Tanzania's threats to South Africa's agricultural exports are possibly misguided
By Thabile Nkunjana
On the second week of April 2025, South Africa woke up to a surprise that Tanzania's Minister of Agriculture was contemplating to introduce measures to prohibit South African agricultural products from entering the Tanzanian market.
This was rather unexpected that Tanzania threatens South Africa about banning its agricultural products that are headed to that country, as well as those that are transiting to its surrounding countries via Dar as Salaam port.
This was unexpected because Tanzania's Agriculture Minister, Honourable Mr Hussein Bashe, handled the issue simultaneously to that of Malawi. Malawi and Tanzania have experienced several restrictions together.
For example, Tanzanian maize has been prohibited from entering Malawi due to concerns about Lethal Necrosis (MLN) in late 2023. More recently, flour and rice have been restricted, while Tanzanian bananas are the only product restricted to South Africa.
For several reasons, it is incorrect to compare the restrictions placed on Tanzanian products in South Africa and Malawi. "These measures are to protect the economy of our farmers, the dignity of our country, and fairness in regional trade," for instance, Minister Bashe stated.
First, after India, South Africa is Tanzania's second-largest export market globally. With the exception of 2021, when the UAE was the top market, South Africa has been in Tanzania's top two markets for the previous 20 years.
South Africa accounted for 8%, or $122.2 million, of Tanzania's $1.4 billion in overall exports to the globe in 2004. Also, with a 15% market share, or $1.1bn, South Africa was the second-largest buyer of Tanzania's $7.2bn in total exports to the world as of 2023.
Second, Tanzania's agricultural sector is expanding, but when comparing the two countries agricultural sectors hence exports, the difference is way too large. As a results, it's improbable to think that these two countries always would have equal trade benefit with one other because sectors size and traded commodities do impact trade.
For example, Tanzania's total agricultural export revenue in 2023 was less than the export revenue from only three South African commodities in 2024: maize, freshgrapes, and oranges, which amounted to $2.4bn when combined. Additionally, in 2023, South Africa accounted for 1%, or $33.2m, ofTanzania's $2.3bn in agricultural exports to the globe, while Tanzania accounted for 1%, or $74.3m, of South Africa's $13.2bn in agricultural exports.
Tobacco, coffee, sesame seeds, cashew nuts, pigeon peas, rice, cotton, groundnuts, cocoa, and avocados are some of Tanzania's most popular agricultural exports. But South Africa imports key Tanzanian exportable products, particularly those that it can't produce well, like coffee, or for which there is a limited availability during a given time frame.
This is true, for instance, of avocados, which South Africa imports annually from October through the end of January and depends on Tanzania for this period.
At least 95% of Tanzania's exports of macadamia nuts were destined for South Africa in 2023, also for 54% of the $51.6m worth of coffee husks and skins,16% of tobacco refuse, 11% of fruit seeds, 9% of black fermented tea, 9% of bonesand horn-cores, 8% of cotton waste, 8% of spices, and 4% of decaffeinated coffee.
Thirdly, the WTO recognises that the agricultural sector is typically sensitive and is handled as such in international trade; as a result, it has provisions for countries to implement temporary measures that are meant to protect the safety of certain industries and consumers. This includes safeguarding against diseases or industries that are at their infancy stage.
However, when countries assert one of these problems, evidence is needed. Several industries in South Africa have suffered from diseases that pose a threat, such as "Goss Wilt", which was recently found in maize from major regions that produce the country's maize and threatens food security and one of the most vital commodities for South Africa's exports.
Another industry that was nearly destroyed by Panama Disease years ago was the banana industry, which also happens to be the commodity that Tanzania wants to export to South Africa.
Since then, South Africa's banana industry has continued to have certain difficulties, and the country is increasingly becoming a net importer, importing about 200 000 tons in 2024 compared to 2 000 tons in early 2000.Additionally, it is incorrect to associate the avocado dispute that occurred some time ago with the banana dispute between the two countries.
South Africa depends on Tanzania to supply avocados at the end of each year and the beginning of the next as already mentioned. Therefore, South Africa had no justification for prohibiting avocado imports from Tanzania other than the need to meet certain requirements.
South Africa too must export its products in accordance with both country and international regulations. For example, South African farmers have been waiting for20 years to satisfy the requirements needed to supply meat to the Saudi Arabian market, and the most recent example is the 16-year wait to export apples to Thailand.
Africa should observe and learn from the current trade war between the United States and China in order to improve regional integration; otherwise, the African Continental Free Trade Area would remain a farfetched dream.
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