
Dollar catches breath, Brazil real slides on tariff threat; bitcoin near record high
The dollar felt additional weight from a sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields following a strong auction of 10-year notes on Wednesday, tempering worries about the "Sell America" narrative that had seen Treasuries, the dollar and Wall Street stocks sold off in tandem earlier this year.
Overall, investors were hungry for riskier assets with the most damaging tariff scenarios looking increasingly unlikely, helping Nvidia become the first stock ever with a $4 trillion valuation, and lifting cryptocurrency bitcoin to an all-time peak just shy of $112,000.
Sentiment also drew support from minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting, with most policymakers of the opinion that interest rate cuts will be appropriate later this year.
The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers, eased 0.1% to 97.286, extending a 0.2% decline from Wednesday, the same day that it pushed to the highest since June 25 at 97.837 before losing momentum.
With the exception of Brazil, Trump's latest batch of letters to trade partners contained tariff rates close to those already proposed in his original "Liberation Day" announcement on April 2, as had been the case with other letters this week.
Trump has also left the door open to extensions beyond the new August 1 deadline if countries make compelling proposals.
Brazil had originally been slated for just the baseline 10% levy, but Trump cited not just trade practices but the treatment of its former president, Jair Bolsonaro.
Bolsonaro, who was friendly with Trump when they were both in office, is on trial on charges of plotting a coup to stop current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva from taking office in January 2023.
The real plunged as low as 5.6047 per dollar for the first time since June 6 overnight, and was last changing hands at 5.5826 per dollar.
"It is a reminder of Trump's penchant for tariffs as a tool against a wide range of grievances, trade fairness or otherwise," Taylor Nugent, senior markets economist at National Australia Bank, wrote in a client note.
While the latest batch of letters failed to move markets much outside of Brazil, Nugent said, "more interesting is the letters we haven't seen, with India, the EU, and Taiwan conspicuous examples."
Trump and other officials have said several times lately that a deal with India is close, while the European Union is also edging toward a framework agreement.
The euro gained 0.2% to $1.1747 on Thursday, while sterling added 0.2% to $1.3612.
The dollar drooped 0.3% to 145.84 yen and fell 0.3% to 0.7922 Swiss franc.
Bitcoin crept up 0.3% to around $111,114, inching back towards the all-time high hit overnight of $111,988.90.
"The new record high came on improved risk sentiment," IG analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note to clients.
"While the push to new highs hasn't yet sparked the fireworks the market might have been hoping for, there is scope for bitcoin to make further gains towards $120,000."
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Business Insider
19 minutes ago
- Business Insider
From rice to digital services, here is what's making trade negotiations difficult for the Trump administration
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Newsweek
19 minutes ago
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Russia Sends North Korea's Nukes Signal to US Allies
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Yahoo
24 minutes ago
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3 Reasons to Buy Bitcoin Before March 2028
There is a significant opportunity arriving for Bitcoin in early 2028. It's the same cyclical opportunity as there was in April 2024. Understanding these catalysts in advance means you can prepare for them. 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin › When an asset has a built-in clock that cuts new supply in half every four years, ignoring that clock is like refusing to set your alarm before a predawn flight. On that note, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) will once again slash its block reward sometime in late March or early April of 2028 in a process called the halving that makes the coin much harder to produce. That range is far enough away for complacency to set in, and close enough for disciplined investors to prepare to reap the rewards of early positioning. Halvings have a habit of rewiring market psychology and tightening supply in ways that headlines rarely capture in real time. Let's examine three reasons why loading up on this coin well before March 2028 still looks attractive. Across the last three halvings, Bitcoin rallied hard in the 12 months just before the event. Research by Coinbase tallies an average gain of 61% during the six months ahead of the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings, with most of that surge starting roughly a year out. Extrapolating that window forward lands investors in March 2027, and there's plenty of runway between now and then with which to build up a position. Why does the market front-run the actual catalyst? In short, because Bitcoin miners know their future revenue will halve, so they hoard their inventory or buy coins to bolster their reserves. Long-term holders refuse to part with coins when they see miners tightening supply. New buyers, noticing the pullback in exchange balances, scramble to secure positions. The feedback loop is thus self-fulfilling until something breaks or the halving passes. Could 2028 disappoint the trend? Absolutely. Each cycle's pre-halving pop has been a bit smaller than the last, and regulatory surprises or a liquidity crunch could blunt investor enthusiasm for buying risk assets. Still, betting that the pattern simply vanishes requires believing that human nature around scarcity has changed, which seems unlikely. Cutting the drip of new coins in half is one thing. The market actually feeling the drought is another. In prior halving cycles, Bitcoin printed its largest percentage gains not before but after the halving, often starting approximately 12 months later, once the shock to daily issuance was fully absorbed. The average rally across the six months following past halvings was a staggering 348%. Mechanically, this was caused by fewer new coins reaching exchanges each day. Unless demand evaporates, buyers must then bid to compete to secure their portion of the dwindling float, and miners, who are now earning fewer coins, have even less inventory to dump into rallies. The imbalance widens until the price finds a new equilibrium. If 2028 plays out even half as strongly as the post-halving periods have in history, skipping out on pre-halving accumulation could mean paying dramatically higher prices just to establish a stake later on. Knowing a catalyst like the halving is coming does not solve the oldest investing problem: letting emotions get in the way of sound strategy. On this front, dollar-cost averaging, which is to say setting up recurring purchases of an asset regardless of its price, sidesteps the emotional quagmire of market timing. And Bitcoin, with its long time horizon for delivering returns, is an asset that is particularly well suited for dollar-cost averaging. From now until early 2028, there are approximately 140 weekly paychecks ahead. Commit a small slice of each, and volatility in Bitcoin's price becomes your ally. Drawdowns refill your shopping cart at a discount, while rallies lift the value of the stack you've built. The result is an average cost basis that tends to undercut lump-sum buys by smoothing out the peaks and valleys. For most investors, systematic buying is the least stressful path to ride a volatile asset into a known supply crunch. In that vein, starting to dollar-cost average well before March 2028 is about giving yourself time to average in, time for buying unforeseen dips, and time for the halving's historic patterns to play out. Waiting until headlines scream "halving tomorrow" leaves little room for either discipline or luck. Before you buy stock in Bitcoin, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Bitcoin wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $674,432!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,005,854!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,049% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 180% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 7, 2025 Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool recommends Coinbase Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. 3 Reasons to Buy Bitcoin Before March 2028 was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data