Asia: Stocks up as Trump announces Iran-Israel ceasefire
[TOKYO] Asian shares gained and oil prices were down on Tuesday, as fears of an energy market shock eased following US President Donald Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.
Investors were relieved that Iran did not retaliate to a US attack on its nuclear facilities by throttling oil transport through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
On Monday, Iran said it had launched missiles at a major US base in Qatar, which described the situation as stable, while analysts said oilfield assets were unaffected.
'Tehran played it cool. Their 'retaliation' hit a US base in Qatar - loud enough for headlines, quiet enough not to shake the oil market's foundations,' said Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management.
'And once that became clear, the war premium came crashing out of crude,' with Brent and the main US crude contract WTI sliding more than seven percent overnight.
Both oil contracts were down over two per cent on Tuesday.
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In Asia, the mood was largely upbeat, with Tokyo and Hong Kong up 1.4 per cent, Shanghai gaining 0.8 per cent and Seoul jumping 2.7 per cent.
Singapore gained 0.7 per cent, Sydney was up 1.1 per cent and Taipei put on 1.8 per cent, but Jakarta was down 1.7 per cent.
Trump said Iran and Israel had agreed to a staggered ceasefire that would bring about an 'official end' to their conflict, as strikes continued to hammer Tehran.
Iran's foreign minister said Tuesday that Tehran did not intend to continue its strikes if Israel stopped its attacks.
'Details of the ceasefire agreement are still sparse at the time of writing and as such the detente and de-escalation is not a done deal,' wrote Michael Wan at MUFG.
'Nonetheless, latest news reports suggest Iran has agreed to the ceasefire and if this is right, the left tail risk of more extreme scenarios resulting in significant oil supply disruptions have meaningfully diminished.'
In forex markets, the dollar gave up gains after Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she would support cutting interest rates at July's meeting if inflation holds steady.
The market currently expects the Fed to resume cutting interest rates in September.
Bowman indicated that 'ongoing progress in tariff negotiations providing a less risky economic environment to adjust policy',' prompting the dollar to weaken, Wan said. AFP
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CNA
21 minutes ago
- CNA
Shares rally, oil slumps as Iran-Israel ceasefire goes into effect
SYDNEY :Oil tumbled 4 per cent, global shares surged and the dollar dropped on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump said a ceasefire between Israel and Iran was in place, a dramatic turnaround after the U.S. bombed Iran's nuclear sites over the weekend. Brent futures had already slid 7 per cent on Monday and U.S. shares jumped after Iran made a token retaliation against a U.S. base and signalled it was done for now. With the immediate threat to the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane seemingly over, the global benchmark was last at $67.68 a barrel, its lowest since June 11. U.S. crude futures dropped 3.6 per cent to $66.02 a barrel. "With markets now viewing the escalation risk as over, market attention is likely to shift towards the looming tariff deadline in two weeks' time," said Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities. "Our sense is that the quicker than expected resolution to the Middle East conflict leads to expectations for a swifter resolution on tariffs and trade deals." But for now, equity markets were basking in the eased geopolitical tensions. Risk assets rallied, with S&P 500 futures up 1 per cent and Nasdaq futures 1.3 per cent higher. Europe's Stoxx 600 gained 1.3 per cent in early trade, with travel stocks, such as airlines surging 4 per cent while oil and gas names shed 3 per cent. Earlier in the day MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumped 2.2 per cent while Japan's Nikkei rallied 1.1 per cent. On trade, two sources told Reuters that Japan's tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa was arranging his seventh visit to the United States for as early as June 26, aiming to end tariffs that are hurting Japan's economy. Government bonds largely looked through the news. The war has been a challenge for bond traders to process as they have had to weigh safe haven flows against the effect of higher oil prices on inflation. RATE CUTS APPROACHING? Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said the time to cut interest rates was getting nearer as risks to the job market may be on the rise. That followed Fed Governor Christopher Waller saying on Friday he would consider a rate cut at the July 29-30 meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have his own chance to comment when appearing before Congress later on Tuesday and, so far, has been more cautious about a near-term easing. Markets still only imply around a 22 per cent chance the Fed will cut at its next meeting on July 30, but a September cut is near to fully priced. Ten-year Treasury yields were mostly steady at 4.33 per cent, having declined 5 bps overnight. Germany's 10-year yield was flat at 3.52 per cent News of the ceasefire saw the dollar extend an overnight retreat and slip 0.7 per cent to 145.43 yen , having come off a six-week high of 148 yen overnight. The euro rose 0.2 per cent to $1.1602 on Tuesday, having gained 0.5 per cent overnight. The yen and euro benefited from the slide in oil prices as both the EU and Japan rely heavily on imports of oil and liquefied natural gas, while the United States is a net exporter. The risk-on mood saw gold prices ease 1 per cent to $3,333 an ounce.
AsiaOne
34 minutes ago
- AsiaOne
Big questions loom over Trump's announcement of Israel-Iran ceasefire deal, World News
WASHINGTON — When President Donald Trump sent US bombers to strike Iran's nuclear sites last weekend, he was betting he could help ally Israel cripple Tehran's nuclear programme while keeping his long-standing vow to avoid entanglement in a protracted war. Just days later, Trump's surprise announcement on Monday (June 23) of an Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement suggests he may have bombed Tehran's rulers back to the negotiating table. But a long list of big unanswered questions remains, not least whether any ceasefire can actually take effect and hold between two bitter foes whose years-long "shadow" conflict had erupted into an air war marked by the past 12 days of strikes on each other's territory. Also still unknown and unmentioned in Trump's effusive social media post announcing an imminent "Complete and Total CEASEFIRE" are the terms the two sides have agreed to; whether the US and Iran will revive failed nuclear talks; and the fate of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium that many experts believe may have survived the US and Israeli bombing campaign. "The Israelis have accomplished much of their objectives... and Iran was looking for an off-ramp," said Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy US national intelligence officer for the Middle East. "The US hopes this is the beginning of the end. The challenge is whether there is a strategy for what comes next." Questions also remain about what has actually been agreed to, even as Trump's declaration raised hopes for the end of a conflict that has prompted fears of a broader regional war. There was no immediate confirmation from Israel of a ceasefire deal, and the Israeli military said it had detected missiles launched from Iran towards Israel in the early hours of Tuesday. Four people were killed in a missile strike on a building in Beersheba, Israel's ambulance service said. Soon after, Trump said the ceasefire between Israel and Iran was "now in effect" and urged both countries to not violate it. While an Iranian official earlier confirmed that Tehran had accepted a ceasefire, the country's foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, said there would be no cessation of hostilities unless Israel stopped its attacks. But that did not stop Trump and his loyalists from touting what they see as a landmark achievement of a foreign policy approach they call "peace through strength." Trump had endorsed Israel's assessment that Iran was getting close to developing a nuclear weapon, which Tehran has long denied. US intelligence agencies said earlier this year they assessed that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon and a source with access to US intelligence reports told Reuters last week that that view hadn't changed. Iran's calibrated response Trump's announcement came just hours after Iran launched missiles against a US air base in Qatar, causing no casualties, in retaliation for the US dropping 30,000-pound (about 13,607kg) bunker-buster bombs on Iranian underground nuclear facilities over the weekend. [[nid:719411]] Trump administration officials deemed Iran's response on Monday to have been calibrated to avoid further escalation with the US, according to sources familiar with the matter. Trump called for talks with Israel and Iran, and a senior White House official said Israel agreed to a ceasefire so long as Iran did not launch fresh attacks. Iran signalled that no further strikes would take place, the official said on condition of anonymity. Trump spoke directly to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US special envoy Steve Witkoff were involved in the direct and indirect communications with Iran, the official said. Qatar also helped broker contacts with the Iranians. Iran was also amenable to the ceasefire because it was in a severely "weakened state," the White House official said. The Iranians had faced days of Israeli bombardment of nuclear and military sites as well as targeted killings of top nuclear scientists and security commanders. Trump in recent days had also mused publicly about the prospects for "regime change" in Iran. Earlier on Monday, three Israeli officials had said their government was looking to wrap up its campaign in Iran soon and had passed the message on to the US but that much would depend on Tehran. "Now that Trump declared 'world peace,' it will be hard for Netanyahu to publicly contradict him," said Laura Blumenfeld, a Middle East expert at the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies in Washington. Trump's big gamble For his part, Trump's unprecedented decision to bomb Iran's nuclear sites marked a step that he had long pledged to avoid - to intervene militarily in a major foreign war. In the biggest and potentially riskiest foreign policy move of his presidency, Trump was betting not only that he could take out Iran's key nuclear site at Fordow but also draw only measured retaliation against the US There have been fears that Tehran could respond by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil artery, attacking multiple US military bases in the Middle East and activating proxies against US and Israeli interests worldwide. If Trump is able to defuse the Israel-Iran conflict, he may be able to calm the storm of criticism from congressional Democrats and appease the anti-interventionist wing of his Republican MAGA base over bombings that ran counter to his own campaign pledges. It would also allow him to re-focus on policy priorities such as deporting undocumented migrants and waging a tariff war against trading partners. But Trump and his aides won't be able to ignore Iran and the lingering questions it poses. "Can the ceasefire hold?" asked Dennis Ross, a former Middle East negotiator for Republican and Democratic administrations. "Yes, the Iranians need it and the Israelis have largely now acted against the (Israeli Defence Force's) target list." But obstacles remain. "Iran is greatly weakened but what is the future of its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes? What happens to its stockpile of highly enriched uranium? There will be a need for negotiations — and these won't be easy to resolve," Ross said. [[nid:719431]]
Straits Times
an hour ago
- Straits Times
Netanyahu says Israel has agreed to Trump's proposal for ceasefire with Iran
FILE PHOTO: FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump talks to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a meeting where Trump announced nuclear talks with Iran, Washington, U.S., April 7, 2025. REUTERS/Kevin Mohatt/File Photo/File Photo Netanyahu says Israel has agreed to Trump's proposal for ceasefire with Iran JERUSALEM - Israel has agreed to U.S. President Donald Trump's proposal for a ceasefire with Iran after it achieved its goal of removing Tehran's nuclear and ballistic missile threat, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said in a statement on Tuesday. "Israel thanks President Trump and the United States for their support in defense and their participation in eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat," the statement said. "In light of the achievement of the operation's goals, and in full coordination with President Trump, Israel agreed to the President's proposal for a mutual ceasefire," the statement added. Trump said on Tuesday a ceasefire between Israel and Iran was now in place and asked both countries not to violate it, only hours after Iran launched waves of missiles, which Israel's ambulance service said killed at least four people. Netanyahu, who will deliver a statement later on Tuesday, also said Israel would respond forcefully to any violation of the ceasefire. Israel, joined by the United States on the weekend, has carried out attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, after alleging Tehran was getting close to obtaining a nuclear weapon. Iran denies ever having a nuclear weapons programme, but Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has said that if it wanted to, world leaders "wouldn't be able to stop us". REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
