Truth Social is an Unlikely New Market Barometer
Commentary
President Trump's
Truth Social
has emerged as perhaps the most important 'tip sheet' for stock market timing. Just before the biggest rally this year, President Trump wrote (before the market opening) to 'be cool,' as everything is going to work out well, then he added: 'THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!'
President Trump's
Truth Social
then pointed out that he would reveal new details about semiconductor tariffs, which happened late that Friday, April 11 after Customs & Border Protection announced that tariffs on smartphones, laptops, integrated circuits, semiconductor storage devices (e.g., flash memory and solid-state drives) and semiconductor equipment, would all be exempt from reciprocal tariffs.
President Trump next said on
Truth Social
, 'A Great Honor to have just met with the Japanese Delegation on Trade. Big Progress!' Obviously, there is a big rush to earn favorable reviews on
Truth Social
.
It's also obvious that trade barriers are falling fast. Kevin Hassett, head of the White House's National Economic Council, said the Trump Administration is now negotiating with 130 countries.
Here are the most important market news items and what this news means:
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- The notion that President Trump does not care about the stock market is false. I was talking to Fox News host Charles Payne at the MoneyShow in Dallas recently, and he told me that during Trump 1.0, economic advisor Larry Kudlow was visited multiple times during the day by President Trump to check the stock market. That is why President Trump's April 9th tip on
Truth Social
triggered the biggest one-day rally most of us will see in our lifetimes. The Trump family is now in both the money management business (via Truth Social) as well as the investment newsletter business (via Salem Media Group), so they have a vested interest to propel the overall stock market higher.
- As far as tariffs are concerned, it appears that outside of China, most reciprocal trade barriers will be eliminated. Last week, Japan was negotiating with the Trump Administration, and this week it will be South Korea's turn. Many investors, including Fed Chairman Powell, have been needlessly worried about inflation and stagflation that has not materialized. The reality is that deflation has arrived in the wake of the lowest crude oil prices in the past four years, so investors, the Fed and our allies have been unnecessarily worried over nothing.
- President Trump on
Truth Social
said that 'Powell's termination can't come quickly enough.' Trump argued that the Fed should have lowered interest rates already this year, and during his press conference with Italian Prime Minister Meloni, Trump called Powell out for being 'political.' In another
Truth Social
post, President Trump said, 'With Energy Costs way down, food prices (including Biden's egg disaster!) substantially lower, and most other 'things' trending down, there is virtually No Inflation. With these costs trending so nicely downward, just what I predicted they would do, there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW. Europe has already 'lowered' seven times.' Jerome Powell's term expires in 2026. This criticism of Fed Chairman Powell seems to be undermining the U.S. dollar, which, according to the WSJ Dollar Index has declined 8% since early January.
- Essentially, if there is a recession, President Trump will be blaming Fed Chairman Powell for failing to cut key interest rates. The recession rhetoric is undermining the U.S. dollar, but I am expecting a big rebound in the U.S. dollar, since alternative currencies like the British Pound and the euro are also amid their own recessions. Furthermore, the Chinese yuan has ultralow interest rates and devaluation rumors persist. The only real alternative to the U.S. dollar is gold, which continues to steadily rise.
- There remain other macro distractions out there like (1) potential trade negotiations with China, (2) Russia's lack of cooperation in ending the Ukraine war, and (3) impending tax reform. However, it is now time for investors to think, rather than just react.
- In the meantime, Germany Christian Democratic Party (CDU) appears to be finally taking Vice President JD Vance's advice, since the 'firewall' that kept the AfD Party away from key positions and parliamentary panels is now crumbling. The AfD Party is now the leading party in recent German polls and skillfully made alliances with other parties in Germany to gain groundswell support in the Bundestag, where they have many seats. It will be interesting to see just how much the AfD Party will be assimilated under incoming Chancellor Merz.
- The Justice Department is proceeding to break up Google in the wake of its victory to break up its internet search monopoly. This is an interesting case to watch, since when the Justice Department won its case, it was the equivalent of a 'dog catching a car.' The remedies to breaking up Google are anticipated to possibly entail a spinoff of Google's Chrome browser, but the Justice Department is getting bogged down in the details. In the end, this is a fascinating case that shows how hard it is to break up a technology monopoly.
Overall, the stock market is a manic crowd that likes to react first and think second. It is now time to think and prosper during another spectacular earnings announcement season. Spring has arrived and consumers are increasingly getting out and about, which is why the strongest retail sales in two years just occurred. So I want you to be like our Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, and 'Do Not Worry, Be Happy.'
*Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
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