Analysis: Trump's angry, erratic behavior explains his lowball poll numbers

CNN

6 hours ago

Donald Trump's wild and whirling day showed why most Americans disapprove of him and think he's ignoring their key issues — and why his most loyal supporters will never desert him.
The president's incessant assaults on the national psyche mean everyone has become a little numb to his shocking style of politics. But even for him, Wednesday was a reckless ride, on which he only sparingly addressed the voter concerns that sent him back to the White House.
Trump ignited more speculation he may fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after a Tuesday meeting at which he polled lawmakers about what he should do, CNN reported.
Ousting Powell would be the most overt attempt by a modern president to interfere in the Fed's role of setting interest rates and could tip the global economy over a cliff. It might also be the riskiest power grab yet of Trump's expansive second term, since it would traumatize markets by obliterating an assumption that made the US the world's most powerful economy — that presidents don't emulate developing world dictators by cooking the books for political gain.
Trump later insisted it was 'highly unlikely' he'd dismiss Powell after markets shuddered. But given his volatile nature and obvious desire to exact revenge on an official who has refused to bow to his autocratic impulses, few will take such assurances to the (central) bank.
Meanwhile, in an extraordinary outburst on Truth Social, Trump blasted some of the most vocal MAGA personalities as 'weaklings' over their criticism of his administration's refusal to throw open files on the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Trump's defensiveness supercharged a furor simmering for more than a week — and is likely to spur more claims he's got something to hide and to encourage Democratic calls for more transparency.
In seeking to defuse a conspiracy, Trump created a new one, nonsensically accusing Democrats of being behind the storm — even though Epstein was charged with sex trafficking by Trump's own first-term Justice Department. 'Their new SCAM is what we will forever call the Jeffrey Epstein Hoax, and my PAST supporters have bought into this 'bullsh*t,' hook, line, and sinker,' Trump wrote on Truth Social.
These two dramas — which are hardly what keeps most voters awake at night — encapsulate the exceptional and often dangerous aspects of Trump's unique presidency.
He's looking for a Fed chief who will throw caution to the wind and slash interest rates in pursuit of fast growth. As with his obsession with tariffs, which similarly affronts economic orthodoxy, Trump is itching to implement a risky pet theory that many experts predict would court disaster.
This is more in keeping with the whims of a king than a conventional president who respects democratic norms. After all, Powell is praised by many economists for doing the impossible — taming the worst inflation crisis in 40 years without setting off a recession or surging unemployment. But unlike the Fed chief, whom he appointed in his first term, Trump acts on hunches. If he gets this wrong and ignites contagion in the financial markets, the savings and livelihoods of millions could be on the line.
The Epstein case is extraordinary in its own way, since Trump, the most prolific spinner of conspiracy theories in modern politics, is now trapped in a firestorm of innuendo and falsehoods that he helped to create. He's getting payback for long seeding extreme distrust for government in his movement — which he's exploited to build a personal power base on a foundation of voter grievance. His failure to quell the Epstein storyline is a warning of what happens to a democracy when facts and truth are trashed and the legitimacy of government is destroyed because a substantial community doubts everything it's told.
As often happens, Trumpian cacophony obscured some more significant victories for the president, including his expanding demolition job on the federal government — a core campaign goal. The White House on Wednesday was still celebrating a Supreme Court ruling that will allow it to push ahead with the gutting of the Education Department with mass firings.
Dismantling the agency has been an elusive GOP priority going back to Ronald Reagan. Trump also made progress on another longtime goal that other Republican presidents couldn't get done as a bill withdrawing federal funding for public broadcasting moved closer to a vote.
At the White House, Trump also signed the HALT Fentanyl Act, which passed Congress with bipartisan majorities. The measure strengthens penalties for traffickers, although critics warn it could counterproductively lead to the incarceration of addicts.
The president presided over a ceremony that featured relatives of Americans who tragically died after taking the drug. The compassion he showed underscored why he's so loved among his grassroots base.
The plague of fentanyl is especially resonant with Trump's supporters in rural areas of red states, which have paid a terrible price in the opioid epidemic. The president recognized the pain such drugs are causing for droves of American families by putting it at the center of his campaigns — probably more than any other politician.
The flow of fentanyl across the southern border means this issue intersects with another primary Trump cause that is popular with his voters — hardline immigration policy. His attentiveness to public opinion in this area helped unify and expand the working-class coalition that twice won the White House.
These voters believe they have a president who listens to them.
Trump's frenetic day helps explain some of the findings of a new CNN/SSRS poll released on Wednesday.
His willingness to take huge risks with the economy, his obsession with sideshows like the Epstein case, and his habit of acting for a minority of the country means he's put a ceiling on his own poll numbers. In the CNN poll, Trump's approval rating was largely unchanged from the spring, at 42%. But less than a year after an election that turned in part on frustration about the cost of groceries and housing, only 37% of those polled say Trump is concentrating on the right issues — down 6 points from March.
Neither a MAGA freakout around Epstein nor a melodrama over Powell was at the top of voters' concerns in 2024.
More worryingly for Trump, he's underwater on many of the current questions most voters worry about. Normally, this would be a sign of a presidency in deep trouble. Second-term presidents who dip this low typically endure rough years leading up to their White House exit.
Trump is a unique case, however. His current approval numbers are in a range that is typical for his entire time in the White House. His willingness to push his powers to the limit — and sometimes beyond the law and the Constitution — and pliant GOP majorities in Congress mean that he's less reliant on building public support for his priorities than more conventional presidents.
Still, he still seems to be doing the opposite of what most voters want. His biggest-ever domestic triumph — the just-passed 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act,' which contains much of his second-term domestic agenda — is opposed by 61% of Americans. And his approval among independents is an anemic 32%.
These numbers may send a chill into the hearts of vulnerable Republican lawmakers running in swing districts in next year's midterm elections. And they contextualize a new effort by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to require the redrawing of the state's congressional map in an apparent effort to boost the GOP's chances of clinging onto its narrow House majority.
The poll also adds texture to the current turbulence in MAGA world over Epstein, which began when Attorney General Pamela Bondi hinted that new information reinforced claims that the accused sex trafficker was murdered in prison and that authorities had a list of his famous clients. Last week, however, her Justice Department released a memo saying there was no incriminating evidence about any client list and that Epstein took his own life.
For all the fury among MAGA media stars, the CNN/SSRS findings show that Trump's standing with Republicans is rock-solid at 88%.
Of course, even limited falloff of enthusiasm among the most radical members of the Trump base could still hurt Republicans in close races in next year's midterms. And MAGA podcasters keen to monetize the fury of activists will keep fanning the flames of the Epstein controversy.
But there is clearly still massive support for Trump among tens of millions of grassroots Republicans across the country.