Shopping for agreement: the truth about financial advice
Often, we're shopping for agreement, looking for someone to bless the choice we were leaning toward all along.
So suggests a recent study, Motivated Advice Seeking: Are Advice Seekers Trying to Be More Accurate?, which says we don't want better advice, but better justification.
Across five studies on real-world decision-making, many involving financial trade-offs – from quitting a job to covering medical bills, booking a holiday or renovating a kitchen – researchers found that people seek out advisers they believe will agree with them. They also frame questions in biased ways, emphasising the option they secretly hope to hear endorsed.
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Advisers pick up on these cues, resulting in advice being 'co-created by both motivated advisees and motivated advisers'.
Result: a feedback loop where confidence goes up, but decision quality doesn't. In financial terms, that can mean wasted money, missed opportunities or preventable regret.
In short, it's less about clarity than comfort. Next time you seek financial advice, ask yourself: am I looking for advice or affirmation?
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Irish Times
3 days ago
- Irish Times
Trump extends China truce for 90 days, averting tariff hike
US President Donald Trump extended a pause of sky-high tariffs on Chinese goods for another 90 days into early November, stabilising trade ties between the world's two largest economies. Mr Trump signed an order late on Monday extending the truce through November 10th, deferring a tariff hike set for Tuesday. The de-escalation first took effect when the US and China agreed to reduce tit-for-tat tariff hikes and ease export restrictions on rare earth magnets and certain technologies. 'All other elements of the agreement will remain the same,' Mr Trump said in a Truth Social post, suggesting no planned changes to US trade policy or to the terms of the arrangement. A fact sheet, posted by the White House, didn't detail any modifications beyond the date extension. China, in a similar statement, said it too would extend its own suspension for a further 90 days. Negotiators from both sides reached a preliminary agreement to keep the deal last month in Sweden. Had the truce not been extended, US tariffs on Chinese goods would have jumped to at least 54 per cent starting after midnight in New York. The extension will ease worries of a renewed tariff war that threatens to choke off trade between the US and China. An escalation between Washington and Beijing earlier this year shook global financial markets. It will also give the countries more time to discuss other unresolved issues, such as duties tied to fentanyl trafficking that Mr Trump has levied on Beijing, American concerns about Chinese purchases of sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil and disagreements around US business operations in China. The signing may clear the path for Mr Trump to visit China to meet President Xi Jinping in late October, around the time of an international meeting in South Korea that the US leader is likely to attend. 'The United States continues to have discussions with the PRC [Pepole's Republic of China] to address the lack of trade reciprocity in our economic relationship and our resulting national and economic security concerns,' Mr Trump wrote in the order. 'Through these discussions, the PRC continues to take significant steps toward remedying non-reciprocal trade arrangements and addressing the concerns of the United States relating to economic and national security matters.' Mr Trump, speaking to reporters earlier Monday, said 'we've been dealing very nicely with China.' Mr Trump earlier this year ratcheted up tariffs on Chinese goods, and Beijing responded in kind. US tariffs on Chinese imports ultimately reached 145 per cent, and China curbed access to magnets critical to US manufacturers. The two sides reached a 90-day truce in May, under which the US lowered its China duties to 30 per cent while Beijing reduced levies on US goods to 10 per cent and agreed to resume rare earth exports. Mr Trump's willingness to parlay with China has prompted concerns from national security hawks that he's unwilling to crack down on the US's biggest geopolitical rival. Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices reached deals with the Trump administration on Monday to secure export licenses by agreeing to pay 15 per cent of their revenues from certain Chinese artificial intelligence chip sales to the US government. The president also signalled openness to separately allowing Nvidia to sell a scaled-back version of its most advanced AI chip to China, saying that 'it's possible I'd make a deal'. However, Chinese authorities are understood to have urged local companies to avoid using Nvidia's H20 processors, particularly for government-related purposes. With the deadline nearing, Mr Trump on Sunday had called on Beijing to quadruple purchases of US soybeans, something he said would help reduce the US trade deficit with China. The decision to extend the truce follows two days of discussions in Stockholm in July led by US treasury secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese vice premier He Lifeng – the third round of talks between Washington and Beijing in less than three months. While Chinese officials and the Communist Party's official newspaper had signalled satisfaction with the Stockholm talks, and US Cabinet secretaries predicted an extension, the pact remained fragile. Mr Bessent had said that any decision to extend the deal would be up to Mr Trump. Rare Earths At issue in the ongoing dialogue is how the two countries will seek to maintain a stable trading relationship while applying barriers like tariffs and export controls to limit each other's progress in critical sectors including battery technology, defence and semiconductors. Both sides have been taking steps to turn down the temperature and reduce flashpoints recently, with Chinese exports of rare earth magnets starting to recover in June and the US saying it would approve shipments of a semiconductor used for artificial intelligence that it had blocked. US trade representative Jamieson Greer, who participated in the Stockholm negotiations, has sounded an optimistic note on discussions with China over rare earth flows, saying that the US had secured commitments about their supply. 'We're focused on making sure that magnets from China to the United States and the adjacent supply chain can flow as freely as it did before the control,' Mr Greer told CBS's Face the Nation in a recent interview. 'And I would say we're about halfway there.' Flows of rare earth magnets from China to the US rose to 353 tons in June, up from just 46 tons in May, according to the latest customs data. Total shipments were still substantially lower than before Beijing launched export controls in early April. Sales of advanced AI chips remain an issue, despite Mr Trump's decision to relax export controls. Chinese authorities in late July summoned Nvidia to discuss alleged security vulnerabilities related to its H20 chips. China-US negotiations have been on a separate track from other talks the Trump administration has held with trading partners as it moves to implement sweeping so-called reciprocal tariffs and industry-specific levies on other economies. Trump's 30 per cent duties are comprised of a 20 per cent levy tied to fentanyl and a 10 per cent baseline charge. That's on top of existing tariffs on certain Chinese products from his first term. – Bloomberg
Irish Times
6 days ago
- Irish Times
VitHit founder Gary Lavin: from insolvency in 2007 to selling 45m bottles in 18 markets, including New York
Gary Lavin is the founder and chairman of VitHit, a low-calorie, low-sugar vitamin drink brand. Each drink is blended with real juice to deliver flavours while keeping sugar intake low. The company employs 30 people and the brand is available in 18 markets worldwide. In 2025, VitHit will sell more than 45 million bottles, continuing a growth trend of 18 per cent annually since 2020. What vision/light-bulb moment prompted you to start up in business? In 1999, as a professional rugby player, I was surrounded by sugary sports drinks that were marketed as healthy but packed with sugar. I realised the gap: people wanted healthier options that actually tasted good. That was the light-bulb moment: to create a drink that combined vitamins, tea and fruit juice with low sugar and great taste. What is unique about your business model? VitHit operates as a health-focused functional beverage brand. We combine vitamins, tea infusions and natural juice with minimal sugar, offering real functionality without compromising on taste. What makes us unique is our formula: low-calorie, low-sugar, vitamin-rich drinks that people actually want to drink. READ MORE What was your back-to-the-wall moment? In 2007 the company was insolvent. I had to make our sales team redundant and take over 100 per cent of the sales myself. I drove across the country for 18 months and personally sold the product into 3,500 stores. It gave me an insight into our customers' needs while rescuing the company's finances. What moment/deal would you cite as a game changer for the company? Once we had proved the concept of the brand across Ireland, we needed a more efficient way of getting the brand to the people. In 2008, we signed a national distribution agreement with a large distributor in Ireland. Sales increased tenfold and allowed me to finance the brand expansion overseas. Best and the worst pieces of advice you received when starting out? The worst advice came from almost everyone: 'If it's not working, just give up and try something else.' Deep down, I knew I was on to something when I launched the company back in 2000. I believed that once people realised that they could choose VitHit over sugary drinks, they wouldn't look back. That belief kept me going when others told me to quit. The best advice came from my father. His mantra was: 'Love many, trust few, always paddle your own canoe.' It's simple but powerful: embrace life, be cautious in business, and take charge of your own journey. That mindset has guided me through every high and low. To what extent does your business trade internationally? We currently sell in 18 countries and are proud to be the market leader in our category across Britain, Ireland, Iceland and Belgium. We've also built a strong presence in Australia, the UAE, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, France and Norway. Describe your growth funding path. Our proudest achievement is still being entirely self-funded. We have never taken in any outside investment, which can be challenging at the start but worth it in the long run. How will your market look in three years and where would you like your business to be? While we were the first vitamin drink in Europe in 2000, there are hundreds of new brands targeting health. We see this as a real positive. Each new brand broadens the customer base and increases awareness in health. What are your annual revenues and profits? VitHit sells more than 40 million bottles annually with strong double-digit margins. The company has been profitable for over 10 years and has grown 18 per cent annually for the last five years. What are you doing to disrupt, innovate and improve your products? Three years ago, we expanded our range with a sparkling VitHit can. Then, 18 months ago, we launched an all-natural effervescent pouch designed to upgrade your water. Right now, we're developing new flavours. What impact have Donald Trump's tariffs had on your business? The US is a challenging market for soft drinks, largely due to the significant investment required to launch and scale. That said, we've established a strong presence in New York and Virginia and continue to grow through strategic local partnerships. While policy volatility such as tariffs does introduce additional risk and cost, our global strategy isn't heavily reliant on the US market.
Irish Times
07-08-2025
- Irish Times
Trump's higher tariff rates kick in, hitting goods from major trading partners
President Donald Trump's higher tariff rates of 10 per cent to 50 per cent on dozens of trading partners kicked in on Thursday, testing his strategy for shrinking US trade deficits without large disruptions to global supply chains, higher inflation and stiff retaliation from trading partners. US Customs and Border Protection agency began collecting the higher tariffs at 12.01am EDT (0401 GMT) after weeks of suspense over Mr Trump's final tariff rates and frantic negotiations with major trading partners that sought to lower them. Goods loaded on to US-bound vessels and in transit before the midnight deadline can enter at lower prior tariff rates before October 5th, according to a CBP notice to shippers issued this week. Imports from many countries had previously been subject to a baseline 10 per cent import duty after Mr Trump paused higher rates announced in early April. But since then, Trump has frequently modified his tariff plan, slapping some countries with much higher rates, including 50 per cent for goods from Brazil, 39 per cent from Switzerland, 35 per cent from Canada and 25 per cent from India. He announced a separate 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods on Wednesday to be imposed in 21 days over the South Asian country's purchases of Russian oil. Ahead of the deadline, Mr Trump heralded the 'billions of dollars' that will flow into the US, largely from countries that he said had taken advantage of the United States. 'THE ONLY THING THAT CAN STOP AMERICA'S GREATNESS WOULD BE A RADICAL LEFT COURT THAT WANTS TO SEE OUR COUNTRY FAIL!' Mr Trump said on Truth Social. Eight major trading partners accounting for about 40 per cent of US trade flows have reached framework deals for trade and investment concessions with Mr Trump, including the European Union, Japan and South Korea, reducing their base tariff rates to 15 per cent. Britain won a 10 per cent rate, while Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan and the Philippines secured rate reductions to 19 per cent or 20 per cent. 'For those countries, it's less bad news,' said William Reinsch, a senior fellow and trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. 'There'll be some supply chain rearrangement. There'll be a new equilibrium. Prices here will go up, but it'll take a while for that to show up in a major way,' Mr Reinsch said. Countries with punishingly high duties, such as India and Canada, 'will continue to scramble around trying to fix this,' he added. Mr Trump's order has specified that any goods determined to have been trans-shipped from a third country to evade higher US tariffs will be subject to an additional 40 per cent import duty, but his administration has released few details on how these goods would be identified or the provision enforced. Mr Trump's July 31st tariff order imposed duties above 10 per cent on 67 trading partners, while the rate was kept at 10 per cent for those not listed. These import taxes are one part of a multilayered tariff strategy that includes national security-based sectoral tariffs on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, autos, steel, aluminium, copper, lumber and other goods. Trump said on Wednesday the microchip duties could reach 100 per cent. China is on a separate tariff track and will face a potential tariff increase on August 12th unless Trump approves an extension of a prior truce after talks last week in Sweden. He has said he may impose additional tariffs over China's purchases of Russian oil as he seeks to pressure Moscow into ending its war in Ukraine. Financial markets largely shrugged off the new tariffs, with stock markets in Asia at or near record highs while the dollar dipped slightly. Mr Trump has touted the vast increase in federal revenues from his import tax collections, which are ultimately paid by companies importing the goods and consumers of end products. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said that US tariff revenues could top $300 billion a year. The move will drive average US tariff rates to around 20 per cent, the highest in a century and up from 2.5 per cent when Trump took office in January, the Atlantic Institute estimates. Commerce Department data released last week showed more evidence that tariffs began driving up US prices in June, including for home furnishings and durable household equipment, recreational goods and motor vehicles. Costs from Mr Trump's tariff war are mounting for a wide swath of companies, including bellwethers Caterpillar, Marriott, Molson Coors and Yum Brands. All told, global companies that have reported earnings so far this quarter are looking at a hit of around $15 billion to profits in 2025, Reuters' global tariff tracker shows. – Reuters
