Nuclear weapons: Which country's arsenal is growing fastest?

Euronews

6 hours ago

The era of nuclear disarmament appears to have come to an end, experts at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) warned this week.
Amid widespread global tensions and regional conflicts, researchers say the number of nuclear weapons appears to have gone up in the past 12 months.
The nuclear weapon stockpile is now estimated at 9,614 available warheads - 0.3% more compared to 2024. The total is 12,241, including retired warheads.
"By the end of 2024 nuclear disarmament appeared more elusive than at any point since the end of the Cold War", says SIPRI, "especially since strategic dialogue between Russia and the United States has effectively ceased".
China's nuclear program is growing faster than any other country thanks to "significant modernisation and expansion work", the report says.
Beijing is currently building new silos for its intercontinental ballistic missiles (IBM) in three large fields in the north of the country as well as in three mountainous areas in the central east.
Since 2023, its arsenal has expanded by 100 new nukes per year, reaching 600 in 2025, making it the world's third-largest stockpile.
However, the vast majority of China's warheads are thought to be stored separately from their launchers.
By the end of the decade, the country, which is currently the world's second-largest military spender after the US, could have at least as many ICBMs as either Russia or Washington, although its stockpile is still expected to remain smaller than theirs.
Tensions undermined dialogue between China and the US on nuclear-weapon-related issues due to the American support for Taiwan as well as economic sanctions against China.
Russia and the US still hold almost 90% of all nuclear weapons.
"Both states are implementing extensive modernisation programmes that could increase the size and diversity of their arsenals in the future." says SIPRI.
"If no new agreement is reached to cap their stockpiles, the number of warheads they deploy on strategic missiles seems likely to increase after the bilateral 2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) expires in February 2026.
In any case, SIPRI analysts say Russia's nuclear modernisation effort has endured a test failure and a further delay for the New Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile.
Additionally, upgrades of other systems are progressing more slowly than anticipated.
In the US, on the other hand, authorities are under pressure by nuclear advocates to keep up with China's new developments.
The US could ramp up its capabilities by reactivating empty launchers, increasing its non-strategic nuclear weapons and deploying more warheads to existing launchers.
In Europe, France has the largest nuclear arsenal, with 290 weapons - almost all of them are combat-ready.
In 2024, Paris continued its development program of third-generation submarine-launched nuclear missiles as well as a new air-launched cruise missile.
Like France, the UK has committed to scaling up its maritime nuclear abilities by building four new nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines.
Although the country is believed not to have increased its arsenal last year, which currently stands at 225 nukes, a few weeks ago the government announcednew investments in up to 12 new nuclear-powered submarines as part of the AUKUS programme.
Authorities said that's "in response to the rapidly increasing threats".
The investment is part of a £15 billion (€17.5bn) budget in the country's warhead programme.
Larysa Hnatchenko has been at the helm of Slobidskyi Kray, the Kharkiv region's oldest newspaper, for more than 14 years.
However, following the Trump administration's decision to slash 90% of USAID grants in January, she has been doing something she did not expect she would have to do, just to keep working.
Hnatchenko has been dipping into her personal savings to ensure the publication's survival — using her money to pay salaries, office rent and fuel expenses.
"On top of this all, we were already owed two months' money when they paused the funding," she told Euronews.
While most of Slobidskyi Kray's team left Kharkiv in February 2022 following Russia's full-scale invasion, they returned after the city's liberation, committed to continuing reporting.
The team began organising the distribution of 3,000 newspapers each week — for free — to humanitarian hubs located in 20 communities across the Kharkiv region.
"The goal of distributing the newspapers was not to generate a profit, but to ensure that people living in occupied territories and front-line regions got the news," Hnatchenko said.
"It's impossible to offer a subscription service in these areas, because people don't know where they will be from one day to the next due to the constant shelling."
"Many grandmothers would walk to humanitarian hubs by foot as they were determined to get the newspaper," added Hnatchenko.
This has now come to a halt due to a lack of funds. US grants previously made up 50% of the Slobidskyi Kray's funding — while nine out of 10 local Ukrainian outlets were also heavily reliant on USAID.
Hnatchenko fears that cuts to USAID are playing into the hands of the Kremlin, leaving many vulnerable individuals who are exposed to Russian disinformation, with no alternative news sources.
"It's a real issue, we can no longer afford to deliver our newspapers to areas which have no electricity or access to Ukrainian news. Many occupied and frontline territories also do not have Ukrainian signal but instead Russian signal, which is a trap," said Hnatchenko.
While Ukraine's media market has proven resilient, a report conducted by the media monitoring organisation Reporters Sans Frontières (RSF) prior to the axing of USAID funding found that Ukrainian media outlets needed $96 million (€86.3 million) over a three-year period to cover their costs.
'There are no current figures on how many Ukrainian media outlets have had to close down since the end of USAID, but we know that more 330 outlets have had to shut down since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine,' Pauline Maufrais, Ukraine area manager for RSF, told Euronews.
'Russian propaganda outlets rejoiced in the end of USAID because it weakens the coverage from Ukrainian outlets especially in areas which are close to the front,' said Maufrais.
In January, RSF published an investigation into the International Reporters outlet, which publishes Moscow's propaganda and sends its contributors — such as French citizen and naturalised Russian national Christelle Néant — to interview the local population in occupied eastern Ukraine, including Avdiivka and Mariupol.
The International Reporters outlet is just one of the many Kremlin-funded propaganda networks, which use foreign propagandists to justify Russia's invasion of Ukraine internationally.
"If there are fewer journalists in the Ukrainian media because there are not enough financial resources to pay them back, this means that less topics will be covered," said Maufrais.
'Since USAID cuts, media outlets are able to hire fewer freelancers, staffers have lost their jobs, but it also means that there is less coverage on the ground coming out from Ukraine."
"Some outlets are running with only a few weeks of financing left, while others have said they can online survive until June," Maufrais added.
Vgoru Media, based in Kherson — a city on the front lines of the war which was occupied by Russia for a period of nine months — previously relied on USAID to fund 80% of its projects.
"We have had to cut big projects, such as our documentary telling the story of women who were kidnapped and tortured by Russia, as all the funding was from USAID," Ustyn Danchuk, head of video journalism at Gwara Media told Euronews.
"We had already made 60% of the film when the cuts were implemented — but we hadn't even been paid for that work," he explained.
Many Vgoru journalists left Kherson when it was under Russian occupation, fearing being captured and tortured. Since they have returned, they must live with the daily threat of missiles, as well as constant fear.
For Danchuk, reporting and ensuring that locals don't fall for Russian disinformation is key.
"I produce a video format where I walk around the streets of Kherson and ask people questions. What I have found is that young and middle-aged people want justice for Ukraine if the war is to end, they do not want swathes of the country to be handed over in exchange for peace," he explained.
But this might not be enough, and the Kremlin's influence is still felt among the residents, Danchuk said. His outlet was also forced to cut a fact-checking video project countering Russian historical myths — one of the key tools in Moscow's propaganda arsenal.
"I see that a lot of older people fall for the Russian narrative, many believe that 'we have to make peace with Russians, that every conflict ends and that we must be friends again.'"
"We are continuing to try and tackle disinformation through our articles, but we are able to do a lot less without USAID," concluded Danchuk.