Saharan dust lingers over Florida as National Hurricane Center keeps eye on tropical wave

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13 hours ago

As Saharan dust keeps Florida skies hazy, all remains quiet in the tropics, with the National Hurricane Center watching a single tropical wave out there
Satellite images early Friday show the dust over the Florida peninsula and the eastern Gulf.
No tropical activity is expected over the next seven days, although conditions can change rapidly, especially since tropical storms historically pop up closer to the U.S. this time of year, something AccuWeather describes as "homegrown" storms, which give residents less time to react.
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The dust moving across the Atlantic from Africa is helping keep the tropics quiet, as the dry air helps prevent the development of new storms and helps prevent any existing ones from strengthening.
Another large plume of dust moving off Africa could reach Florida around June 13, according to AccuWeather.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., June 6:
The National Hurricane Center is watching a tropical wave in the central Atlantic. It's moving west at 11 to 17 mph.
Now is the time to prepare for a hurricane, before a storm is approaching.
"This dust will likely prevent anything from forming across most of the Atlantic tropical basin over the next few weeks," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva.
"The only areas that can see a risk of development will be across the western Caribbean or in the Gulf.
"The timing we are looking at for possible tropical development in the central and western Caribbean is June 12-16 or perhaps a bit later," DaSilva said.
AccuWeather meteorologists said there is a low risk for tropical development in that area through mid-June.
"Should a tropical depression or storm take shape next week, it may be more likely to track into the Gulf and then perhaps swing toward Louisiana or Florida," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
"Should it wait till later next week or perhaps hold off until nearly the middle of the month, steering breezes would be more likely to take it into southern Mexico or Central America."
It appears that the latter option, with movement toward Mexico or Central America, is more likely, according to AccuWeather.
Historically, tropical cyclones form close to the U.S. in June, with the most common locations being the northwestern Caribbean and the eastern Gulf, according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
"None of the reputable forecast models are showing a realistic chance of anything tropical forming on the Atlantic side of Central America through mid-month."
➤ WeatherTiger: False alarms, beneficial rain and a dusty start to Florida storm season
The exception is the GFS model, which is predicting a Caribbean tropical storm will spin up in 10 to 12 days, then move generally northward, Truchelut said.
"The GFS has a persistent and well-known bias for incorrectly predicting development in the Caribbean at this specific time of year," Truchelut said. "All told, while something could eventually spin up in two or three weeks, the GFS' frequent false alarms should be disregarded."
The GFS model, which stands for Global Forecast System, is the weather prediction model operated by the National Weather Service. In addition to providing data for a wide range of forecasts, it's also used for hurricane tracking.
Here's what you can expect June 6:
Pensacola, western Panhandle: Thunderstorms possible today, although not as widespread compared to previous days. High near 91 Friday, with heat index as high as 102. Chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast for both Saturday and Sunday. Weekend high temperatures are expected to generally range from the upper 80s to near 90 along the coast to the lower to middle 90s inland.
Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Another round of thunderstorms is expected June 6, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms during the weekend. Friday's high will be near 91, with a heat index as high as 102. Weekend high temperatures are expected to generally range from the upper 80s to near 90 along the coast to the lower to middle 90s inland. Heat index is forecast to be 100.
Jacksonville, Northeast Florida: A severe storm risk will increase into this weekend mainly for areas north of I-10. The primary hazards for stronger storms will be wind gusts of 40-60 mph, hail, frequent lightning and locally heavy downpours. Temperatures will be in the lower 90s June 6, with a heat index around 100.
Daytona Beach to Stuart, east-central Florida: Hotter today with temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s most areas with peak heat indices 99 to 103 during the afternoon. Scattered afternoon showers and storms will bring relief to some but not all.
West Palm Beach to Naples, South Florida: Stray showers possible in the afternoon as temperatures climb into the upper 80s along the east coast and into the low to mid-90s across Southwest Florida. Conditions are forecast to warm up even more Saturday due to the influence of the lingering Saharan dust, with highs reaching the low 90s across the East Coast, and potentially hitting the mid to upper 90s over Southwest Florida.
Fort Myers to Sarasota, west-southwest Florida: Partly cloudy and hot June 6, with warmer temperatures expected through the weekend. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs in the upper 80s along the coast and lower to mid-90s inland.
A "wall of dust" continues to move through Florida. The dust plume is expected to stretch along the Gulf Coast and portions of the southwest Atlantic coast through June 6.
Look for vivid sunrises and sunsets, along with hazy skies as the dust remains mostly in the upper atmosphere. If there are storms, though, the dust can mix with rain and leave dirty spots on cars and other objects, AccuWeather said.
The "considerable plume of Saharan dust" is forecast to remain across South Florida through Saturday, helping keep conditions drier than earlier in the week.
The dust traveled across the Atlantic from the Sahara Desert. Dust in the atmosphere helps prevent the formation or strengthening of tropical systems.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA said.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
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This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Saharan dust storm over Florida now; Hurricane Center all quiet