Injustice in the delay: on the next Census
India's next decadal population census, initially delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, is now scheduled to conclude by March 2027, after a further delay apparently fuelled by political motivations. The Census in 2021 did not take place as planned, thus impacting different aspects of governance, especially social security schemes for vulnerable populations that rely heavily on updated demographic data for effective and efficient delivery. For the first time, the Census will be digitally administered, enabling faster data gathering and easier accessibility for analysis, thereby allowing population-level data to be more dynamic. However, this technological adoption also heightens concerns regarding data theft and privacy. While the nature of the Census will evolve, transparency at all levels will be crucial to building public trust in the exercise. Preparations for this massive operation, which will reach every household, are underway, with more logistical details anticipated in the weeks ahead.
India stands at a demographic crossroads, facing the challenges of growing populations of the young and the old alongside significant regional variations in key indicators. Fresh data from the Census can help address many issues. For the first time since 1931, caste categories will be enumerated. While more reliable data on the socio-economic standing of caste groups can inform development planning, the potential for further social segmentation makes caste enumeration a double-edged sword. A critical aspect of the upcoming Census is its link to the next delimitation of Lok Sabha and Assembly constituencies, which will redraw India's electoral map. The Constitution mandates that the next inter-State delimitation be based on population figures from the first Census after 2026. The current distribution of Lok Sabha seats is based on the 1971 population spread. With the reference date for the Census set as March 1, 2027, for most of the country, this can pave the way for the next delimitation exercise. States that have experienced lower population growth in recent decades, particularly in the peninsular region, have expressed concern that their parliamentary representation will diminish if population becomes the sole criterion for redistribution. The Centre has yet to clarify its stance on this matter. With the Census now in motion, it is imperative for the Centre to engage with all stakeholders and build consensus on the sensitive issue of delimitation. Otherwise, the delay in the announcement of the Census will be taken to mean as an attempt to ensure that the ruling BJP benefits from the increased representation for the Hindi-speaking States.
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