Can the Josh Kraft campaign be saved?
I would have guessed he was down 20 points, not 30.
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Before I get to the underwhelming Kraft campaign, let's give Wu her due. Her
She has since moved very effectively to consolidate her support within a broad swath of constituencies. If you heard a few months ago that
And her attacks on Kraft as a
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I've never thought of Wu as enjoying Menino-level popularity or popular affection, but maybe that perception is outdated. She's never felt the love she's getting right now.
Her campaign could hardly be going any better.
Team Kraft responded to the bombshell poll with standard campaign bravado.
'Josh didn't get into the Mayor's race because of what polling says, and nothing has changed his focus on continuing to show up in Boston neighborhoods, talk to residents, and listen to the concerns of many people who are disappointed with this Mayor and the direction the city is going,' his campaign said in a statement. 'The entire campaign team is confident that as residents learn more about Josh, his background of service, and his ideas for the future of Boston, the numbers will move in his direction.'
Note that nowhere does this statement dispute the poll's findings.
What this poll lays bare is that nothing the Kraft campaign is doing is working.
From the outset, it has placed its faith in the belief that Wu is unlikable. And that there is enough disgust around issues like bike lanes and the
But they are clearly misreading the moment. Yes, Bostonians hate the city's terrible traffic. But they don't think Michelle Wu invented it, and they are clearly unmoved by Kraft's promise to freeze bike lanes.
Along the same lines, Team Kraft has also been unable to whip up hysteria over crime. Wu likes to say we live in the safest big city in the country; experts say the superlative 'safest' is disputable. But what matters in this debate is that voters don't view violent crime as an urgent problem in need of fixing.
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Ultimately, fear of crime isn't statistical; it's something voters feel in their bones. Boston residents don't feel unsafe.
So Kraft hasn't found an effective line of attack. It's not that people think Wu is some perfect mayor - of course they don't. But they believe in where she's leading the city, and they don't see why Kraft would be an upgrade.
Finally, voters appear to be wary that Kraft is trying to use his wealth to buy his way into office. According to campaign finance records, Kraft has raised well over $3 million for this race, not counting the millions a Super PAC - 'Your City, Your Future' - has raised to blanket the airwaves with anti-Wu ads on Kraft's behalf. Wu has attacked him relentlessly for trying to buy City Hall, and that seems to be effective.
I firmly believe Kraft's camp erred by going so negative so early. Aggressively attacking Wu before voters had any sense of Kraft wasn't just ineffective - I think it rallied support for her. That partly explains why his numbers are so remarkably low. His campaign has been great - for Wu.
The worst number in this poll for Kraft: Seven. That's the percentage of remaining undecided voters. That is the number that might force him to rethink this entire venture. Because if you're down 30 points and most voters have made up their minds, where do you go for your votes?
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I'm not saying I expect Kraft to drop out. But the questions facing this campaign today are truly existential. Robert Kraft is a man who despises losing and hates throwing away money. He can't relish the prospect of dumping millions of dollars into a blowout loss, and I'm sure he has trusted people on his payroll who know how to analyze a poll.
Josh Kraft is a dedicated, well-meaning civic figure. But what he isn't, to date, is much of a mayoral candidate. Yes, he has millions of dollars left to spend on this race.
But all his riches haven't bought him much so far. Maybe this would be a good time to ask himself why that's likely to change.
Adrian Walker is a Globe columnist. He can be reached at
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