Donald Trump 'In Denial' About Job Figures, Economy—Nate Silver
Pollster Nate Silver on Sunday called out President Donald Trump's reaction to the latest data about jobs, accusing him of "denialism" and warning that it won't help him fix the nation's slowing economy.
"Firing the BLS commissioner won't prevent the effects of tariffs. But it will reduce American economic leadership and increase uncertainty for businesses, workers and investors," Silver wrote in his newsletter, referring to Trump's decision to fire Erika McEntarfer, commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), after the agency published a weaker-than-expected jobs report for July.
Silver stressed that U.S. economic data remains reliable, as it is meticulously documented and regularly revised "because measuring something as complex as the modern American economy is an incredibly challenging task."
"I'm not sure exactly where firing the BLS commissioner ranks on the list of Trump-related outrages," Silver wrote. "Even if Congress does its job and McEntarfer replaced with another competent successor, this could have a chilling effect on BLS and other government agencies to operate independently."
Newsweek has reached out to the White House by email on Sunday outside of normal business hours for comment.
Why It Matters
Trump's decision to fire McEntarfer has sent shockwaves throughout the country, with economists and Democratic lawmakers criticizing the move. Some have accused Trump of trying to "kill the messenger" over heavy revisions to May and June's job numbers, which removed 258,000 jobs previously announced in those months.
This followed the July jobs report, which reported 73,000 jobs added, which is well short of the projected 100,000 jobs. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.2 percent.
The firing of a high-level labor statistician after the release of adverse economic data raised alarms about the politicization of nonpartisan agencies and reliability of official U.S. economic statistics. Experts and lawmakers stressed that the integrity of the BLS is central to public trust and informed economic decision-making.
What To Know
Silver, the founder of 538 and one of the most prominent polling experts in last year's presidential election, wrote in his newsletter that July's jobs report has suggested a slowing economy and "Trump is in denial about it."
"Each monthly payrolls figure is actually revised three times: once in each of the first two months after initial publication (so July's 73,000 figure will be re-reported in August and then again in September) and then again each January as part of the BLS's annual benchmark revisions," Silver wrote.
He argued that the jobs report often only receives attention at the initial announcement, with politicians and news media treating the figure as a simple "beat" or "bust" factor relative to the initial estimate, and that not enough attention is given to the regular cycle of "large revisions and the difficulties in estimation."
"All of this feels a little too familiar: it's the same thing that happens when news organizations breathlessly report polling data without considering the margin of error and other challenges for surveys," Silver wrote.
He noted that revisions during every month of Trumps' second administration have seen negative revisions, which he wrote is "actually common enough" and that it's more important to look at the trend of revision from month-to-month.
Those trends help experts and analysts understand if they're seeing sampling errors or statistical biases in the numbers, which can occur also in the event of an economy facing "some sort of trauma or disruption."
Silver also wrote that any attempt to undermine Trump would be better executed by reporting the lower estimates instead of revising them down later, since "revisions don't usually get as much media attention as the headline figures," and that "the May and June revisions are relatively pedestrian."
"The largest change ever to an initial jobs figure ever after two months came in March 2020 as the pandemic hit American shores; initially reported as a job loss of 700,000, it was later revised to nearly 1.4 million instead," he wrote.
President Donald Trump departs the White House en route to Bedminster, New Jersey, on August 1 in Washington, D.C.
President Donald Trump departs the White House en route to Bedminster, New Jersey, on August 1 in Washington, D.C.
Andrew Thomas/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images
What People Are Saying
President Donald Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Sunday: "Head of the Bureau of of Labor Statistics did the same thing just before the Presidential Election, when she lifted the numbers for jobs to an all time high. I then won the Election, anyway, and she readjusted the numbers downward, calling it a mistake, of almost one million jobs. A SCAM! She did it again, with another massive 'correction,' and got FIRED! She had the biggest miscalculations in over 50 years."
Trump also wrote on Truth Social on Friday: "McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months. Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative. The Economy is BOOMING under 'TRUMP' despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates, where they lowered them twice, and substantially, just before the Presidential Election, I assume in the hopes of getting 'Kamala' elected – How did that work out? Jerome 'Too Late' Powell should also be put "out to pasture." Thank you for your attention to this matter!"
Ernie Tedeschi, the former head of Yale University's Budget Lab, wrote on X on Friday about McEntarfer's firing: "I've worked closely with Erika. I know of no economist who is more data-focused & devoted to truth in statistics. She never shied from speaking truth to power when the data were disappointing. Nothing would be worse for US credibility than political meddling in our economic data."
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