The fantasy football quarterbacks to draft … and those to avoid

New York Times

5 hours ago

Every year on their draft day, fantasy football managers are guided by rankings, sometimes aggregate rankings or the default rankings from their fantasy game platform. However, rankings don't necessarily illustrate the value drops between consecutively ranked players, and using the same rankings as everyone else in your league provides zero advantage over other managers. Tip 1: Choose your favorite ranker (me!). Tip 2: Locate the value cliffs at each position and compare positional values. You can do this easily using our charts below.
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Today, we're talking quarterbacks, but before diving too deep, read our primer on value cliffs, which we're calling 'Chasms of Doom.' [Link]
To win each week, you want to create as much of an advantage as you can in each position group. While Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen were ranked No. 1 and 2 last year, Jackson provided a 50-point edge over Allen during the season and a 100-point advantage over QB6 Jared Goff. But Goff's advantage over QB7, Bo Nix, was fewer than 7 points, and only 16 points over QB9 Sam Darnold. So, if you waited to draft Darnold (or picked him up later off waivers), how many higher-producing skill-position players could you have drafted between when Goff was drafted and when Darnold got picked (up)? More importantly, what does that mean for this year?
Using my Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) QB projections, you can clearly observe these positional value drop zones/chasms of doom ahead of the 2025 fantasy draft.
The top tier consists of the same four as my rankings — Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts. The difference is Joe Burrow sits in his own tier just under the top four. Burrow offers the highest ceiling-plus-floor combination of any quarterback whose value lies mainly in their passing numbers.
It's interesting to see the difference after that, as my rankings Tier 3 is quite large — more on that below — and why my strategy is to either get a Top 5 quarterback or wait until the draft end game. The projections tiers (and drop-offs) suggest being a bit more aggressive in Tier 2 (here), and I'm okay with that … if the cost is a Round 7-8 price. And that's the highest I'd go, because I'm often still finding too much RB or WR value to take my quarterback in those rounds.
The visualization — which illustrates the drop in VORP from one player to the next — would suggest Lamar Jackson falls in a tier of his own with Burrow alongside Justin Fields and Baker Mayfield. This is where context matters around the projections.
I give Burrow more credit, as Fields obviously carries a lot of risk, and Mayfield brings some concern as well given another new offensive coordinator and the uncertainty of his rushing upside — was 2024 real or a one-year blip?
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You can also see how small the general decline is after Mayfield, but it's also cautionary. Once you get to QB15 (Trevor Lawrence), you're giving up about 2 fantasy points per game (FPPG). My rankings (and tiers) differ from the projections, as they include risk assessment and upside chasing. (You can see those differences via our customizable draft cheat sheet.)
When I'm taking a quarterback, I never aim to get QB11. As shown by the projections, that's almost pointless given the replaceability. Once the Top 5 are gone, I'm waiting, and I'm drafting someone with Top 5 upside, even if there is a mere 10% chance of that coming to fruition. That's why I have Drake Maye (QB16 based on the projections), Bryce Young (24) and a few others higher in the rankings, and Trevor Lawrence a tad lower. In this case, even Lawrence's best-case scenario likely peaks as QB9-10, whereas Maye has a Top 5 ceiling, though I'd never bet on it.
Again, the goal is to get a distinct advantage at a position, and you can see how a Top 5, even Top 7, quarterback is one way to get that foothold. But before you say, 'Well, then I have to go get Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, etc. or nothing at all,' remember how Baker Mayfield made that jump last year, and Jayden Daniels debuted there. The same surprises occur almost any year. We regularly see 1-2 quarterbacks inside the Top 7 for seasonal scoring who 1) have never been there, 2) debut there, or 3) see a rebound season. Those three types are what I'm aiming to draft in the late rounds when I'm unable to get a Top 5 option early.
(Photo of Joe Burrow: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)