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Hindustan Times
01-08-2025
- Climate
- Hindustan Times
Maha expected to receive below-normal rainfall in August with possible rebound in September
PUNE: According to the rainfall outlook for the second half of the 2025 southwest monsoon (August-September) released on Thursday by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Maharashtra is expected to receive below-normal rainfall in August, with a possible rebound in September. Maharashtra is expected to receive below-normal rainfall in August, with a possible rebound in September, according to IMD data. ((PIC FOR REPRESENTATION)) August in the state is likely to remain relatively dry with below-normal rainfall though there may be isolated heavy showers on a few days. Pune district, too, is expected to see a shortfall in rainfall for the month. However, September could reverse this trend, with above-normal rainfall expected, according to the colour-coded probability forecast maps provided by the IMD. O P Shreejit, senior scientist at IMD Pune, said, 'Maharashtra is likely to experience deficient rainfall in August, but it may be compensated in September. There will still be several instances of good rainfall activity in isolated pockets during August.' As per the IMD's long-range forecast titled 'Outlook for Rainfall during Second Half of the Southwest Monsoon Season (August-September) and Monthly Rainfall and Temperature', India as a whole is likely to witness above-normal rainfall from August to September but the distribution will vary across regions. The forecast highlights that while most parts of the country are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, some areas including parts of northeast India, the eastern region, central India, and southwestern peninsular India, may face below-normal rainfall. The forecast further notes that neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Climate models, including the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), indicate that these neutral ENSO conditions will persist through the remainder of the monsoon season. Additionally, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are being observed, with projections suggesting a transition to weak negative IOD conditions by the end of the monsoon. This shift, the IMD notes, could contribute positively to monsoon rainfall patterns across India in September. Decrease in extremely heavy rainfall events in July The IMD data suggests that the frequency of extremely heavy rainfall events in July 2025 was the lowest in the past five years in India, indicating a relative decline in intense rainfall activity during the month. The number of very heavy rainfall events (624) in 2025 also reduced significantly compared to 2023 and 2024. The map indicates widespread heavy to extremely heavy rainfall across many parts of the country, especially the west coast including Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala. Other areas include central India (Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh); northern states (Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh); and parts of northeast India.
Hindustan Times
01-07-2025
- Climate
- Hindustan Times
Maharashtra likely to receive above-normal rainfall in July: IMD
Maharashtra is expected to witness widespread above-normal rainfall in July 2025, according to the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) Monthly Outlook for Rainfall and Temperature report released on June 30. Being part of the monsoon core zone, the state is likely to receive enhanced rainfall activity, with particular concern for the Krishna and Godavari river basins where extreme category rainfall is anticipated. The weather department released a colour-coded probabilistic rainfall map indicating that most parts of Maharashtra are likely to experience above-normal rainfall in July. (REPRESENTATIVE PIC) Addressing a virtual press conference on Monday, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, IMD, said that special attention needs to be paid to the two river basins due to the elevated risk of flooding and related hazards. The heavy rainfall could significantly impact the surrounding regions, necessitating vigilant monitoring of river water levels, tributaries, and reservoirs. The forecast for July is part of IMD's probabilistic monthly rainfall outlook based on the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting system. The advanced method utilises inputs from various coupled global climate models (CGCMs), including those developed under IMD's Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS). On climatic conditions influencing the monsoon activity, Mohapatra said that currently, neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions prevail over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to persist through the remainder of the monsoon season, according to MMCFS and other international climate models. The weather department released a colour-coded probabilistic rainfall map indicating that most parts of Maharashtra are likely to experience above-normal rainfall in July. Mohapatra emphasised need for continuous monitoring and proactive administrative response, especially as the month is expected to see an increase in the number of days with low-pressure systems (LPS), similar to the pattern observed in June that contributed significantly to rainfall over central India and along the western coast. 'In June alone, we recorded 13 LPS days, compared to the long-term average of just 2.8 days for the month,' said Mohapatra, adding that the trend of increased low-pressure activity is likely to continue into July. The IMD outlook of timely rains will benefit the agriculture sector and gives a warning signal for potential extreme weather events.
Mint
30-06-2025
- Climate
- Mint
Above-normal rainfall expected in July, likely to boost agriculture and economy
New Delhi: India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall in July, a development that could significantly benefit agriculture and support the broader economy. 'The monthly average rainfall over the country as a whole in July 2025 is most likely to be above normal, exceeding 106% of the long-period average,' said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), during a virtual press conference on Monday. The long-period average for July is 280.4 mm, based on rainfall data from 1971 to 2020. According to the IMD, neutral El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions currently prevail over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) and other climate models suggest these neutral conditions are likely to persist through the remainder of the monsoon season. ENSO refers to a recurring climate pattern involving changes in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure, which significantly influences monsoon behaviour. India received 180 mm of rainfall in June, exceeding the normal of 165.3 mm for the period, marking the 41st highest total since 1901 and 9th highest since 2001, Mohapatra said. Most of northwest, central, and southern India recorded normal to above-normal rainfall last month, while parts of the Northeast and the Himalayan foothills received below-normal precipitation. Favourable monsoon conditions have already begun to reflect in agricultural activity. As of 27 June, total acreage under all kharif crops stood at 26.21 million hectares, up 11.3% from 23.54 million hectares during the same period last year, according to agriculture ministry data. Paddy, the main food grain sown during the kharif season, has seen a 47% surge in acreage to 3.5 million hectares. Pulses acreage rose over 37% to 1.53 million hectares, while oilseeds were planted across 4.9 million hectares, up 20% from 4.0 million hectares a year ago. Sowing of sugarcane and cotton also recorded an increase in area over last year. While many parts of the country are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall in July, the IMD cautioned that below-normal rainfall is likely in much of northeast and eastern India, parts of the extreme southern peninsula, and select areas in the northwest. Meanwhile, monthly average maximum temperatures are expected to remain normal to below normal across most regions, except in parts of the Northeast, East, Northwest, and southern peninsula, where they may be above normal. A strong monsoon is expected to support a healthy crop output, which in turn could help contain inflation. Retail inflation in India dropped to a six-year low in May, driven by easing food prices. According to data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation fell to 2.82% year-on-year, down from 3.16% in April and 4.8% in May 2023. Food inflation eased sharply to 0.99% in May, from 1.78% in April and 8.69% a year ago. While above-normal rainfall bodes well for agriculture and water resources, it also carries risks, the IMD cautioned. These include the potential for flooding, landslides, disruptions to surface transport, public health challenges, and damage to ecosystems. To mitigate these, IMD has advised reinforcing critical infrastructure, leveraging early warning systems, strengthening surveillance and conservation efforts, and developing robust response mechanisms for vulnerable sectors.
