Trump's EU Deal May Not Hurt Putin
The EU-U.S. deal for 15 percent tariffs for European goods included a pledge by Brussels to buy $750 billion of American energy, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) over the next three years.
Von der Leyen has said too much Russian energy was still entering the EU but there are questions over whether the deal can stifle Moscow's main revenue generator as it continues its military aggression.
Septimus Knox, from the cyber and security consultancy S-RM, told Newsweek as long as there is a market for Russian oil, it will be difficult for Ukraine's allies in Europe to pressure Moscow economically.
Newsweek has contacted the European Union for comment.
Headlines of the EU-U.S. deal focused on the 15 percent tariffs that European goods would face in the U.S.—half the 30 percent level that Trump had threatened.
But the agreement also included a requirement by EU companies to buy $250 billion worth of U.S. oil, natural gas and nuclear technologies for each of the next three years.
The EU has pledged to phase out Russian energy sources by 2028 and Trump's deal could help with that but questions remain over how such a pledge can be carried out while Europe tries to decarbonize its economy.
In 2024, the EU imported more than $435.7 billion worth of energy, the Financial Times reported— but U.S. fossil fuel supplies to the bloc are worth only $75 billion, meaning a huge spike in trade would be needed under the terms of the deal.
Von der Leyen said the EU would start large-scale purchases of U.S. oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and nuclear fuel as it moves to phase out Russian energy sources.
The EU chief said too much Russian energy still enters Europe, despite sanctions, and expanding energy cooperation with the U.S. would diversify sources of supply and increase energy security.
Septimus Knox, director, disputes and investigations at S-RM told Newsweek the deal is more about securing future supplies rather than decoupling the EU from Russian energy, which has been a Brussels objective since the start of the war.
However, as long as a market exists for cheap Russian oil, it will be very difficult for Ukraine-aligned countries to pressure Moscow financially, he said.
This was because the Russian economy has been distorted by the sole objective of sustaining the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin can also accept heavy economic damage to achieve this, calculating it is unlikely to lead to civil discontent.
Russia also seems to have been successful in pivoting away from the EU toward China, India and Turkey, which have all surpassed the EU in terms of energy imports, said Knox.
But closer collaboration between the EU and U.S. could mean that the cost of Russia's forced diversification away from the EU cuts deeper economically, he added.
Leigh Hansson, partner in Reed Smith's Global Regulatory Enforcement Group, told Newsweek the EU has already drastically reduced its reliance on Russian gas.
Hanson said although the details of the energy element of the EU-U.S. deal are not entirely clear, it likely will further decrease European dependence on Russian gas.
But Svitlana Romanko, founder and executive director of Razom We Stand, told Newsweek that the Trump deal risks locking the EU into another cycle of gas dependence.
She said the deal should be treated as a short-term bridge while Europe doubles down on clean energy solutions that permanently end the Kremlin's leverage over energy exports.
The EU passed its 18th sanctions package against Russia this month.
Knox said its targeting of two Chinese banks and the Nayara Energy oil refinery in India, partly owned by Russia's Rosneft, showed how Brussels is willing to target China and India to curtail Moscow's access to these markets.
The EU and the U.S. can also use sanctions to drive the cost of sales up for Russia and, with reduced revenues, the Kremlin will have to make increasingly difficult choices with regards to state funding, Knox added.
What People Are Saying
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: "We will replace Russian gas and oil by significant purchases of US LNG, oil and nuclear fuels...we want to absolutely get rid of Russian fossil fuels."
Septimus Knox, from the cyber and security consultancy S-RM, told Newsweek: "As long as a market exists for cheap Russian oil, it will be very difficult for Ukraine-aligned countries to pressure Russia financially.
Knox added: "Ultimately, Russia will always be able to derive significant revenues from its energy production."
Svitlana Romanko, founder and executive director of Razom We Stand: "This deal should be treated as a short-term bridge while Europe doubles down on clean energy solutions that permanently end the Kremlin's leverage over our energy systems."
More details will be negotiated in the coming weeks in the framework deal. The European Commission can negotiate trade deals for the entire bloc but it still needs the backing of the 27 EU member states, whose ambassadors will meet next week.
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