
CWRDM proposes immediate steps to face monsoon crisis in Kerala
The state witnessed one of its earliest monsoon onsets in recent years. According to CWRDM, this year's pattern—marked by intense rainfall in short bursts followed by dry spells—highlights the growing need for improved disaster preparedness and smarter water management.
In just one week, from May 24 to 31, Kozhikode recorded 620 mm of rainfall—nearly 28% of the region's average monsoon total. Daily rainfall during this period crossed 60 mm, sparking fears of flash floods, waterlogging, and landslides, especially in hilly regions.
'Traditionally, Kerala's monsoon sets in around June 1. But since 1970, nearly half of the monsoons have begun in late May,' said CWRDM executive director Manoj P Samuel. 'This year's early onset is among the earliest ever—second only to May 18, 1990,' he said.
Experts link this shift to warming sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea, stronger cross-equatorial winds, and global atmospheric changes such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
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Scroll.in
01-08-2025
- Scroll.in
India likely to see above-normal rainfall in August and September, says IMD
India is expected to receive above-normal rainfall during the second half of the southwest monsoon season, which is August and September, the India Meteorological Department said on Thursday. The weather department in a press release stated that above-normal rainfall exceeding 106% of the long period average is most likely over the country during the second half of the monsoon. The long period average is the measure of the mean rainfall during the four-month monsoon season over the last 50 years. The long period average of rainfall for August to September, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 422.8 mm. In August, countrywide rainfall is likely to remain within the normal range of 94% to 106% of the long period average, the release said. The weather department said that most parts of the country are likely to receive normal rainfall in August, with the exception of the northeast and some adjoining areas in eastern India. Below-normal rainfall has been forecast for isolated parts of central and southwestern peninsular India. The IMD's forecast came as neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions prevail over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These conditions are likely to persist through the remainder of the monsoon season, according to the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System and other models. The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral but is expected to turn weakly negative by the end of the season. The El Niño Southern Oscillation is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. These phases play a significant role in shaping India's monsoon. The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in the sea surface temperatures between the western parts of the Indian Ocean near Africa and the eastern parts of the ocean near Indonesia. Neutral conditions, as currently prevailing, are generally favourable for normal monsoon activity, allowing local weather systems to function without major disruption from ocean temperature anomalies. Meanwhile, India recorded above-normal rainfall in the first half of the southwest monsoon season, with several states, particularly Himachal Pradesh, experiencing flash floods. Between June 1 and July 31, the country received 474.3 mm of rainfall, 6% above the normal of 445.8 mm for the period. The good rainfall in July was attributed to favourable Madden-Julian Oscillation conditions during the latter half of the month and the formation of six low-pressure systems. Four of these systems intensified into depressions, which continued to influence rainfall activity across northern and central India. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a large-scale tropical weather system characterised by an eastward-moving pulse of clouds, rainfall, winds and pressure that typically recurs every 30 days to 60 days and travels around the globe. It is one of the key factors driving short-term variability in monsoon rainfall.


Hans India
01-08-2025
- Hans India
Above-normal rain likely in India this monsoon
New Delhi: India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the second half of the monsoon season (August and September), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday. Most parts of the country, except the Northeast and adjoining areas of eastern India, are expected to record normal rainfall in August, said IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra during an online press conference. Rainfall in September is likely to be above normal, he said. India received above-normal rainfall during the first half of the monsoon season (June and July), with some states, particularly Himachal Pradesh, experiencing flash floods. "Overall, above-normal rainfall (106 percent of the Long Period Average of 422.8 mm) is most likely over the country during the second half of the southwest monsoon season," Mohapatra said. "Geographically, normal to above-normal rainfall is most likely across most regions, except for many parts of the northeast and adjoining eastern India, isolated regions of central India and southwestern areas of the peninsular region, where below-normal rainfall is expected." Mohapatra said subdued rainfall is expected over the next two weeks; however, the conditions do not meet the criteria for a "break monsoon phase", which refers to a temporary lull in rainfall during the monsoon when the trough shifts toward the foothills of the Himalayas. The country received 474.3 mm of rainfall against a normal of 445.8 mm from June 1 to July 31, a surplus of six per cent. The country recorded 624 very heavy rainfall events and 76 extremely heavy rainfall events, the lowest figures in the last five years, the IMD chief said. "In Northeast India, this is the fifth consecutive year of below-normal rainfall. Over the last 30 years, a declining trend in rainfall activity has been observed in the northeastern states," he added. According to Mohapatra, good rainfall in July was due to favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) conditions in the latter half of the month and the formation of six low-pressure systems spanning 28 days. Of these, four systems intensified into depressions. Among them, three formed over land and moved from Gangetic West Bengal/Northern Bay of Bengal to Rajasthan, triggering frequent heavy to very heavy rainfall and even extremely heavy rainfall on some days, the IMD said. ENSO-neutral conditions are currently prevailing and are expected to continue until October. Post-monsoon, weak La Niña conditions may develop, the IMD said. In May, the IMD forecasted that India would receive 106 percent of the long-period average rainfall of 87 cm during the June–September monsoon season. Rainfall ranging between 96 and 104 percent of this 50-year average is considered "normal". The monsoon plays a critical role in India's agriculture sector, which supports the livelihood of around 42 percent of the population and contributes 18.2 percent to the national GDP. It is also crucial for replenishing reservoirs used for drinking water and power generation.
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Business Standard
31-07-2025
- Business Standard
IMD predicts above-normal rainfall in India for August-September 2025
India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the second half of the monsoon season (August and September), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday. Most parts of the country, except the Northeast and adjoining areas of eastern India, are expected to record normal rainfall in August, said IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra during an online press conference. Rainfall in September is likely to be above normal, he said. India received above-normal rainfall during the first half of the monsoon season (June and July), with some states, particularly Himachal Pradesh, experiencing flash floods. "Overall, above-normal rainfall (106 percent of the Long Period Average of 422.8 mm) is most likely over the country during the second half of the southwest monsoon season," Mohapatra said. "Geographically, normal to above-normal rainfall is most likely across most regions, except for many parts of the northeast and adjoining eastern India, isolated regions of central India and southwestern areas of the peninsular region, where below-normal rainfall is expected." Mohapatra said subdued rainfall is expected over the next two weeks; however, the conditions do not meet the criteria for a "break monsoon phase", which refers to a temporary lull in rainfall during the monsoon when the trough shifts toward the foothills of the Himalayas. The country received 474.3 mm of rainfall against a normal of 445.8 mm from June 1 to July 31, a surplus of six per cent. The country recorded 624 very heavy rainfall events and 76 extremely heavy rainfall events, the lowest figures in the last five years, the IMD chief said. "In Northeast India, this is the fifth consecutive year of below-normal rainfall. Over the last 30 years, a declining trend in rainfall activity has been observed in the northeastern states," he added. According to Mohapatra, good rainfall in July was due to favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) conditions in the latter half of the month and the formation of six low-pressure systems spanning 28 days. Of these, four systems intensified into depressions. Among them, three formed over land and moved from Gangetic West Bengal/Northern Bay of Bengal to Rajasthan, triggering frequent heavy to very heavy rainfall and even extremely heavy rainfall on some days, the IMD said. ENSO-neutral conditions are currently prevailing and are expected to continue until October. Post-monsoon, weak La Nia conditions may develop, the IMD said. In May, the IMD forecasted that India would receive 106 percent of the long-period average rainfall of 87 cm during the JuneSeptember monsoon season. Rainfall ranging between 96 and 104 percent of this 50-year average is considered "normal". The monsoon plays a critical role in India's agriculture sector, which supports the livelihood of around 42 percent of the population and contributes 18.2 percent to the national GDP. It is also crucial for replenishing reservoirs used for drinking water and power generation.