINT expert,' observed an analysis published by ET. The danger lies in viral misinformation being passed off as expert assessments, especially when retweeted by influencers and news outlets under pressure for real-time content. Newsrooms under fire Some Indian newsrooms too fell for the deluge of fake news. According to The Washington Post, in one case, a journalist reportedly received a WhatsApp message, allegedly from a public broadcaster, claiming that Pakistan's army chief had been arrested. Within minutes, this falsehood became prime-time 'breaking news.' Speaking to The Post, Former Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao described the atmosphere as one of 'hypernationalism' and 'parallel reality,' cautioning that the lack of authoritative government briefings created a vacuum often filled by speculation. But not everyone was misled. Also Read: India's Press Information Bureau, along with a 24/7 monitoring centre set up by the Ministry of Information & Broadcasting, worked to counter misinformation in real time. Fact-checks were issued, social media handles were flagged, and broadcasters were warned for violating verification norms. Cyber Frontline: 1.5 million attacks, but only 150 breaches While social media churned with false claims, the real-time cyber threat was no less intense. According to Maharashtra Cyber, over 1.5 million cyber attacks were launched against Indian infrastructure by seven Pakistan-allied Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) groups. The barrage of cyberattacks not only came from the neighbouring country but from Bangladesh and the Middle Eastern region. Pro-Pakistan hacker collectives such as APT 36 (also known as Transparent Tribe), Pakistan Cyber Force, and Team Insane PK launched a coordinated series of cyberattacks in the days surrounding the crisis. Their arsenal included malware campaigns, distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks, GPS spoofing attempts, and website defacements aimed at sowing panic and disrupting public trust in India's digital infrastructure. According to officials familiar with the matter, India faced over 1.5 million intrusion attempts during this period. However, only 150 attacks were successful, a tiny fraction. Importantly, claims that the hackers had penetrated Mumbai's airport systems or Election Commission portals were found to be baseless. Addressing reporters, a senior official of Maharashtra Cyber debunked claims of hackers stealing data from Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport in Mumbai, hacking aviation and municipal systems, and targeting the Election Commission website. "The probe discovered that cyber attacks on (government websites in) India decreased after India-Pakistan ceased hostilities, but not fully stopped. These attacks continue from Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Morocco, and Middle Eastern countries," he said. The Indian government's 'Road of Sindoor' report, a classified cyber threat assessment, showed these attacks were part of a coordinated hybrid warfare strategy involving both digital and psychological warfare. India's response While the information war raged online, Indian armed forces maintained disciplined silence and strategic clarity. Official statements were sparse, but targeted. Operation Sindoor focused solely on dismantling terrorist infrastructure, confirmed in a press conference by Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, who clarified that India did not target civilian installations. Behind the scenes, India's cyber defence grid was activated, fact-checking units expanded, and social media protocols for military updates tightened. The government also advised citizens to avoid unverified content and rely only on official sources. AI fact-checkers As the misinformation torrent intensified, social media users increasingly turned to AI chatbots for verification, only to find more confusion and falsehoods. Platforms like xAI's Grok, OpenAI's ChatGPT, and Google's Gemini became common go-to tools for instant fact-checking amid the crisis. 'Hey @Grok, is this true?' became a viral plea on Elon Musk's platform X, reflecting the surge in users seeking quick debunks. However, these AI assistants often propagated misinformation themselves. Grok, under renewed criticism for inserting far-right conspiracy theories into unrelated answers, misidentified old video footage from Sudan's Khartoum airport as missile strikes on Pakistan's Nur Khan airbase during the conflict. Similarly, unrelated fire footage from Nepal was wrongly claimed as Pakistani military retaliation. McKenzie Sadeghi of the disinformation watchdog NewsGuard warned, 'The growing reliance on Grok as a fact-checker comes as X and other major tech companies have scaled back investments in human fact-checkers. Our research has repeatedly found that AI chatbots are not reliable sources for news and information, particularly when it comes to breaking news.' The Tow Center for Digital Journalism at Columbia University found that AI chatbots were 'generally bad at declining to answer questions they couldn't answer accurately, offering incorrect or speculative answers instead.' For instance, AFP fact-checkers in Uruguay asked Google's Gemini about an AI-generated image of a woman; it confirmed the image's authenticity but fabricated details about her identity and location. Truth is the first casualty, but not the last word The digital front of the India-Pakistan standoff reveals the complex landscape of modern warfare, where victory is measured not just in ground gained but in narrative controlled. Yet despite the storm of falsehoods, India's response, though understated, was layered, methodical, and largely effective. As the lines between social media warfare and statecraft blur, it's clear that the next great conflict won't just be fought with missiles, but with memes, metadata, and misinformation.

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