Maharashtra likely to receive above-normal rainfall in July: IMD
Addressing a virtual press conference on Monday, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, IMD, said that special attention needs to be paid to the two river basins due to the elevated risk of flooding and related hazards. The heavy rainfall could significantly impact the surrounding regions, necessitating vigilant monitoring of river water levels, tributaries, and reservoirs.
The forecast for July is part of IMD's probabilistic monthly rainfall outlook based on the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting system. The advanced method utilises inputs from various coupled global climate models (CGCMs), including those developed under IMD's Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS).
On climatic conditions influencing the monsoon activity, Mohapatra said that currently, neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions prevail over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to persist through the remainder of the monsoon season, according to MMCFS and other international climate models.
The weather department released a colour-coded probabilistic rainfall map indicating that most parts of Maharashtra are likely to experience above-normal rainfall in July.
Mohapatra emphasised need for continuous monitoring and proactive administrative response, especially as the month is expected to see an increase in the number of days with low-pressure systems (LPS), similar to the pattern observed in June that contributed significantly to rainfall over central India and along the western coast.
'In June alone, we recorded 13 LPS days, compared to the long-term average of just 2.8 days for the month,' said Mohapatra, adding that the trend of increased low-pressure activity is likely to continue into July.
The IMD outlook of timely rains will benefit the agriculture sector and gives a warning signal for potential extreme weather events.
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