The Tariff News Turned The SP Futures, However Fibonacci Was There First
SP 500 Futures
The chart is key to this analysis.
(ESM25)
We recently did a post on the SP 500 futures hitting our long term target and this is an update to it.
On Monday morning we sent out that the overnight trade had hit a major level below.
4/7/25
The big plunge overnight took it to 23.6% back to the 2009 low at 4850.00.
Here is what is possible on a failure to get back above 38.2% back to the 2022 low at 5153.50 and what to look for if it does.
You can use 5153.50 as the swing point for the day and longer term.
This is now 23.6% back to the ATH as well as a major Gann square. Not getting back...
Holding 4850.00 and then closing back above 5153.50 would be a very positive sign and a new ATH could eventually follow. As always the first real test will be 38.2% back at 5340.00, a failure to get above here keeps the short term trend negative and a new low can quickly follow. The longer term targets are 61.8% at 5652.00 and then the area of the 5850.25 major Gann square, 78.6% back to the ATH at 5877.00 and the 200 day average at 5896.00.
The wild trade over the last few days held 23.6% back to the 2009 low at 4850.00 and the rally from there has already closed above 38.2% back to the ATH at 5340.00.
You can now use this as the swing point for the week and look for the levels above mentioned on Monday.
There are two methods we use at ONE44 to find support and resistance in the markets.
The first are major Gann squares, these are the yellow horizontal lines on the chart. On the chart you can see where the market turned multiple times at these levels.
The second is Fibonacci retracements and this is what most of this post will be about.
There are a few basic rules when using the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.
This is the short version.
A 38.2% level keeps the trend intact and new highs/lows should follow.
A 23.6% level shows the market is extremely strong, or weak.
A 61.8% level can send the market 61.8% of where it just can from and cause wide swings keeping the market in a trading range.
A 78.6% level can send it 78.6% of where it just came from and even be the end or start of a Bull market.
We have done 46 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. These Videos are worth watching even if it is not in the market you are trading, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You will also see why we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of ALL markets.
Here is the latest.
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ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point
Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.
If you like this type of analysis and trade the Grain/Livestock futures you can become a Premium Member.
You can also follow us on YouTube for more examples of how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.
FULL RISK DISCLOSURE: Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Commission Rule 4.41(b)(1)(I) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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