The GCC could emerge as a winner from the remapping of the global order
https://arab.news/rbj4a
Global linkages are shifting amid geopolitical tensions, the growing influence of national economic and security considerations in policymaking, and a fractured global trade landscape. Despite some easing of recent trade tensions, investors continue to face economic ambiguity and policy unpredictability. New tariff structures are compelling businesses to rethink their strategies and major trade blocs are diversifying their trade and investment partnerships. In this unsettled climate, the demand for stability and predictability is high. The Gulf countries are well equipped to provide global investors with clarity, policy stability and predictability.
The economies of the Gulf are thriving despite global headwinds, regional conflicts and uncertainty. Sound policies, solid reform momentum and the steadfast implementation of ambitious diversification plans are reshaping the region's economic landscape. Investments in state-of-the art infrastructure, including logistics, alongside accelerated digitalization strategies and growing business efficiency have positioned Gulf Cooperation Council countries as among the top performers in global competitiveness rankings.
Spearheading the transformation are the region's sovereign wealth funds, which are among the world's largest — with assets under management expected to reach about $7 trillion by 2030. The funds have adopted a calculated approach to ensure that their domestic and global investments are in line with the strategic objectives of output diversification and intergenerational equity.
At the same time, the GCC countries are emerging as constructive global actors, demonstrating leadership in advancing both regional stability and global cooperation — further strengthening their appeal to global investors. Milestones include the launch of the G20 Common Framework — a coordinated debt relief scheme for low-income countries — under Saudi Arabia's presidency; the UAE-hosted COP28, which saw parties reach a historic agreement to transition away from fossil fuels; and the instrumental role played by Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan, as chair of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, in fostering global dialogue and cooperation during a period of global turbulence.
The Gulf countries are well equipped to provide global investors with stability and policy predictability amid global fragmentation and the remapping of the international order.
Hazar Caracalla
This is an opportune moment to build on the progress made and enhance the GCC countries' growing strategic role by advancing regional coordination and deepening integration. The foundations — policy maturity, ample capital and global leadership — are already in place. However, closer collaboration across national agendas could help further unlock their potential, particularly in light of the structural shifts underway in the global order.
Rather than pursue overlapping objectives, aligning efforts based on complementarity, country-specific niches and global changes can deepen the bloc's integration into global supply and investment chains.
Since its founding in 1981, the GCC has become a mature and successful trade and economic bloc and has made important strides toward integration. The customs union agreement eliminated intra-GCC tariffs, unified external tariffs and eased trade restrictions. More recently, the removal of local content requirements has supported intraregional trade and value chain integration.
However, as the global system is being reconfigured, with trade increasingly occurring within geopolitical blocs rather than between them — a trend highlighted by a recent International Monetary Fund analysis — the case for deepening regional integration has never been stronger. Investing in regional infrastructure and accelerating the implementation of the Gulf Railway — a strategic connectivity project — would further boost cross-border trade and investment and strengthen the Gulf's supply chains.
At the same time, advancing policies to facilitate the movement of nonnationals within the bloc, including rolling out the unified visa for tourists, would support services-driven growth, notably boosting tourism activities in line with the 2022 GCC Tourism Strategy.
Deepening integration and advancing coordination within the GCC would reinforce the bloc's growing strategic role in global trade and investment.
Hazar Caracalla
Together, these steps would enable the Gulf countries to better leverage their geostrategic location and emerging trade corridors with the EU, Africa and Asia, positioning the GCC as a vital connector across the three continents.
The GCC countries have pursued multiple bilateral free trade and comprehensive economic partnership agreements in recent years. These frameworks serve national priorities and offer many benefits. They advance integration in global value chains and trade networks, expand market access, attract foreign direct investment and support export diversification and knowledge transfer in the Gulf.
Yet there is growing value in negotiating trade agreements together as a bloc. While bilateral agreements can complement regional priorities, the benefits of a unified trade strategy are greater — particularly with large economies and trading blocs. Collectively pursuing free trade agreements with India, Indonesia, Japan, China, the UK and the EU would enhance the Gulf's global position and bargaining leverage. It would reinforce coherence within the bloc and create synergies between industrial policies and trade diversification objectives.
US President Donald Trump's recent visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE underscored the growing strategic role of GCC countries in global business and investment. The bloc can capitalize on this momentum by reinforcing coherence through deeper integration and closer coordination. This would enable the GCC to reroute trade and investment flows through the region, better harness the economic opportunities brought about by a changing global order, and channel these into more sustainable and impactful domestic transformations.
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