Why you should bet on Cristian Chivu to win Serie A next season with Inter Milan

New York Times

10-06-2025

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With two Champions League final appearances and a Scudetto in the last three years, Inter have emerged as one of the world's most formidable clubs. Unfortunately for the Nerazzurri, the man at the helm of that recent run — Simone Inzaghi — is off to the financially green pastures of Al Hilal in Saudi Arabia.
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After a few high-profile names were floated around as Inzaghi's replacement, Inter settled on Cristian Chivu. Let's look at the who, ponder the why and, most importantly, evaluate the Italians' odds of winning the 2025/26 title in his first season at the San Siro.
At the moment of Inzaghi's departure, several notable figures offered themselves up as respectable replacements. While a few of those individuals — Roberto De Zerbi or Luciano Spalletti — were perhaps the result of agents being, well, agents, one in particular seemed a great bet for the job: Fàbregas. In odds provided by Betfair, the Como manager was favoured at 1/2 odds to take over ahead of Chivu, who sat at 4/1.
Having just guided a promoted team to 10th-place in one of the world's most challenging leagues, Fàbregas is proving to be just as good of a manager as he was a player. He would have been a fine choice to continue Inter's run of success were it not for one glaring problem: his tactical approach.
Like De Zerbi and Spalletti, Fàbregas almost exclusively uses a back-four system. As someone who is not an avid Como fan, FBref tells us the club only deviated from deploying four at the back just twice all of last season. This contrasts with Inter's recent success, which has been largely attributed to their use of a back three.
The system supports pairing together ultra-talented strikers Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram and transforms players like Federico Dimarco and Denzel Dumfries from flawed fullbacks into ferocious wing-backs. It has also protected the defensive frailties of an ageing midfield consisting of Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Henrikh Mkhitaryan. More notably, it allowed Champions League semi-final hero Francesco Acerbi to find a way into the starting XI.
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Hiring Fàbregas wouldn't just bring in a manager with an intriguing pedigree to a ready-made side, it would also require Inter to reconfigure their squad or create awkward adjustments for the returning core. Additionally, prising him away from Como after such a historic season would be incredibly difficult; there's no guarantee the Spaniard would've said yes even if Beppe Marotta had come calling.
Chivu's brief time at Parma provides a crucial insight as to why he was ultimately Inter's choice and how he may approach the role.
In late February, Chivu was hired to stop Parma from slipping deeper into the relegation zone. During his first five games in charge, FBref data tells us that Chivu opted for a back-four system which yielded just four points. However, in their April 5 clash, ironically against Inter, Parma were credited with playing a back three — a system they would use throughout the rest of the season.
So, if you're wondering why a cult favourite with almost zero high-level managerial experience bypassed Fàbregas for the job, it likely begins and ends there.
When reviewing the Serie A landscape, it's important to remember that defending champions Napoli got lucky. Antonio Conte's men won the Scudetto despite scoring just 59 goals — a tally that actually overperformed their expected goal (xG) mark of 53. Meanwhile, Inter had the best xG differential per 90 minutes of any side in Italy and are retaining most of their talented core.
Had Fàbregas been brought on board and initiated a change in the system, fading the Nerazzurri's status as 5/2 favourites would have been a wise decision. Chivu is a complete unknown, but if he retains Inter's philosophy and formation, it makes that bet a lot more tempting. Maintaining the status quo isn't a bad thing when the team that snatched the Scudetto away from you benefited from being fortunate, and the rest of the league seems to be floundering.
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Rivals AC Milan (5/1) just lost their most talented midfielder, Tijjani Reijnders, to Manchester City. Gian Piero Gasperini is leaving Atalanta — another side that finished ahead of Napoli (3/1) in xG differential — for a rebuilding project at Roma. Juventus (5/1) haven't been close to matching Inter's underlying performance for nearly four seasons now and nothing in the Bianconeri's transfer activity suggests that will change anytime soon.
Chivu may not be the best manager Inter could have hired, but he is the one most willing to commit to the same Nerazzurri system that has bred the club their enviable success.
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(Photo of Cristian Chivu: Alessandro Sabattini / Getty Images)