S&P Global warns geopolitical tensions may hit global oil demand
Premasish Das, Executive Director for Oil Markets Research, noted that geopolitical tensions and shifting trade policies, including U.S. tariffs, are slowing global growth, potentially reducing oil demand. China and the U.S. will see the biggest drop in refined fuel consumption. Despite this, India is expected to lead global oil demand growth, making diversification of crude imports a strategic necessity.
Additionally, OPEC+ recently raised oil output by 411,000 b/d, triggering a 20% drop in Brent crude prices. At the same time, conflict between Iran and Israel briefly pushed prices above $80/b. The average oil price for 2025 is now forecasted at $68/b, though increased supply could bring it below $60/b by year-end.
On the Indian side, the country's trade influence is also growing. Rahul Kapoor, Global Head of Shipping Research, highlighted India's reduced reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, down from 55% in 2019-2022 to 41% in 2024, due to rising Russian crude imports.
He stressed that global trade strategy must now consider geopolitical risks and supply chain reconfiguration, placing India at a strategic advantage.
On energy transition, Eduard Sala de Vedruna emphasized India's push to reach 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, though S&P expects the target to be met by 2032. The current capacity has surpassed 200 GW. While challenges like infrastructure and regulatory hurdles remain, government support and private investment are accelerating progress.
Jenny Yang, Head of Power and Renewables Research, projected an 80% global rise in power demand by 2050. In India, non-fossil fuels are expected to make up 77% of power capacity by then.
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