Maha expected to receive below-normal rainfall in August with possible rebound in September
August in the state is likely to remain relatively dry with below-normal rainfall though there may be isolated heavy showers on a few days. Pune district, too, is expected to see a shortfall in rainfall for the month. However, September could reverse this trend, with above-normal rainfall expected, according to the colour-coded probability forecast maps provided by the IMD.
O P Shreejit, senior scientist at IMD Pune, said, 'Maharashtra is likely to experience deficient rainfall in August, but it may be compensated in September. There will still be several instances of good rainfall activity in isolated pockets during August.'
As per the IMD's long-range forecast titled 'Outlook for Rainfall during Second Half of the Southwest Monsoon Season (August-September) and Monthly Rainfall and Temperature', India as a whole is likely to witness above-normal rainfall from August to September but the distribution will vary across regions. The forecast highlights that while most parts of the country are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, some areas including parts of northeast India, the eastern region, central India, and southwestern peninsular India, may face below-normal rainfall.
The forecast further notes that neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Climate models, including the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), indicate that these neutral ENSO conditions will persist through the remainder of the monsoon season.
Additionally, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are being observed, with projections suggesting a transition to weak negative IOD conditions by the end of the monsoon. This shift, the IMD notes, could contribute positively to monsoon rainfall patterns across India in September.
Decrease in extremely heavy rainfall events in July
The IMD data suggests that the frequency of extremely heavy rainfall events in July 2025 was the lowest in the past five years in India, indicating a relative decline in intense rainfall activity during the month. The number of very heavy rainfall events (624) in 2025 also reduced significantly compared to 2023 and 2024. The map indicates widespread heavy to extremely heavy rainfall across many parts of the country, especially the west coast including Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala. Other areas include central India (Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh); northern states (Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh); and parts of northeast India.
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