What is Alvin? There isn't a tropical storm out there for Florida. Here's what's happening
The first tropical storm of the season may be brewing. But it's nowhere near Florida.
Showers and thunderstorms near an area of low pressure southeast of Mexico near Central America in the Pacific Ocean have a 90% chance of forming into a tropical depression, National Hurricane Center forecasters said on Tuesday, May 27.
"While recent satellite-derived wind data indicates the system does not yet have a well- defined circulation, environmental conditions are favorable for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or two as the low moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 kt," the National Hurricane Center said in a tropical weather outlook.
"There is a high chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours," the NHC said.
The 2025 Pacific hurricane season began on May 15, two weeks earlier than the Atlantic season, which begins June 1.
Over here on the Atlantic side, things are still quiet, with the NHC tracking two tropical waves in the Central Atlantic and the Caribbean.
The system has not formed into a tropical depression yet, much less a named storm. But if it does, it would be called Alvin, the first named tropical cyclone anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere this year.
"This tropical rainstorm we are watching could wander close enough to part of the southwestern coast of Mexico to bring locally drenching rain," AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said. AccuWeather forecasters say the tropical rainstorm could develop in the next one to three days.
The Pacific hurricane season begins earlier than the Atlantic one, officially starting on May 15 as opposed to the Atlantic season's June 1. Both seasons end on Nov. 30.
The average date for the first tropical storm of the eastern Pacific season is June 10, according to the National Hurricane Center.
"If a storm forms soon, it would be well ahead of the historical pace – and much earlier than last year's first storm. In 2024, Aletta didn't form until July 4, marking the latest start to an eastern Pacific hurricane season in the satellite era," said AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in a seasonal hurricane forecast released May 22, said that a below-average eastern Pacific hurricane season is most likely. An average season sees 15 named storms.
NOAA is predicting there is a 60% chance of an above-normal season on our side of the country, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance for a below-normal season.
➤ NOAA predicting above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. What can Florida expect?
Forecasters predict:
Named storms: 13-19
Hurricanes: 6-10
Major hurricanes: 3-5
A major hurricane is a Category 3 storm or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Tallahassee meteorologist Ryan Truchelut, who forecasts under WeatherTiger, is predicting landfall risks as near to slightly above normal this year due to closer-to-average sea temperatures this year.
Truchelut looks more at impact than the Atlantic basin as a whole. So far, he's predicting 65% odds of an above normal season:
Tropical storms: 16-20
Hurricanes: 7-9
Major hurricanes: 3-4
Since 2003, there have been 15 tropical cyclones that have formed before June 1. Eleven of those storms formed in May.
There have even been occasions when a tropical cyclone has formed in January. Here's a look back at a few of the early storms:
Jan. 16-17, 2023: Unnamed subtropical storm.
May 22-23, 2021: Tropical Storm Ana.
May 16-19, 2020: Tropical Storm Arthur.
May 27-28, 2020: Tropical Storm Bertha.
May 20-21, 2019: Subtropical Storm Andrea.
May 25-31, 2018: Tropical Storm Alberto.
April 19-21, 2017: Tropical Storm Arlene.
Jan. 12-15, 2016: Hurricane Alex
May 27-June 4, 2016: Tropical Storm Bonnie
May 8-11, 2015: Tropical Storm Ana.
May 19-22, 2012: Tropical Storm Alberto.
May 26-30, 2012: Tropical Storm Beryl.
May 31-June 1, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur.
May 9-11, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea.
April 20-24, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana.
We will provided tropical weather coverage daily until Nov. 30 to keep you informed and prepared. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: Tropical Storm Alvin? 1st named storm could form in Pacific
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